CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 There probably will be some OES and maybe even some CF enhancement close to the MA coastline, so long as the low doesn't go too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What a beautiful run for this area, hope it holds. Solid 4-8 inches of snow here. Yep, Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yea, as long as the SW remains decent, then I may end up in one of the better bands up here.....but if it *hits the bed, then all bets are off. The s/w was less impressive on this run which is why it was further south...but even with a pathetic looking s/w, it still managed like 0.3" up here. I've been going with a 3-6" type event for the last day or two for most of the region and would need to see some pretty big trends south to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Might be a bit overdone on its qpf but I like the track and thermal profiles I'm not even looking at the qpf. I just like the track overall. It's rides that thermal gradient right along the coastline. Should produce some nice 1/2" to 1" per hr type stuff for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 South of the Pike special. An inch or two for Will... while Mt. Socks is smokin' cirrus. no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 South of the Pike special. An inch or two for Will... while Mt. Socks is smokin' cirrus. Probably a nice subsidence zone and local minimum setting up in Hartford with that northeast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The s/w was less impressive on this run which is why it was further south...but even with a pathetic looking s/w, it still managed like 0.3" up here. I've been going with a 3-6" type event for the last day or two for most of the region and would need to see some pretty big trends south to change that. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Probably a nice subsidence zone and local minimum setting up in Hartford with that northeast flow. Doubt it in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Oops my bad, wrong thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That is some meager pva right there. Some good waa on the nose of that jet doing a lot of the work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Same. Don't forget ratios should be darn good, so 0.25" easily gets you into 3-6" range. I guessed to Will about 4-5" for BOS, so I'm in the 3-6" thinking as well for now. If it goes north, we'll get more, but even something like the NAM, allows for better ratios. So sometimes it is not a linear relationship, where if QPF goes down, snowfall will go down just as much...if you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That is some meager pva right there. Some good waa on the nose of that jet doing a lot of the work Yeah pretty much all warm advection driven. Thankfully a nice low level baroclinic zone as the cold dome wedges south from northern New England and upstate NY. I always like seeing a tight thickness gradient overhead while one of these waves is riding under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah pretty much all warm advection driven. Thankfully a nice low level baroclinic zone as the cold dome wedges south from northern New England and upstate NY. I always like seeing a tight thickness gradient overhead while one of these waves is riding under us. I may not be educated as a MET but you explained my post above in better terms. It's as good a setup as we've seen all season asice from Oct. around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I may not be educated as a MET but you explained my post above in better terms. It's as good a setup as we've seen all season asice from Oct. around here. And this time we don't have water temps in the low 60s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good luck on Saturday down your way,Some of you guys need one to get off the schneid since october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Snow numbers at BOS are 4 on the MET. Spilled that 4 north to BOS along the coast. South coastal CT/RI/MA looks good as well. Most in northern MA are at 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam again has upper teens-low 20s surface temps for the elevated interior...mid 20s for the coast and upper 20s/low 30s on the cape. Despite that, actually looks like some temp issues for far se mass...maybe ice at the height? Sleet? Looks better for NJ then se mass at hour 42-45...def some taint going on there. Regardless, its almost 100% snow, but it does show maybe a very brief mix in that one area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z nam is damn cold on saturday. Highs in low 20s?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 21z srefs continue to bump up snowfall probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z nam is damn cold on saturday. Highs in low 20s?? 21z srefs continue to bump up snowfall probs Euro was similar with like upper teens / low 20s. Yeah even some 4" probs showing up s of the pike ct/RI/ se MA/cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro was similar with like upper teens / low 20s. Yeah even some 4" probs showing up s of the pike ct/RI/ se MA/cape http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_21z/f12s48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro was similar with like upper teens / low 20s. Yeah even some 4" probs showing up s of the pike ct/RI/ se MA/cape South of the pike special. How many times will kevin say that tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Look at the heavier line right along the pike. Experience with these says shift that to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 South of the pike special. How many times will kevin say that tomorrow? <<ctblizz>> Withe that H to the N, there was no way this was coming N. S trend FTW! <<ctblizz>> Don't forget the AITs in the other thread. LOL. I honestly feel pretty confident about calling for at least a 2-4" tye deal for mby in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS south of 18z it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS south of 18z it appears. Yeah the trend so far at 00z is to make the s/w less impressive...as we always say, these often bump north at the last second, but that s/w is being sampled for the first time on land, so this might end up more sheared out. So we be on the northern end looking for the weenie band and ptype issues should be absent from just about all of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS also looks to hold back the s/w a little which may help saturday pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So unimpressive. 1-3" north of the Pike. 2-4" south of the Pike. Next. But seriously, that SW is so pathetic as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah the trend so far at 00z is to make the s/w less impressive...as we always say, these often bump north at the last second, but that s/w is being sampled for the first time on land, so this might end up more sheared out. So we be on the northern end looking for the weenie band and ptype issues should be absent from just about all of our region. It's not even all that different in terms of QPF. Like we said..it won't be a linear deal with the lift so far north due to the strong WAA. Hopefully the s/w can get a little more juiced up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Even though gfs is south I like the look of that 300mb jet streak over CNE with some nice divergence over southern areas especially. Coupled with a nice burst of warm advection I think it's still decent barring a continued trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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