bobbutts Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 My question is with 3 days of almost persistent light snows coming up, why's everyone talking about the buzz kill of early next week? So be it if everything ends up melting, nothing you can do about it. Just take the snow the next few days and pile it in the north facing corners of the house. And just enjoy the next 72 hours which will be a treasure in these types of winters. CT. Blizz torch, blah, ct blzz 50, snow etc blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 My question is with 3 days of almost persistent light snows coming up, why's everyone talking about the buzz kill of early next week? So be it if everything ends up melting, nothing you can do about it. Just take the snow the next few days and pile it in the north facing corners of the house. And just enjoy the next 72 hours which will be a treasure in these types of winters. Exactly possibly I have 5-7 of pure fluff to trail the hill with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 CT. Blizz torch, blah, ct blzz 50, snow etc blah blah blah Who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can we get a general idea of when the snow starts on Saturday Looks like it's now more of a midday thing? Rather than predawn like the Euro had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam had a general 8am-3pm event...looked like some lingering moisture until 6-7pm. Daytime event FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can we get a general idea of when the snow starts on Saturday Looks like it's now more of a midday thing? Rather than predawn like the Euro had Our favorite starts snowing at dawn when we wake up, perfect dendrites sticking to every inch of your weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Exactly possibly I have 5-7 of pure fluff to trail the hill with. Enjoy it Steve. You look to be in a great spot for both of these systems. Trends are further south and colder for Sat/Sun which will benefit you nicely man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'd be pretty surprised if the slow north trend didn't commence around 0Z. I don't see what would suppress it with no blocking... Probably still fine for most of SNE...maybe except south coast and Cape, etc. NAM looks like a decent 3-5 kind of deal on Saturday. A little fluff with good dendritic growth/cold atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Enjoy it Steve. You look to be in a great spot for both of these systems. Trends are further south and colder for Sat/Sun which will benefit you nicely man. Hopefully this begins a good 6 week stretch, always with bumps in the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hopefully this begins a good 6 week stretch, always with bumps in the road. Hope so, was thinking we were going to have a early start to brush fire season with the lack of snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 all the overnight runs were really cold. nice to see. euro is about .45-.55" out here...basically all of which would be frozen on that run. we'll see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hope so, was thinking we were going to have a early start to brush fire season with the lack of snow pack So far fingers crossed my month delayed looks not bad, figure this being Mid Dec type cold / snow. Looking forward to the next 6-8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hopefully this begins a good 6 week stretch, always with bumps in the road. If it snows every couple of days who cares if it melts in between aside of snowpack weirdos Take it and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If it snows every couple of days who cares if it melts in between aside of snowpack weirdos Take it and be happy. I like snowpack to play in, much more fun than mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 all the overnight runs were really cold. nice to see. euro is about .45-.55" out here...basically all of which would be frozen on that run. we'll see how things evolve. I do like what I've seen as well. NAM continued cold as well. Hopefully we can see some stabilization in the models(if we have not already) and and changes are just noise. Once argument to make on the southerly solutions are the downward trends in the AO/NAO on the models. Hope they're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS looks suppressed compared to the 06z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z GFS is rolling in colder than the 06z run (which seemed a touch milder than 00z i think) it has snow well down into the mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Also is fast compared to the nam. Snow starting in western areas by 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like the GFS is a bit south of 06z for now. Hopefully it quiets down LL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Who are you? someone you ignored for 854 posts because I wasn't talking about your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'd be pretty surprised if the slow north trend didn't commence around 0Z. I don't see what would suppress it with no blocking... Probably still fine for most of SNE...maybe except south coast and Cape, etc. It's possible. But the latest guidance shows a very weak mid-level shortwave. In this regard this scenario differs somewhat from previous storms. The dynamics are limited. This is primarily light isentropic lift, and the QPF is driven by the magnitude of thermal gradient. Surface development currently looks weak and suppressed to the south. The sheared out shortwave actually appears to lag in the Tn Valley into day 3, esp on the NAM. I wonder if the QPF with the initial wave could be overdone or if conversely the waves might ultimately be more consolidated with the thermal boundary further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z GFS is rolling in colder than the 06z run (which seemed a touch milder than 00z i think) it has snow well down into the mid-atlantic Well the longer it stays south on guidance, its definitely better for the southern areas over to your area. I still think it comes back north before we get to verification, but keping it south longer will certainly limit how much it could come back north. I've noticed on the more southerly riuns, the vortmax is really weak coming out of the rockies. We should hae a better idea on that energy as it comes ashore tonight at 00z...still offshore for this 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 it has the slp center going over 39N. nice snow event verbatim. would take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Pretty sparse on moisture. Maybe 4-5" jackpot in N NJ with 2-4" for sne verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Bah! Dislike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If it snows every couple of days who cares if it melts in between aside of snowpack weirdos Take it and be happy. When you live in a place that can hold snowpack fairly well..you always get upset when it metls. When you live in an area that 1) doesn't snow much and 2) doesn't hold snowpack when it does snow..you don't care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well the longer it stays south on guidance, its definitely better for the southern areas over to your area. I still think it comes back north before we get to verification, but keping it south longer will certainly limit how much it could come back north. I've noticed on the more southerly riuns, the vortmax is really weak coming out of the rockies. We should hae a better idea on that energy as it comes ashore tonight at 00z...still offshore for this 12z suite. yeah almost doesn't even qualify as one. it's all sheared / stretched as it runs out into the flow over the plains. the northern stream is pretty active which helps keep this supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's possible. But the latest guidance shows a very weak mid-level shortwave. In this regard this scenario differs somewhat from previous storms. The dynamics are limited. This is primarily light isentropic lift, and the QPF is driven by the magnitude of thermal gradient. Surface development currently looks weak and suppressed to the south. The sheared out shortwave actually appears to lag in the Tn Valley into day 3, esp on the NAM. I wonder if the QPF with the initial wave could be overdone or if conversely the waves might ultimately be more consolidated with the thermal boundary further north. would this be similiar to a situation where the models have trouble resolving mutiple waves along a front? usually it turns into one major event / wave and the second is more muted (or vice versa) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah almost doesn't even qualify as one. it's all sheared / stretched as it runs out into the flow over the plains. the northern stream is pretty active which helps keep this supressed. The weaker that s/w is coming out of the rockies...the less moisture this system will have. It could end up as a 1-3" fluff job in the end if it stays really weak...it can't tap into any southern moisture otherwise and the frontogenesis will be weaker too with a sheared system. Hopefully we see it trend stronger to juice the system up again, but not so strong that everyone is worrying about ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 When you live in a place that can hold snowpack fairly well..you always get upset when it metls. When you live in an area that 1) doesn't snow much and 2) doesn't hold snowpack when it does snow..you don't care this hurts. truly hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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