prinsburg_wx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Strong disturbance drops se in the northwest flow thu night/fri bringing accumulating snows. The GFS is furthest south affecting mainly SD, northern/central IA & the CMC a little further north than the gfs affecting s MN/n IA...the ECM further north yet & more robust affecting c/s MN into S WI. This system if it verifys would be one of the better systems to pass through my general area since last Nov. The 12z ECM qpf data for a few locations listed below. MKT FRI 12Z 20-JAN -10.9 -7.9 1017 42 97 0.01 545 532 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.6 -9.6 1016 83 100 0.41 543 531 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -11.6 -12.3 1019 84 68 0.11 543 529 MSP FRI 12Z 20-JAN -12.1 -11.3 1019 38 100 0.01 542 528 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -11.3 -10.6 1018 78 98 0.30 541 528 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.4 -12.3 1020 85 70 0.11 542 527 LSE FRI 18Z 20-JAN -11.2 -9.2 1019 77 100 0.25 544 530 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -11.0 -10.6 1018 84 96 0.36 543 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -13.5 -9.7 1019 86 43 0.03 545 531 12z GFS & GGEM at hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 We are also waching this one in our region. The Euro would be a warning type event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 fwiw: the 84hr 0z nam is north like usuall but it's bringing the heavier band into c MN...3-5" event according to the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I am watching. No lie though...impossible to make a call on placement here. That low amplitude wave is still part of a larger Pacific system. A long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS is in the middle of the north NAM & south GGEM but basically these models have s MN/n IA for maybe warning type snows...12z GGEM did nudge back north some from 0z so we'll see what the dreaded ECM has...wouldn't be surprised if the 12z euro flipped back to a northerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z euro continues to run with the nam in placing the qpf band further north starting late thursday night...euro qpf should be good for 3-5" event for alot of locations in s MN. MKT 0.31 MSP 0.23 RST 0.37 RWF 0.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It is looking like an interesting event with quite a bit of mesoscale banding. The wave itself is pretty weak, but the low level baroclinic zone is rather spectacular. GFS, oddly enough, has been leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It is looking like an interesting event with quite a bit of mesoscale banding. The wave itself is pretty weak, but the low level baroclinic zone is rather spectacular. GFS, oddly enough, has been leading the way. Baro do you favor one solution over another at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Baro do you favor one solution over another at this point? Probably the GFS keeping in mind the innate variability in this setup. One thing is certain...it has been the most consistent, and the other globals including the ECMWF have nudged closer to the wave amplitude suggested by the GFS. These arctic fronts are tricky for models to handle since the baroclinic zone is incredibly strong (significant potential energy gradients), and arctic fronts tend to moderate less quickly than models suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 MPX calling for 1-3" for my area late tonight/tomorrow withe heavier amounts just to my south...sunday system starting to look interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 MPX calling for 1-3" for my area late tonight/tomorrow withe heavier amounts just to my south...sunday system starting to look interesting as well. The pains of a low amplitude, fast moving wave. System, already crashing onshore...will be pushing into SD/MN in 6-8 hours. Looks like a great event for southern MN into northern IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z GFS coming in further south with the heavier qpf which is in IA now...congrats to the ggem/rgem as these models pegged this 2 days ago. MN screw zone for snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z GFS coming in further south with the heavier qpf which is in IA now...congrats to the ggem/rgem as these models pegged this 2 days ago. MN screw zone for snow continues. Yeah it isn't looking good. Everything points to a track farther S than the current NAM suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We are picking up some flurries and freezing rain across northern NE along the mid level warm front. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah it isn't looking good. Everything points to a track farther S than the current NAM suggests. I guess the positive with this winter is i don't think it could get any worse...awesome winter last year so it's time to pay the piper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I guess the positive with this winter is i don't think it could get any worse...awesome winter last year so it's time to pay the piper. It is only mid January. A lot of time left. As for this storm...you may still see some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Have had just over an 1" so far here. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 654 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0654 AM SNOW WSW ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W 01/20/2012 M3.0 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 624 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0622 AM SNOW 2 N BRANDON 43.62N 96.58W 01/20/2012 M3.0 INCH MINNEHAHA SD PUBLIC 0605 AM SNOW SIOUX CENTER 43.08N 96.17W 01/20/2012 M4.0 INCH SIOUX IA BROADCAST MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 2.5 inches down with light snow falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nothing too exciting but winter pics are rare up here so far this season...1.5" so far but it looks to be over with soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Prinsburg when you get a chance could you give me qpf amounts from ggem? I'm thinking it's showing a nice drawn out 4-6 inches for here but i'm just guessing based off ewall stuff I just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Prinsburg when you get a chance could you give me qpf amounts from ggem? I'm thinking it's showing a nice drawn out 4-6 inches for here but i'm just guessing based off ewall stuff I just saw. 48 01/22 12Z 24 22 -3.2 998 89 157 12 0.09 537 538 54 01/22 18Z 28 26 -3.9 999 90 165 8 0.10 538 538 60 01/23 00Z 26 25 -4.6 1002 96 86 3 0.15 538 536 66 01/23 06Z 25 24 -6.6 1006 94 329 8 0.13 538 534 72 01/23 12Z 19 15 -8.1 1010 86 340 16 0.06 538 530 78 01/23 18Z 17 13 -7.6 1012 82 338 14 0.01 538 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 48 01/22 12Z 24 22 -3.2 998 89 157 12 0.09 537 538 54 01/22 18Z 28 26 -3.9 999 90 165 8 0.10 538 538 60 01/23 00Z 26 25 -4.6 1002 96 86 3 0.15 538 536 66 01/23 06Z 25 24 -6.6 1006 94 329 8 0.13 538 534 72 01/23 12Z 19 15 -8.1 1010 86 340 16 0.06 538 530 78 01/23 18Z 17 13 -7.6 1012 82 338 14 0.01 538 528 wow better than expected. I'm liking the 12z trends, gfs would be a warning event for areas a bit south of here with the ggem bring the warning type snows up this way. Seems to be lining up with the 00z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 euro qpf for gfk...start a thread SUN 12Z 22-JAN -6.1 -0.3 1002 78 96 0.02 542 541 SUN 18Z 22-JAN -4.3 -3.1 1003 83 100 0.06 542 539 MON 00Z 23-JAN -5.1 -7.6 1005 94 99 0.24 539 536 MON 06Z 23-JAN -5.2 -10.1 1006 93 98 0.18 537 533 MON 12Z 23-JAN -8.0 -11.7 1009 83 91 0.05 537 529 MON 18Z 23-JAN -10.0 -11.0 1013 79 53 0.01 537 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 5.5 inches for me in the storm now with flurries/snow showers ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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