ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like srefs bumped north of 15z at 21z How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 cp as in Coastal Plain? Are you in Springfield, MA? I wouldn't consider that the coastal plain. Valley yes, plains, no. I wouldn't worry either.... I consider it cp bc we are on the valley floor and sometimes the results are about the same. there is often a big difference in snow totals even from where i am to where you are in Stafford Springs. I just happen to live in one of the worst areas for snow accums in sne. Not for all types of events but for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like srefs bumped north of 15z at 21z I think they are a little faster, so that may play a part of it...might skew the perception. Guidance seemed to speed up a bit today. But, I would not be shocked at a tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I consider it cp bc we are on the valley floor and sometimes the results are about the same. there is often a big difference in snow totals even from where i am to where you are in Stafford Springs. I just happen to live in one of the worst areas for snow accums in sne. Not for all types of events but for the majority. You aren't cp bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think they are a little faster, so that may play a part of it...might skew the perception. Guidance seemed to speed up a bit today. But, I would not be shocked at a tick north. yeah that's my worry right now. i don't have a whole lot of expectation for MBY anyway...but a few ticks south would make a big difference here. ultimately i'd lean north some though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We're starting to get some fat pitches and the bullpen is spent from last winter. I like what I'm seeing now. We are going to score some runs here in the 7 th, maybe get shutdown for an out or two in the 8 th but we saved our bench pinch hitters for last. Bernie Carbo and Dusty Rhodes on the bench! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think they are a little faster, so that may play a part of it...might skew the perception. Guidance seemed to speed up a bit today. But, I would not be shocked at a tick north. It could also have more qpf to the north as it looked juiced from 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 How much? A tic or 2 but more robust with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I consider it cp bc we are on the valley floor and sometimes the results are about the same. there is often a big difference in snow totals even from where i am to where you are in Stafford Springs. I just happen to live in one of the worst areas for snow accums in sne. Not for all types of events but for the majority. I actually work in Springfield and I've seen that. The borough is surrounded by 1000' hills and the northern part of town is a little higher so the elevation helps. Believe it or not, I don't think that you're in the worst place in SNE...I leave that distinction to Norwich & New London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Someone should make a shirt for Scooter and Kev. "Caution...sleet may be closer then it appears" I actually now really want a t-shirt that says that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I actually work in Springfield and I've seen that. The borough is surrounded by 1000' hills and the northern part of town is a little higher so the elevation helps. Believe it or not, I don't think that you're in the worst place in SNE...I leave that distinction to Norwich & New London. Meh Norwich is hilly and does OK, maybe Pawcatuck, Stonington are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like srefs bumped north of 15z at 21z Yeah...srefs favor southern and central NH...jackpot snowNH to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You should move to the feeding hills side of agawam i notice even a big difference from one side of town to the other I consider it cp bc we are on the valley floor and sometimes the results are about the same. there is often a big difference in snow totals even from where i am to where you are in Stafford Springs. I just happen to live in one of the worst areas for snow accums in sne. Not for all types of events but for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Meh Norwich is hilly and does OK, maybe Pawcatuck, Stonington are the worst. Anywhere east of New Haven on the immediate coast does the worst. Trust me, been there for 16 years now. Why do you think I went to LSC for MET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I actually now really want a t-shirt that says that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You should move to the feeding hills side of agawam i notice even a big difference from one side of town to the other I used to notice a big difference between Agawam and Southwick. In the Dec 92 blizzard Southwick got whacked and Springfield and Agawam had squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Anywhere east of New Haven on the immediate coast does the worst. Trust me, been there for 16 years now. Why do you think I went to LSC for MET? I lived in SWRI for 44 years I know oh how I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00z nam is slower, significantly. Maybe 8 hours slower then the gfs it looks like. By 18z Saturday, its just starting to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is a lot colder...which isn't a surprise either since it has been by far the warmest guidance in the mid-levels. We are still in a pretty useless range for this model...especially this season. Its been dreadful this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I lived in SWRI for 44 years I know, how how I know. You guys are right def not the worst in Spfd. East of New Haven over to Narragansett RI is prob the worst with New London/Stonington ground zero right over to Charlestown and Westerly. When I was a kid in Bristol Ct i always used to be amazed at how little snow se ct and sw ri would get, even in the storms when the mets or ocwas would say the most snow would be on the coast or se ct and the only coastal areas that ever jackpotted was sw ct. and taunton east to the cape. Dec 2009 storm was the only big storm I can remember that really jackpotted those zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah if your in agawam close to the river your toast if you go to my side of town by southwick there usually is a big difference I used to notice a big difference between Agawam and Southwick. In the Dec 92 blizzard Southwick got whacked and Springfield and Agawam had squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is a lot colder...which isn't a surprise either since it has been by far the warmest guidance in the mid-levels. We are still in a pretty useless range for this model...especially this season. Its been dreadful this year. I am supposed to meet a friend in MHT for dinner Saturday night, but I am getting worried about the driving since the roads are pretty windy around here and it's looking as if a big snowfall event is on the horizon. I may instead drive home to Dobbs Friday at 3pm Friday right after school if this is going to be preventing me from doing anything out in NH this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Timing differences are pretty bad. 21z is the height of the storm on the nam while on the gfs its winding down by then. Looks colder, probably mixes up to somewhere between mass pike and route 2. Jackpot snowNH. Advisory event N of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam is junk, Its out of it range, It has right now different solutions each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM must have a bizarre looking sounding...its gets the 0C 850 line up near Rt 2 or MA/NH border at the peak but the 2840m 1000-700 thickness line is in northern CT. Its almost like there is the narrowest warm layer at 850 and no other level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is a lot colder...which isn't a surprise either since it has been by far the warmest guidance in the mid-levels. We are still in a pretty useless range for this model...especially this season. Its been dreadful this year. definitely agree there. i almost treat it like just another sref member at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Timing differences are pretty bad. 21z is the height of the storm on the nam while on the gfs its winding down by then. Looks colder, probably mixes up to somewhere between mass pike and route 2. Jackpot snowNH. Advisory event N of the pike. The NAM is junk. Run with and follow the EURO and the other globals. NAM will be good to pick up on minor trends 36 hours in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah the NAM does have a mega warm layer at 850. Strange to see with track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah the NAM does have a mega warm layer at 850. Strange to see with track like that. Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice? No, probably sleet with thicknesses that cold...sfc temps in the teens to mid 20s with a narrow warm layer at 850....but in all honesty, all of that is a huge red flag to begin with...especially with the Euro and other guidance not showing that really narrow warm layer and the arctic high in good location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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