MJHUB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 4-6 on top of my 4. 8-10 in 3 days. First WWA of the season. Pats winning the AFC championship. Might head to foxwoods feeling awfully lucky right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I like a solid 4"-6" band for most of SNE. Even up to the Rt 2 corridor. You can see a band of frontogenesis up to the north from 750mb-650mb even north of the Pike so I think there will be a weenie band up north. I don't think we'll see too many 6"+ readings outside of OES enhancement given relatively meager lift. The storms that overproduce tend to have a weenie omega bullseye around -15c which we don't have. tend to agree overall...a general 3 to 6 deal...big by this winter's standards and welcomed by all. LOL. OT but this is cool - shows last night's event really well...make sure you click it to make it full size: http://www.capecodweather.net/2012/01/20/excellent-hi-res-satellite-image/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Appreciate the analysis but bottom line....what a turnaround from the +4 for the month to have snow 2 out of 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 tend to agree overall...a general 3 to 6 deal...big by this winter's standards and welcomed by all. LOL. OT but this is cool - shows last night's event really well...make sure you click it to make it full size: http://www.capecodwe...atellite-image/ Aw man I was hoping you had the radar loop from last night, looking for the VV scans for that Meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah lift will not be uber by any means. I think we could see a good band or two across CT into se MA and then maybe another band north. That's where the good ratios would be...I think. I did like seeing it cold aloft, so any good lift into the DGZ will be able to tap into that. What value numerically would you consider "good" lift? Something < -15 ub/s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Aw man I was hoping you had the radar loop from last night, looking for the VV scans for that Meso i can put them together if you'd like. i'll post it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 curious as to what wxfella's favorite MOS snow guidance is seeing/not seeing. it's not good anywhere. i always find it interesting when it shows something out of whack with the actual model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 BTW from earlier today: How does this make sense to anyone? This is exactly why I rarely show non-convective NWS watches and warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For the Equatorial CT peeps .. For the weirdos in Litchfield County and "GC" as they call it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Aw man I was hoping you had the radar loop from last night, looking for the VV scans for that Meso Steve I can't do this right now but maybe you can? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/ You should be able to get the loop to load there. If you can't save it directly, maybe download a trial of techsmits screen capture software where you can run the loop and make an avi? can you do? http://www.techsmith.com/camtasia.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What value numerically would you consider "good" lift? Something < -15 ub/s? Yeah or so. That's actually a good looking omega profile. Nothing crazy but definitely "enough" lift through DGZ. The jet streak to the north is helping with lift through the troposphere in the right entrance region across most of SNE (outside far N areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I like a solid 4"-6" band for most of SNE. Even up to the Rt 2 corridor. You can see a band of frontogenesis up to the north from 750mb-650mb even north of the Pike so I think there will be a weenie band up north. I don't think we'll see too many 6"+ readings outside of OES enhancement given relatively meager lift. The storms that overproduce tend to have a weenie omega bullseye around -15c which we don't have. Yeah I think there will def be a weenie band somewhere near I-90 or maybe north for a time. Then the better bands with the more robust lift and frontogenesis over CT/RI/ and se mass..prob just south of BOS. At least I can envision that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 When I look at this one, is seems like it has trouble getting going in our location, and then once it's finally underway, it's already almost over. I'm thinking relatively short duration, low intensity. 3" tops. But hey, I'd love to be wrong. Yeah I could see 3. This morning I put my area at 4"..going wih 4.7" for now, so 3-5" range should suffice for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 anyone got a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ray 3.8" But someone will get screwed between me and Ray I think. If there is another band to the north..it could be between myself and Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah or so. That's actually a good looking omega profile. Nothing crazy but definitely "enough" lift through DGZ. The jet streak to the north is helping with lift through the troposphere in the right entrance region across most of SNE (outside far N areas) Okay, thanks Ryan. Just read your blog write-up. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Coming to a place in SNE tomorrow. KORD 201851Z 07004KT 1/4SM R14R/2000V3000FT +SN VV008 M08/M11 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP205 SNINCR 1/1 P0005 T10781106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i can put them together if you'd like. i'll post it later. Cool was a really neat feature. Could see the rotating between SE CT and LI and it ran right along the coast before crossing over my head and hooking out NW of Ptown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ray 3.8" But someone will get screwed between me and Ray I think. If there is another band to the north..it could be between myself and Ray. Next sentence implies screwed is good? Otherwise, D'oh! I'd go 3.2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 OT...but presuming temps dropping to low 20s or lower by midnight tonigt, today and tomorrow will end the Sunday-Saturday 7 day week with 5 days below normal. Impressive in 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Snowblower or bust tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Next sentence implies screwed is good? Otherwise, D'oh! I'd go 3.2" here. No..I mean mesoscale banding is tough to tell, but I think something may try to form near I-90 and north. It may not be strong, but jsut a guess. If everything comes in a little more stronger or north, than that will help. There is some strong WAA at 850 so that has to go somewhere. Makes me think that banding is possible away from the larger lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's frigid here now ..17 with that intense wind. I was just out in the field with the farrier as he trimmed the horses hoofs....thinking this just may be too intense (arctic air) to allow much from the storm this far north. Models all around .2 or a little better,,,, OT...but presuming temps dropping to low 20s or lower by midnight tonigt, today and tomorrow will end the Sunday-Saturday 7 day week with 5 days below normal. Impressive in 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking at great lakes radar, pretty impressive, I would guess this snow will move in prior to what models show and leave quicker too, (outside eastern areas) warm air advection waits for no man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking at great lakes radar, pretty impressive, I would guess this snow will move in prior to what models show and leave quicker too, (outside eastern areas) warm air advection waits for no man. Also, with cold mid levels and decent thermal gradient with the above normal SST, OES may preceed the real deal for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ray 3.8" But someone will get screwed between me and Ray I think. If there is another band to the north..it could be between myself and Ray. He won't be too pleased..but will say"my forecast of 5-15 for Jan looks good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He won't be too pleased..but will say"my forecast of 5-15 for Jan looks good" I think he does better than expected. It's like MPM worrying about qpf to the last minute and then booking 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I feel decent for 3-5"...maybe 6" if I get in one of those bands on the northern edge of the system. I hope it waits until like 6-7am to start and holds on until at least 3-4pm...but they always start earlier and end earlier as LL said.The BOX map is pretty bullish. I think minimum I would get is 3" and maximum is 6"...I honestly would be surprised it my total came in outside of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He won't be too pleased..but will say"my forecast of 5-15 for Jan looks good" Well I could be wrong. I'm also entertaining the idea, that this possible band might not get going until last minute. The forcing increases just as the low goes east of NJ, so maybe something forming near BOS to Kev, but then moving ese. Another possibility...and seems very real. Anyways, hope it does form. It's kind of pointless to continue talk of this, but I always find development of banding, kind of fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Snowblower or bust tomorrow. Leaf blower might work, too. It will be poofy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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