40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I won't be up for the EURO, but my guess is a bit s, but not to the degree of the other crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like this setup. I think most of us do ok. I agree at this point...this tick south might be good for keeping us out of the sleet...remember when the 1/12 event ticked south to hammer us around this time frame when we thought it was going to rain up to the Canadian border a couple days earlier....then it ticked back north in the final 48h...we still did ok in the interior, but it wasn't 10" of snow like was shown for a couple runs 3 days out. The only thing keeping it from coming north is the nuaces in the short wave itself and the PV up west of Hudson Bay...but there is no blocking to really road block it downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i understand the black bird doesn't do well in the white stuff... (reference above, of course, was to Baltimore...) not sure what to make of the suppressed trends tonight sometimes models don't have a good handle of where baroclinic zone sets up until after 1st shortwave passes through in any case, i actually think SNE sits good this far out... if it's a powdery 2-3" rather than a more wet 4-6" with potential for sleet taint, so be it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 And don't forget tomorrow nights fluff job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A nice cold 3-5/6? Keep un mind these are 6 hour qpf totals. EURO will prob look similar...maybe a touch n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here's a red flag thrown. Nogaps is quite the snowstorm Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS ensembles are quite a bit slower on the mean...they seem to be having trouble figuring out which vortmax to concentrate the sfc wave on. There looks like a lot of timing spread just seeing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here's a red flag thrown. Nogaps is quite the snowstorm Saturday afternoon. Shwartz-Synoptic-Seven Flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 All systems should be adjusted colder until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 All systems should be adjusted colder until further notice. As proven the past several systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 And don't forget tomorrow nights fluff job. In pornography, the "fluffer" is the girl that keeps the guy...he hm, interested between shoots - any chance you mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 As proven the pastseveerql systems. Why is it that when they adjusted warmer, I got screwed....and now that they adjust colder, I get screwed....I'm about to adjust violently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At least my 5-15" for January looks to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro is def a bit south of 12z...but not nearly as far south as the GFS or GGEM. Most of the region is in line for 3-6" on the Euro with north of the MA/NH border getting less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Bet it starts trending north again by 0z runs Friday.... The next system is a debacle for snow pack... 540 line to Labrador, slow rainy front moves through. So whatever happens on Saturday, enjoy it for one day and do some snow showing etc. because it get's wrecked and we are left with a similar to situation to now with 4-6 inches of pure frozen junk on the ground. Euro is def a bit south of 12z...but not nearly as far south as the GFS or GGEM. Most of the region is in line for 3-6" on the Euro with north of the MA/NH border getting less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Bet it starts trending north again by 0z runs Friday.... The next system is a debacle for snow pack... 540 line to Labrador, slow rainy front moves through. So whatever happens on Saturday, enjoy it for one day and do some snow showing etc. because it get's wrecked and we are left with a similar to situation to now with 4-6 inches of pure frozen junk on the ground. It will probably trend north in the final 36h because that is what these things do...but every once in a while one of them will crap out as a weak sheared wave to the south...but the time you get that is when there is blocking and we just don't have it right now. So my bet would be it comes back north...if past similar setups are any indiciation at any rate. The key shortwave that causes this system is now over the north Pacific whereas the few previous runs it was over the Aleutians...not sure if that will make a difference. It comes onshore the PAC NW at 00z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro ensembles look pretty similar to the OP...they might be just a shade warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS seems to suppressed. Looks like a nice snowfall for a lot on Saturday. Like Will said, these things can tock north in the final seconds, but nice to see a little insurance tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6z gfs just gave us our tick back north GFS seems to suppressed. Looks like a nice snowfall for a lot on Saturday. Like Will said, these things can tock north in the final seconds, but nice to see a little insurance tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice mtrend south as some oif us thought would happen..Just no room for it to come north. Every system the last 10 days has come south a bit as we closed in. I'd expect the icestorm on Monday to do the same..Wiz thinks everyone blasts into th 50's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6z gfs just gave us our tick back north Yeah it will have a limit north, but lets not forget how these can behave. We had an insurance tick south which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still feeling good about a nice snow on Saturday. Euro 3-6 for those of us who have seen the least this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice mtrend south as some oif us thought would happen..Just no room for it to come north. Every system the last 10 days has come south a bit as we closed in. I'd expect the icestorm on Monday to do the same..Wiz thinks everyone blasts into th 50's lol Nah, it will warm. Maybe not 50s, but cold rain at the least for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nah, it will warm. Maybe not 50s, but cold rain at the least for you. Yeah i agree we'll get ice SUnday night and that will prob go over to like a 34 rain on Monday...but Wiz thinks all of SNE rips into the 50's. These systems seem to want to trend colder lately..With no blocking you wouldn't necc think that would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Not everyone blasts into the 50's but certainly the south coast, most of RI, CT and eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Really bumming I'm going to miss the best 72 hours of the winter due to this God-foresaken trip. I'll be trying to follow the Saturday event unfold from 90*. That sucks. Then whatever Sunday-night brings. I then return Monday night to what looks like a mild few days. Regardless of north/south, we all get a taste of winter. Of course, some will benefit more than others but good stuff to some degree for all beginning this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah i agree we'll get ice SUnday night and that will prob go over to like a 34 rain on Monday...but Wiz thinks all of SNE rips into the 50's. These systems seem to want to trend colder lately..With no blocking you wouldn't necc think that would happen I actually wouldn't be shocked if you did hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I actually wouldn't be shocked if you did hit 50. According to him I'm getting an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I actually wouldn't be shocked if you did hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 southern CT gets into the lower 50's...52-54F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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