weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can't see uncle at 72 but at 60 hours it looks pretty juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thats a solid 3-6 4-8 here, too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can't see uncle at 72 but at 60 hours it looks pretty juiced. More juiced than the GFS, but it does look south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can't see uncle at 72 but at 60 hours it looks pretty juiced. UKIE looks pretty cold too...maybe not to the same extent but chilly none-the-less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If you ask me it's typical GFS nonsense. Thats an incredible shift south, I want to believe that so badly but just cant yet. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 More juiced than the GFS, but it does look south of 12z. Pike south ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Pike south ftw? Lol...dangerous call on a SWFE at 60-72 hours. We'll see how the ensembles and the Euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A nice cold 3-5/6? Keep un mind these are 6 hour qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hopefully the euro hold with .5+ for SNE and doesn't trend south. Gfs went from me mixing to being on the edge of the storm and getting maybe 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 These type of events always trend north. I'm happy to see the 00z GFS at this point. Not really all that impressed with this as an event yet, but it is wintry at least. Good looking isentropic lift in advance of the low, but I wouldn't mind seeing a sharper mid level s/w. There is some low level frontogenesis, that's displaced well north of the low. If the system pulled together more, there could be definitely be band of 6"+, but otherwise, widespread 3-5" looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Same timeframe as other image.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 These type of events always trend north. I'm happy to see the 00z GFS at this point. Not really all that impressed with this as an event yet, but it is wintry at least. Good looking isentropic lift in advance of the low, but I wouldn't mind seeing a sharper mid level s/w. There is some low level frontogenesis, that's displaced well north of the low. If the system pulled together more, there could be definitely be band of 6"+, but otherwise, widespread 3-5" looks good. The further south solutions are uglier with the precip shield because of the lack of frontogenesis...the more the system gets pressed up into the cold dome, the more qpf it will probably produce with a sharper temp gradient. Some of those amped GFS ensemble member over the past few runs are much juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Pike south ftw? Recall, in SWFE lore, the tales of the axis of heaviest snow trending from NJ to northern MA within 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Lol...dangerous call on a SWFE at 60-72 hours. We'll see how the ensembles and the Euro look. Yea, GFS is awful....considering the entire pantheon of guidance at the moment, you'd have to call for a Kevin-pike special.....but as you just alluded to, I'm not yet concerned. If that were to happen, though...I'd absolutely lose it considering that every other meaningful system has trended to my N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro has been very steady. Hopefully the euro hold with .5+ for SNE and doesn't trend south. Gfs went from me mixing to being on the edge of the storm and getting maybe 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Harv said he felt it would be more supressed, thought more snow south of Boston particularly around Plymouth near the water....less up near Brookline and towards Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Harv said he felt it would be more supressed, thought more snow south of Boston particularly around Plymouth near the water....less up near Brookline and towards Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gfs, ukie, and ggem all south at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Cmc further south and really doesn't give anyone much. Interesting trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, at least Noyes has me getting 1' tmw night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gfs, ukie, and ggem all south at 0z If you lived @ day 4, you had about 80" in 2007-'08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Funny...when we need a cold high it's a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Funny...when we need a cold high it's a little too much. I'd take that over more cold rain, though....just frustrating to get bent over in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 He wasn't thinking much anywhere. Thought it would be surpressed, didn't quite express it but if this was Dickie would be a NBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If you lived @ day 4, you had about 80" in 2007-'08. I remember an event that winter that trended nicely for us that totally screwed NYC after they were going wild on a 6 hour lead. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Funny...when we need a cold high it's a little too much. It'll trend north in the last 24-36 hours. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like this setup. I think most of us do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Interesting trends tonight, but its really childs play until 115am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The only model that even matters is the Euro. I just wish we didn't have to stay up until 1 AM for it...forces you to torment yourself looking at these sub par models. Once in a very great while they find a nut. If you lived @ day 4, you had about 80" in 2007-'08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I remember an event that winter that trended nicely for us that totally screwed NYC after they were going wild on a 6 hour lead. We'll see. I remember Will and I getting flamed for trying to warn them......didn't want to hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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