CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:07 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: this hurts. truly hurts. So selfish. Either way, his snow is gone Monday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said: So selfish. Either way, his snow is gone Monday Night. yeah...i think it would take a pretty rock solid thick pack to survive monday pm-tuesday am. i'm just excited to see some synoptic snows flying around. it has "snowed" several times out here from OES but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With every run this becomes more of a non-event. Enjoy winter 2011-12. As I have said numerous times, bring on spring, bring on 50's and sun, frisbee and soccer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:07 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: this hurts. truly hurts. LOL...why does it hurt? You live in a good snow spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:12 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: yeah...i think it would take a pretty rock solid thick pack to survive monday pm-tuesday am. i'm just excited to see some synoptic snows flying around. it has "snowed" several times out here from OES but meh. Well it's good to see you south coast guys get snow. I suppose you still need to be aware of a tick north, but every run south is more insurance for you. Even up here, could be more fluff and a little oes, so not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:14 PM, CoastalWx said: Well it's good to see you south coast guys get snow. I suppose you still need to be aware of a tick north, but every run south is more insurance for you. Even up here, could be more fluff and a little oes, so not bad. i won't be sold on saturday until it's actually snowing. LOL. the good thing is even a few ticks north would still result in several hours of steady snow. even the milder runs had that out here so i'd be OK with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Seems like folks should be more worried about suppression than mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:06 PM, ma blizzard said: would this be similiar to a situation where the models have trouble resolving mutiple waves along a front? usually it turns into one major event / wave and the second is more muted (or vice versa) I think as we enter the short range the likelihood of large shifts in which surface wave the models are keying on significantly diminishes. And I would be more concerned with that kind of model mahem if we were dealing with two or more strong shortwaves, instead of a relatively minor upper level trof and a weak surface wave. I do think the model consensus might continue to weaken and suppress the initial wave slightly as as bit of southern stream energy shears off of the polar jet and stalls in the SE US. But I generally doubt the ability to predict model trends. This looks like a relatively powdery light snow event for almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: The weaker that s/w is coming out of the rockies...the less moisture this system will have. It could end up as a 1-3" fluff job in the end if it stays really weak...it can't tap into any southern moisture otherwise and the frontogenesis will be weaker too with a sheared system. Hopefully we see it trend stronger to juice the system up again, but not so strong that everyone is worrying about ptype. That's exactly what I was thinking. There's lots of anxiety from the mid-Atlantic and NYC crews that today's trends will reamp the wave, delivering mix to rain for them and moderate snows for SNE. Right now I think 2-4 is pretty dialed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With every shift south, sure it secures ptype as snow for some of you further south, but the dynamics get weaker and weaker until it's practically nothing. Any further shift south will deliver a "jackpot" of 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:17 PM, CT Blizz said: Seems like folks should be more worried about suppression than mixing. No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:17 PM, CT Blizz said: Seems like folks should be more worried about suppression than mixing. Well we know what the last minute trends have been. We'll see what the euro does and it could tick north on guidance tomorrow. But, it has such a weak s/w..that the nrn stream is pushing it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:26 PM, sbos_wx said: No way This, from the guy who recently called for 4-8 up to 5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Even a good jump north on guidance would keep areas south mostly snow. I don't see a big jump north, though. Maybe none at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said: Well we know what the last minute trends have been. We'll see what the euro does and it could tick north on guidance tomorrow. But, it has such a weak s/w..that the nrn stream is pushing it south. I'm not worried for us..but the folks up north might need to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:35 PM, CT Blizz said: I'm not worried for us..but the folks up north might need to Yeah, I'm done with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:30 PM, Zeus said: This, from the guy who recently called for 4-8 up to 5-10. This is a SWFE no? I think every respectable meteorologist on this board has cited past events with having a majority north trend in the days before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said: So selfish. Either way, his snow is gone Monday Night. Looks deadly. I'll still need the boots to scout out MP3 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:43 PM, sbos_wx said: This is a SWFE no? I think every respectable meteorologist on this board has cited past events with having a majority north trend in the days before the storm. Yes, but the s/w is so weak...it doesn't have the forcing to allow it further north. It still could tick north just a bit, but I think this trend more to the south isn't a fluke either. It actually surprised me a bit, but when you look at how weak the s/w is...I suppose it isn't a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Dern it! So much for that cold appeal on next week’s system… The models have blithely dismantled that blocking polar high …now offering a fast retreating return flow scenario… Damming I was discussing earlier completely gone on this GFS run. Just a boring Lakes cutter with 50F DP rocking on in… Funny how one way or the other the GFS finds a way to not change the pattern - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:35 PM, CT Blizz said: I'm not worried for us..but the folks up north might need to I won't go jump off a cliff if we don't see snow out of it, I don't get all worked up like some do, If you guys end up with this one i am happy for all of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 actually...this whole run is a pisser out in the extended... It tries with D7 wave similar to Saturdays, but then it brings spring in... Got to figure that's out to lunch with the environmental signals calling for an AO sag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:45 PM, CoastalWx said: Yes, but the s/w is so weak...it doesn't have the forcing to allow it further north. It still could tick north just a bit, but I think this trend more to the south isn't a fluke either. It actually surprised me a bit, but when you look at how weak the s/w is...I suppose it isn't a shocker. It is weak and it will get to a point where it will be down to flurries if it continues for a lot of folks, Its a catch 22, A stronger solution will be fiurther north and some will have precip issues, Weaker further south and some still have precip issues like lack of any...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like a South Shore special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Suddenly, the prospect of being in the tropics has become less depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:57 PM, moneypitmike said: Suddenly, the prospect of being in the tropics has become less depressing. Yeah, I'm not sad at all that I'm "missing" this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:56 PM, Dryslot said: It is weak and it will get to a point where it will be down to flurries if it continues for a lot of folks, Its a catch 22, A stronger solution will be fiurther north and some will have precip issues, Weaker further south and some still have precip issues like lack of any...........lol But it's got such a wide spread shield of snow, so the snow shield may get pretty far north. Maybe it's really light on the nrn shield, but should be rather extensive for such a weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The zonal northern stream flow screws us a number of times. If the northern s/w was more amplified and slower, it would bring the Saturday storm northward, and then block the next wave from cutting north. BRING ON SPRING! I can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:59 PM, wxwatcher91 said: Yeah, I'm not sad at all that I'm "missing" this one You're out of town, too? I'm really joking though......I would still much rather be home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 5:02 PM, wxwatcher91 said: The zonal northern stream flow screws us a number of times. If the northern s/w was more amplified and slower, it would bring the Saturday storm northward, and then block the next wave from cutting north. BRING ON SPRING! I can't wait I see directly through your transparent lies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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