moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:03 PM, weatherMA said: Thanks for the qpf numbers. And yeah even the nam had low 20s for ORH. Maybe Pete can pick up 5-6" because of 20:1 ratios. I remember on eastern people used to mention ratios all the time...its hardly come up lately. Either has the mention of snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:30 PM, ericnh said: nam looks to be coming in further north It's slightly warmer and a smidge north. The surface is still cold all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:32 PM, jm1220 said: Or definitely, absolutely not. Looked like it to me on the instant weathermap site, if I'm wrong, my bad...but it looked warm NYC south on those maps. Snowfall map on that sight confirmed...but I could be wrong. Regardless, a much better run for SNE...and for NYC too if it doesn't mix because it has more qpf...widespread .5-.6 with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:33 PM, Snow88 said: It's slightly warmer and a smidge north. The surface is still cold all the way to the coast. negatice ghost rider, sv nam snow maps are awful for the city, longisland and ne coastal nj, down here its 3-6 but ten miles to my south is zero, this is an interior sne jackpot plain and simple, whether it right who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I approve of the 18z NAM. We all knew this was coming back N in the final 24-36 hours. These pesky SW flow events always do. With the north bump, better dynamics and wa-la...more QPF. 5-8" riding the Mass Pike (and either side w/i 20 miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:32 PM, Logan11 said: Several more runs to keep trending north ..absolutely no reason why it wouldn't this winter. Trends screwed me a few times and benefitted NH and ME, but this time I think we have enough breathing room. Rick, are you saying the Euro is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:33 PM, Snow88 said: It's slightly warmer and a smidge north. The surface is still cold all the way to the coast. 850 line makes it into CT, I doubt it's that good for NYC area. Hopefully it budges a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:38 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I approve of the 18z NAM. We all knew this was coming back N in the final 24-36 hours. These pesky SW flow events always do. With the north bump, better dynamics and wa-la...more QPF. 5-8" riding the Mass Pike (and either side w/i 20 miles) Oh and GC, more like 8-12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:38 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I approve of the 18z NAM. We all knew this was coming back N in the final 24-36 hours. These pesky SW flow events always do. With the north bump, better dynamics and wa-la...more QPF. 5-8" riding the Mass Pike (and either side w/i 20 miles) Surface temps in the upper teens for N ORH hills! Anyway, I'm off to work so you guys have a break from me posting my horrible model interpretations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like how it keeps the -SN going in eastern MA several hours after the main batch exits offshore. If the GFS comes north at 18z too, GAME ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:39 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Oh and GC, more like 8-12"+ Looks like maybe 12-14F for Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 THE NAM is oh so dirty..Nudity frontal and backal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:40 PM, weatherMA said: Surface temps in the upper teens for N ORH hills! Anyway, I'm off to work so you guys have a break from me posting my horrible model interpretations Fluff factor If we get good lift and snow growth, 20:1 ratios are very possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:38 PM, litchfieldlibations said: Rick, are you saying the Euro is wrong? You do good man on the BTV WRF for the weekend event.... that model is way south and very weak with QPF. Pretty much a non event north of the Pike, lol. But its a 4km WRF model run out past 48 hours in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:41 PM, CT Blizz said: THE NAM is oh so dirty..Nudity frontal and backal My god is beautiful...probably 10" of snow for 2K pete with .5-.6 and ratios Too bad its the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 500mb vort max stronger and more north at 18Z, turns this into a solid low-end warning criteria event for much of SNE 18Z: 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm not surprised it's trending north now. The surprise to me was that the much vaunted Euro also got cold feet and went south the last two runs. I expect it will bump back north at 0Z. On 1/19/2012 at 8:38 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I approve of the 18z NAM. We all knew this was coming back N in the final 24-36 hours. These pesky SW flow events always do. With the north bump, better dynamics and wa-la...more QPF. 5-8" riding the Mass Pike (and either side w/i 20 miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I commented on that before I saw you type this... Surprising, but maybe it is wrong, not huge error, but it could be 75 miles too far south, etc. On 1/19/2012 at 8:38 PM, litchfieldlibations said: Rick, are you saying the Euro is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:42 PM, weatherMA said: My god is beautiful...probably 10" of snow for 2K pete with .5-.6 and ratios Too bad its the 18z nam. lol yep... ahhh NAM QPF output... gotta love it. The weenie dream model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am surprised this thing is not more juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:42 PM, weatherMA said: My god is beautiful...probably 10" of snow for 2K pete with .5-.6 and ratios Too bad its the 18z nam. To bad its the Nam period....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:51 PM, powderfreak said: lol yep... ahhh NAM QPF output... gotta love it. The weenie dream model. Qpf is overdone on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro ensembles may be ever so slightly north of the op, but almost dead nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro ensembles may be ever so slightly north of the op, but almost dead nuts. thx - do you have precip probs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:03 PM, weatherMA said: Thanks for the qpf numbers. And yeah even the nam had low 20s for ORH. Maybe Pete can pick up 5-6" because of 20:1 ratios. I remember on eastern people used to mention ratios all the time...its hardly come up lately. We've also hardly had snow lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:55 PM, codfishsnowman said: I am surprised this thing is not more juiced. Why? There is hardly a s/w to speak of so we're doing this solely on WAA with almost no PVA. The high to the north is not exactly PDII-like either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 9:00 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: thx - do you have precip probs? Between 30-40% of getting 0.25" or greater in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 9:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Between 30-40% of getting 0.25" or greater in 6 hrs. thanks, as always. they look good at day 10 - wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Having the NAM move north isn't exactly thrilling, but imo, it doesn't mean it could be wrong. I wouldn't be shocked if things ticked just a bit north after 12z's guidance from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 8:36 PM, weatherMA said: Looked like it to me on the instant weathermap site, if I'm wrong, my bad...but it looked warm NYC south on those maps. Snowfall map on that sight confirmed...but I could be wrong. Regardless, a much better run for SNE...and for NYC too if it doesn't mix because it has more qpf...widespread .5-.6 with good ratios. It's horrible for Long Island at least, SE winds for much of the storm and a fast change to upper 30s and rain. It's much better for you I'm sure. NYC is right on the dividing line and likely a lot of sleet and some freezing rain/drizzle after snow. It's an 18z NAM run which is pretty low on the totem pole, but all of us know the dreaded north trend at the last minute these SW flow events often take. We'll see what happens. If the ground is white on Saturday morning outside my window, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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