CT Rain Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I really like the cold thicknesses on Saturday nosing south... should produce an overperforming thump of warm advection snows. Also good dendritic growth I think with relatively cold mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I really like the cold thicknesses on Saturday nosing south... should produce an overperforming thump of warm advection snows. Also good dendritic growth I think with relatively cold mid levels. Yep, and some decent deformation and weak stability it seems too. Trying to stress for people not to pay attention to the QPF, because there will e a lot of lighter snows well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yep, and some decent deformation and weak stability it seems too. Trying to stress for people not to pay attention to the QPF, because there will e a lot of lighter snows well north. Yeah I like what I'm seeing for Saturday. It's not going to be a big storm but the signs for a good thump are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like how on the 18z runs the shortwave was a bit more defined in one piece when ejected into northern plains. The 18z NAM was healthiest looking with it which isn't a surprise given it furthest north...you can see it in south dakota at 24h and Iowa at 30 hours...compare it to some of the suppressed guidance and you can see how its different. It increases frontogensis and taps slightly into southern moisture better....but its a fine line. If you juice that s/w up too much then we introduce ptype issues into many areas....but obviously if you keep it almost undefined, then you end up with a weak band of 2-4" as the max with 1-3" of fluff north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like how on the 18z runs the shortwave was a bit more defined in one piece when ejected into northern plains. The 18z NAM was healthiest looking with it which isn't a surprise given it furthest north...you can see it in south dakota at 24h and Iowa at 30 hours...compare it to some of the suppressed guidance and you can see how its different. It increases frontogensis and taps slightly into southern moisture better....but its a fine line. If you juice that s/w up too much then we introduce ptype issues into many areas....but obviously if you keep it almost undefined, then you end up with a weak band of 2-4" as the max with 1-3" of fluff north of that. Hell I'll take 2" of snow and pingers and ZR at this point lol. Something to talk about. Looks cold at the sfc. This is Ginx sneaky LL cold lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yep, and some decent deformation and weak stability it seems too. Trying to stress for people not to pay attention to the QPF, because there will e a lot of lighter snows well north. If I were not basking in the sun, you know I'd be moanin' and groanin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Should the amount of dry air in the best snowgrowth zone be a concern at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Northern stream s/w is more amplified. This is usually the trend within these La Nina gradient regimes. Preferably, the s/w also slows down a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, this thread is dead with tonights snow going on. Anyway, with the 18z trends I feel good about 4-6". Would like the gfs/ec to go slightly N but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 nam bufkit shows 6.0" at BDL. That would be nice if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 SREFs looked like they may have ticked south just a bit at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 SREFs looked like they may have ticked south just a bit at 21z. There's still the NCEP page but no sref probs until tomorrow.... Some SREF products are not updating due to a hardware failure on the machine that does the bulk of the SREF product processing for the e-Wall. We are working to resolve the problems and hope to have full functionality restored by sometime on Friday, January 20. Thanks for your patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM looks less impressive with the shortwave...should tick south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Definitely south...looks like snow for parts of S PA/N MD at 6z Saturday...18z was not really even close to snow to start in those locations. Hopefully the gfs and ec come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM does blossom snow over the south coast, last min. Good snow event for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice event out here on that NAM run...some good VVs pop right overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam is a disastah north of Ksleet. Looks good for CT/RI/SE MASS/ CAPE...solid 4-6" there. Looks like it quickly dwindles to 1-3" in most of mass to nothing north of ma/nh border verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What a beautiful run for this area, hope it holds. Solid 4-8 inches of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam is nice to me. I'll take that setup any day of the week. I'm expecting 3-5/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd wait on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What a beautiful run for this area, hope it holds. Solid 4-8 inches of snow here. Yeah great event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice event out here on that NAM run...some good VVs pop right overhead I like it as well. Solid event right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah its great south of CT/MA border. North of their might be fine with ratios/snow growth...despite qpf of about .25... the snow map on instant weather maps shows 3-5" to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam is nice to me. I'll take that setup any day of the week. I'm expecting 3-5/6. Yeah probably 0.30 from BOS to ORH...but as Scott said, people need to not get obsessed with the qpf fetish...there's actually a pretty decent signal for a weenie frontogenesis band coupled with a hint of lower stability in that zone...and as often is the case, we'll prob see models bump the qpf north a bit as they get closer and recognize the dynamic there....assuming other stuff doesn't trend negative. The key is where the dynamics are focused...the weaker/more sheared shortwave focuses the dynamics in a weaker fashion further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 crap run for me in southern nh just a few snowshowers on this run! sucks! so thats it gfs,nam and euro are all to far south for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Believe that when I see it, but the way this winter has transpired imby, it wouldn't suprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I like it as well. Solid event right there. Might be a bit overdone on its qpf but I like the track and thermal profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah probably 0.30 from BOS to ORH...but as Scott said, people need to not get obsessed with the qpf fetish...there's actually a pretty decent signal for a weenie frontogenesis band coupled with a hint of lower stability in that zone...and as often is the case, we'll prob see models bump the qpf north a bit as they get closer and recognize the dynamic there....assuming other stuff doesn't trend negative. The key is where the dynamics are focused...the weaker/more sheared shortwave focuses the dynamics in a weaker fashion further SE. Yea, as long as the SW remains decent, then I may end up in one of the better bands up here.....but if it *hits the bed, then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 South of the Pike special. An inch or two for Will... while Mt. Socks is smokin' cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 South of the Pike special. An inch or two for Will... while Mt. Socks is smokin' cirrus. I'd really be in an FU seaonal sliver if that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.