snowNH Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 So unimpressive. 1-3" north of the Pike. 2-4" south of the Pike. Next. But seriously, that SW is so pathetic as modeled. Next? In this freaking winter? You're joking right? I've come to the realization that I will never see a sub 990 low near the cape for 10 years .. Mmmmmmmmm Brady in AFCCG Mmmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'll see what the euro did in the morning. Still think 3-4" may be possible, but it may be weenie optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z nam is damn cold on saturday. Highs in low 20s?? i bet the euro weeklies didnt show this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i bet the euro weeklies didnt show this They do show 4 weeks of warmth and no snow for the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 They do show 4 weeks of warmth and no snow for the mid atlantic not what i heard...week 4 is -NAO and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 not what i heard...week 4 is -NAO and snow week 4 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW I'm just watching the news on DVR, Todd G on Channel 4 says 3-6" Boston to Worcester south.....pretty much everyone south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah the trend so far at 00z is to make the s/w less impressive...as we always say, these often bump north at the last second, but that s/w is being sampled for the first time on land, so this might end up more sheared out. So we be on the northern end looking for the weenie band and ptype issues should be absent from just about all of our region. Barring the EURO, I'm ready to back off to 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW I'm just watching the news on DVR, Todd G on Channel 4 says 3-6" Boston to Worcester south.....pretty much everyone south of the pike. Good call attm. Last trends tomorrow. I think this ticks north last second, but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro is a tick south of 12z...but not much...about 0.30" for the ORH-BOS region...kind of like the NAM. Jackpot is S CT with maybe 0.40"...qpf isn't overly high anywhere. But that is going to happen if it gets a bit more sheared as dynamics will be less. Still a pretty decent event though as ratios should be well above 10 to 1 with good snow growth shown on most guidance plus that signal for a weenie band on the northern edge of the decent qpf. If it ticks a lick back north, that will probably be really nice for a more enhanced fronto band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro is a tick south of 12z...but not much...about 0.30" for the ORH-BOS region...kind of like the NAM. Jackpot is S CT with maybe 0.40"...qpf isn't overly high anywhere. But that is going to happen if it gets a bit more sheared as dynamics will be less. Still a pretty decent event though as ratios should be well above 10 to 1 with good snow growth shown on most guidance plus that signal for a weenie band on the northern edge of the decent qpf. If it ticks a lick back north, that will probably be really nice for a more enhanced fronto band. 2-4"\3-5" fluff job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 2-4"\3-5" fluff job Most likely...but gotta watch for a little CSI band somewhere that could give a weenie total higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Most likely...but gotta watch for a little CSI band somewhere that could give a weenie total higher. Yea, I may not be in a bad zone for that, assuming current trend is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yea, I may not be in a bad zone for that, assuming current trend is done. Yeah...isn't there usually a weenie band at the northern edge of precip on these. Usually I'm modeled to getting .2" or .3"+ better than say MHT, but they end up with the same if not more SF than me because of the northern weenie band. I'd take the current 2-5" as modeled and run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah...isn't there usually a weenie band at the northern edge of precip on these. Usually I'm modeled to getting .2" or .3"+ better than say MHT, but they end up with the same if not more SF than me because of the northern weenie band. I'd take the current 2-5" as modeled and run though. Both the GFS and NAM have the best region of ML frontogensis over SNE and a lowered area of EPV...so that suggests that a weenie band will develop on the north side of this...that isn't always the case in these events, but its definitely there in this one. Even though its south with the qpf...the best region of ML fronto on the GFS goes like right over Ray and back to my area and into NW CT...so its something to watch. Its possible Ray is ripping SN+ in that setup while people to the south with similar echoes are baking soda at 1/2 SM SN with worse ratios. We can't really say too much yet on this though, it could trend more sheared out or it could trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 These weenie bands on the north edge are tough to predict, but all indications are that there will be one as long as guidance doesn't drastically change. They are tough to predict where they will hit, but in places that do that get them, they usually can outscore predicted/modeled snowfall by a factor of 2 or so...in extreme cases by 3 or 4...but that doesn't look like a case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Will, Does this mean that Amherst, NH may get more then just a snow shower? Just curious after reading what EricNH stated that is what I am expecting. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Will, Does this mean that Amherst, NH may get more then just a snow shower? Just curious after reading what EricNH stated that is what I am expecting. thanks lol yes you should get 2-4 inches of fluff maybe a spot higher in some areas with the weenie band lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This has the possibility of being our best event since October (not counting the back-to-back events GC and PF got last Thursday-Friday), so I think we should all be thrilled by the qpf/ratios that are modeled at this point. Good luck to all--I hope to read exciting reports tonight/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This has the possibility of being our best event since October (not counting the back-to-back events GC and PF got last Thursday-Friday), so I think we should all be thrilled by the qpf/ratios that are modeled at this point. Good luck to all--I hope to read exciting reports tonight/Saturday. Have a safe trip mike!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Have a safe trip mike!!! Thanks, Jay. I really hated waking up this morning!!!! Hell, you proably haven't even gone to bed. So weird (and horrible) to be awake before the 06 NAM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks, Jay. I really hated waking up this morning!!!! Hell, you proably haven't even gone to bed. So weird (and horrible) to be awake before the 06 NAM!! Having funky sleep schedule right now..... actually miss being up early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well--compared to the 00z run, looks like the 06z NAM is holding steady, perhaps a smidge cooler but with a bit more qpf north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM verbatim is 5-10" along and just south of the pike. I likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thank god im not down south what a ctease this storm is for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 OKX posted advisories and storm watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This looks like a solid 4-8" from a BOS to Springfield, MA line southward, probably more towards the 7-8" mark near Taunton, MA, 3-5" on the Cape and Islands and closer to 2-4" near Springfield and NW MA, with SCT and RI getting in on the 3-6" mark. Again down here in SC is rough this time of year knowing that I'm missing out on snow constantly, but I'm going to be in a nicer and warmer place as well as watch the PATS/Ravens game from the confines of my dorm room and not with my family which stinks. Anyways hope everyone here had a great 2011, I had a rocky one, but nonetheless my first year in the USAF has been a busy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Based on overnight stuff..this loooks like a solid 4-7 inch snowfall from about the Mass/NH border south with local lollis to 8. I think for you worriers the Euro shifts a bit north at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Based on overnight stuff..this loooks like a solid 4-7 inch snowfall from about the Mass/NH border south with local lollis to 8. I think for you worriers the Euro shifts a bit north at 12z. I agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Based on overnight stuff..this loooks like a solid 4-7 inch snowfall from about the Mass/NH border south with local lollis to 8. I think for you worriers the Euro shifts a bit north at 12z. Congrats. Looks decent for down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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