CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So can you give us some numbers for all of SNE? Phil hates when i put him on the spot and won't answer so I'll ask you. I could see 5" or almost 7".I'll say 5.9" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If models tick north, it could def be closer to 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I could see 5" or almost 7".I'll say 5.9" for now. I meant for all areas..not mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I meant for all areas..not mine yea sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I could see the snow coming in rather lackluster, but then once the low gets its feet wet, the shield will really blossom and bulge north. I think if we do get good lift in the 700-600 layer...those could be the good 20:1 ratios. I don't the ratios will be as good as I did yesterday. Though the atmosphere is cold the -12c isotherm for many places is above 600mb. I would prefer to see it a bit lower. I do like seeing some decent divergence co-located with good warm advection around and shortly after 12z with a nice 300mb jet streak over central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And for the NNE weenies...0.10 cuts through LEB into extreme SW ME Thanks. 1.3" sounds about right. Nice to see flakes in the air on a Saturday afternoon in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You guys are like MPM with the qpf lol. It's a solid low end warming storm with ratios although the Euro had a good idea last night in rough terms of the aerial extent it whacked it on QPF amounts in the area with the best lift. So I'd agree....if the dynamics are good and the circle of power agreees, we go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Box issued WWA for all of MA,CT,RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 although the Euro had a good idea last night in rough terms of the aerial extent it whacked it on QPF amounts in the area with the best lift. So I'd agree....if the dynamics are good and the circle of power agreees, we go with that. Euro does well with the areas of qpf..but as we've seen in many storms it tends to be on the low end upon verification..whereas the NAM is always too high. A blend of those 2 would yiield a solid 4-8 inch snowfall for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't the ratios will be as good as I did yesterday. Though the atmosphere is cold the -12c isotherm for many places is above 600mb. I would prefer to see it a bit lower. I do like seeing some decent divergence co-located with good warm advection around and shortly after 12z with a nice 300mb jet streak over central New England. one thing that's concerning me a bit is the lift on the GFS is a bit meh. but i suppose the antecedent airmass will help offset that a bit...don't need a ton to make things work in such a cold environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't the ratios will be as good as I did yesterday. Though the atmosphere is cold the -12c isotherm for many places is above 600mb. I would prefer to see it a bit lower. I do like seeing some decent divergence co-located with good warm advection around and shortly after 12z with a nice 300mb jet streak over central New England. I think the better bands will have great ratios as the lift will punch into the DGZ. The weaker bands I think may be like 12:1 or something. But I think most areas may be closer to 15:1 or so I suppose. Plus near the coast, you can have lift at like -9C and have good flakes thanks to salt nuclei. There is a warm punch at 850 may have a say, but I like seeing the levels from 700mb to 600mb cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 sweet!! Box snow map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I meant for all areas..not mine Phil 5.8" Will 5.5" Me 4.8" Bob 6.8" Messenger 6.0" Ryan 5.8" Messenger and esp Phil are a little questionable since the lower levels will be close to freezing. I could see someone in PYM or BRS counties pulling 7"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 sweet!! Box snow map http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php Southern CT special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 WSW's up for SW CT, WWA's for C-E CT Any chance we all get bumped (maybe not immediate shoreline) to WWs in all of CT? Just glad we are on the potential of something more than a trace of snow that melts as soon as the sun peeks out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For the Equatorial CT peeps .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Phil 5.8" Will 5.5" Me 4.8" Bob 6.8" Messenger 6.0" Ryan 5.8" Messenger and esp Phil are a little questionable since the lower levels will be close to freezing. I could see someone in PYM or BRS counties pulling 7"+ I think we'll end up closer to 3" with this one. Just don't like the look of it for us for any more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think we'll end up closer to 3" with this one. Just don't like the look of it for us for any more than that. If I had to put a range out, I would say 3-5", so it would certainly fall into it. There are some things I like with this, so we'll see what happens. But we also need to be aware of the nrn shield getting eaten away, if the dynamics are poor. Something I'm aware of too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think the better bands will have great ratios as the lift will punch into the DGZ. The weaker bands I think may be like 12:1 or something. But I think most areas may be closer to 15:1 or so I suppose. Plus near the coast, you can have lift at like -9C and have good flakes thanks to salt nuclei. There is a warm punch at 850 may have a say, but I like seeing the levels from 700mb to 600mb cold. Oh yeah we'll get good snow growth but we're not seeing weenie omega through the SGZ like i'd like to see if this were to become an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW our in-house model. You can see the nude messenger OES bands extending east to west off of BOS and PYM. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Oh yeah we'll get good snow growth but we're not seeing weenie omega through the SGZ like i'd like to see if this were to become an overperformer. Yeah lift will not be uber by any means. I think we could see a good band or two across CT into se MA and then maybe another band north. That's where the good ratios would be...I think. I did like seeing it cold aloft, so any good lift into the DGZ will be able to tap into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Phil 5.8" Will 5.5" Me 4.8" Bob 6.8" Messenger 6.0" Ryan 5.8" Messenger and esp Phil are a little questionable since the lower levels will be close to freezing. I could see someone in PYM or BRS counties pulling 7"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I could see the I-90 region being closer to 4-4.5" if the nrn edge is a little further south, or if it gets eaten away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Phil 5.8" Will 5.5" Me 4.8" Bob 6.8" Messenger 6.0" Ryan 5.8" Messenger and esp Phil are a little questionable since the lower levels will be close to freezing. I could see someone in PYM or BRS counties pulling 7"+ Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If I had to put a range out, I would say 3-5", so it would certainly fall into it. There are some things I like with this, so we'll see what happens. But we also need to be aware of the nrn shield getting eaten away, if the dynamics are poor. Something I'm aware of too. When I look at this one, is seems like it has trouble getting going in our location, and then once it's finally underway, it's already almost over. I'm thinking relatively short duration, low intensity. 3" tops. But hey, I'd love to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 sweet!! Box snow map http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php Little purple dot for 6-8 right over Mt Tolland on that map. It's as if I drew the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 sweet!! Box snow map http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php I like the 6-8" dot over KTOL....Maybe that can move a few miles north over my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I like a solid 4"-6" band for most of SNE. Even up to the Rt 2 corridor. You can see a band of frontogenesis up to the north from 750mb-650mb even north of the Pike so I think there will be a weenie band up north. I don't think we'll see too many 6"+ readings outside of OES enhancement given relatively meager lift. The storms that overproduce tend to have a weenie omega bullseye around -15c which we don't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Little purple dot for 6-8 right over Mt Tolland on that map. It's as if I drew the map I like the 6-8" dot over KTOL....Maybe that can move a few miles north over my house? I guess we saw that at the same time...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Little purple dot for 6-8 right over Mt Tolland on that map. It's as if I drew the map I am all purple, nice, bout them purple dots, 70s was a mean era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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