Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In my experience you get carried away if you assume fluff factor on top of the NAM qpf output. The best way to handle the NAM is just assume 10-1 snow ratios.... Then if the qpf goes down by like 30% in the last couple runs you don't get dissappointed. So if the NAM says .5" now ...assume 5 inches of snow. Then if tomorrow night's NAM cuts you to .35, but you actually get 15-1 ratios...well you still got your 5 inches. Between 30-40% of getting 0.25" or greater in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In my experience you get carried away if you assume fluff factor on top of the NAM qpf output. The best way to handle the NAM is just assume 10-1 snow ratios.... Then if the qpf goes down by like 30% in the last couple runs you don't get dissappointed. So if the NAM says .5" now ...assume 5 inches of snow. Then if tomorrow night's NAM cuts you to .35, but you actually get 15-1 ratios...well you still got your 5 inches. LOL, why did you quote me on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOL, why did you quote me on this? LOL - he does that all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm not surprised it's trending north now. The surprise to me was that the much vaunted Euro also got cold feet and went south the last two runs. I expect it will bump back north at 0Z. You're forgetting one of the commandments... Thou shalt not get thy hopes up over the 18z NAM Trend thus far this season is to trend north and screw our area...it only stands to reason that when we get breathing room, the trend will reverse and still screw our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah ,,,,didn't mean it to respond to anything you said. Was actually thinking of something Kevin said earlier about locking in significant snow amounts. LOL, why did you quote me on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like 18z GFS a little more north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z GFS is a touch more juiced...looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z GFS is a touch more juiced...looks good. Looks very near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks very near the BM. yeah looks like it goes right over it. would likely mix and/or flip out here for a time midday...but better precip for a good chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Liking the trend on the 18Z data. Looks like the Saturday event should get my seasonal total past the 50" mark. I stand at 46.5" now, 26.8" from October. Hard to believe given how little they've had out toward ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Liking the trend on the 18Z data. Looks like the Saturday event should get my seasonal total past the 50" mark. I stand at 46.5" now, 26.8" from October. Hard to believe given how little they've had out toward ALB. 50"?! I'm just trying to break 10" (4.3" from OCT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah looks like it goes right over it. would likely mix and/or flip out here for a time midday...but better precip for a good chunk of SNE. It was weak on the lift and precip, even for looking a little better. Probably would be better if we had strong lift. GFS soundings were pretty cold until the very end it seemed, for HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah ....tonight + Saturday just might get me to 30 inches..... I only had 8 inches in the late October stuff. Liking the trend on the 18Z data. Looks like the Saturday event should get my seasonal total past the 50" mark. I stand at 46.5" now, 26.8" from October. Hard to believe given how little they've had out toward ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 And besides, given the shifts in guidance..one might expect something either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It was weak on the lift and precip, even for looking a little better. Probably would be better if we had strong lift. GFS soundings were pretty cold until the very end it seemed, for HYA. one thing that continues to be present is a very large mid-level RH field...so should be an expansive area of snow...not one of those sharp cut-offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2.7 since October hoping to break my 5 inch nut by Saturday midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Liking the trend on the 18Z data. Looks like the Saturday event should get my seasonal total past the 50" mark. I stand at 46.5" now, 26.8" from October. Hard to believe given how little they've had out toward ALB. Just over 40" here, Mitch. I'd like to see if we can double that before mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Liking the trend on the 18Z data. Looks like the Saturday event should get my seasonal total past the 50" mark. I stand at 46.5" now, 26.8" from October. Hard to believe given how little they've had out toward ALB. We've done well here all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 brad field nbc30 chucking 3-6"....warm up da bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just over 40" here, Mitch. I'd like to see if we can double that before mid-April. So would I, that would get us to an average winter. We could do it, especially if February and March produce. I believe Pete has said that he is already over 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like how the Saturday storm looks right now. I feel pretty good about a 3-6 kind of deal somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Liking the trend on the 18Z data. Looks like the Saturday event should get my seasonal total past the 50" mark. I stand at 46.5" now, 26.8" from October. Hard to believe given how little they've had out toward ALB. That's pretty crazy... we are at the same snowfall on the season so you'll probably pass our snowfall down here in the town of Stowe with these next events. But we got absolutely shut out in October. Your area over towards Pete (the Berkshires in general) may have the most snowfall out of New England this winter, aside from 1,500ft+ along the northern Green Mountain spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm liking the looks of this. I'll be "watching" it from the pool. MAZ002-200900- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 416 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 .TONIGHT...SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. . .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH... BECOMING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That's pretty crazy... we are at the same snowfall on the season so you'll probably pass our snowfall down here in the town of Stowe with these next events. But we got absolutely shut out in October. Your area over towards Pete (the Berkshires in general) may have the most snowfall out of New England this winter, aside from 1,500ft+ along the northern Green Mountain spine. Yeah, it's pretty wild thanks to that epic meso band we had in the 10/29 storm. You've had more snow since October due to the usual upslope type storms. Minus October, I've had only 19.7", which is considerably below normal. Goes to show how one or two storms can skew seasonal snowfall totals. This type of thing definitely happened in SENE in the 2005 winter when they had more than many parts of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, it's pretty wild thanks to that epic meso band we had in the 10/29 storm. You've had more snow since October due to the usual upslope type storms. Minus October, I've had only 19.7", which is considerably below normal. Goes to show how one or two storms can skew seasonal snowfall totals. This type of thing definitely happened in SENE in the 2005 winter when they had more than many parts of NNE. What did you end up with in the Oct storm, Mitch? The band hung over me for several hours and I wound up with 2', but you were ground zero with that bad boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 What did you end up with in the Oct storm, Mitch? The band hung over me for several hours and I wound up with 2', but you were ground zero with that bad boy. I got 24" even, same as you. Pete got about 27" I think, while 2K in Peru and Savoy was like 30-32". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, it's pretty wild thanks to that epic meso band we had in the 10/29 storm. You've had more snow since October due to the usual upslope type storms. Minus October, I've had only 19.7", which is considerably below normal. Goes to show how one or two storms can skew seasonal snowfall totals. This type of thing definitely happened in SENE in the 2005 winter when they had more than many parts of NNE. First comparison I've seen to that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So would I, that would get us to an average winter. We could do it, especially if February and March produce. I believe Pete has said that he is already over 50". 51.75". Even though Scooter and Joe don't want the October snow to count. I'm thinking a big Feb/March couplet like 1957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 51.75". Even though Scooter and Joe don't want the October snow to count. I'm thinking a big Feb/March couplet like 1957. Sure it counts for the season, but lets not stretch October snow into arguing this winter per se is somehow decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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