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Upstate NY/North Country: Heart of Winter 2012


Logan11

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High Wind Warning in affect with Gust approaching Hurricane criteria tonight into tomorrow. Also very strong Tornado outbreak happening right now. F4-F5 Tornadoes are possible throughout the day in Ohio Valley, Kentucky, and Tennessee. 52 and sunny outside currently I can smell spring absolutely beautiful out!

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AND BRING

DOWN SOME TREES AND LIMBS. PROPERTY DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY

INCLUDING MINOR ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE.

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW

SOLID WARNING CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CORRIDOR FROM LAKE ERIE NORTHEAST ACROSS

THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST END OF

LAKE ONTARIO. WITH SUCH FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER

EXPECTED AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS OF 70-75 MPH ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

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Euro cranks the low to 972mb early tomorrow morning over Lake Huron. 850mb wind behind the front looks to be in the 70-75 kt range. The only thing that is keeping this from standing up with more historic events I think is that we don't get the absolutely unstable layer in the boundary layer that we see in fall events. If this were in the fall the sustained winds on lake erie would be over 50 kt imo. However, I think the gust potential is just as high as some past historic events.

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Euro cranks the low to 972mb early tomorrow morning over Lake Huron. 850mb wind behind the front looks to be in the 70-75 kt range. The only thing that is keeping this from standing up with more historic events I think is that we don't get the absolutely unstable layer in the boundary layer that we see in fall events. If this were in the fall the sustained winds on lake erie would be over 50 kt imo. However, I think the gust potential is just as high as some past historic events.

Currently listening to Police radio from regions hit by Tornadoes. Calling for chainsaws to get people out of cars. Devastating damage in this area, hope everyone is okay down there. Looks like perfect environment for very strong tornadoes to form today into tonight.

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Currently listening to Police radio from regions hit by Tornadoes. Calling for chainsaws to get people out of cars. Devastating damage in this area, hope everyone is okay down there. Looks like perfect environment for very strong tornadoes to form today into tonight.

that it does. I hadn't really looked too much at it until today which is unlike me lol.

I didn't mention it here..but I got my job at the Bermuda Weather Service back. I'm flying out on March 15th.

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Currently listening to Police radio from regions hit by Tornadoes. Calling for chainsaws to get people out of cars. Devastating damage in this area, hope everyone is okay down there. Looks like perfect environment for very strong tornadoes to form today into tonight.

It's very bad down there...listening now. Multiple tornadoes going over the same areas...that must be a nightmare. Poor people.

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Been listening to the scanner in a area of southern Indiana the past few hours.....tracking a series of tornados as they progress to the east....the devistation is unbeleivable...whole communties just flatten...they are heading for Ohio in awhile...

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I'm gonna guesstimate the highest gust at KBUF will be 77 mph just a gut feeling. I'll say 86mph at the BUF harbor right on the lake.

that would be nuts lol. But ehh...I disagree. If it were fall with a 45-50 degree lake...i'd say BUF had a decent chance to gust over hurricane force...but for this storm..i'd put the odds at 10, maybe 15%.

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Nick , congrats on getting the job back in Bermuda. :) One place I have never been - though my mom and dad honeymooned there way back in 1962.

that it does. I hadn't really looked too much at it until today which is unlike me lol.

I didn't mention it here..but I got my job at the Bermuda Weather Service back. I'm flying out on March 15th.

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that would be nuts lol. But ehh...I disagree. If it were fall with a 45-50 degree lake...i'd say BUF had a decent chance to gust over hurricane force...but for this storm..i'd put the odds at 10, maybe 15%.

Your too good. BUF had a whopping 58 mph gust when we were promised that we would easily top last weeks 60 mph gust at KBUF...Dud in my book
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We haven't had much wind ...some gusts yeah, but pedestrian stuff for this ridge. The occlusion came through uneventfully with 1/3" of sleet coating the ground. OVC and 39 now, but quite calm.

Ohh you might want to check the 192 hour Euro....first glance looks like it buries a lot of Upstate NY. :) ..at least CNY eastward.

Your too good. BUF had a whopping 58 mph gust when we were promised that we would easily top last weeks 60 mph gust at KBUF...Dud in my book

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Your too good. BUF had a whopping 58 mph gust when we were promised that we would easily top last weeks 60 mph gust at KBUF...Dud in my book

Peak gust at BUF was actually 63 mph, but I'm kind of with you....I was expecting higher. Having said that, I wouldn't exactly call this storm a "dud"...

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BARKER 43.33N 78.55W

03/03/2012 NIAGARA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

RTE 18 ROAD CLOSED BY DOWNED TREES...NUMEROUS

ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

COUNTYWIDE

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W

03/03/2012 ERIE NY CITY OFFICIAL

8 TREES DOWN... 1 LIGHT POLE DOWN... AND 1 CHIMNEY DOWN

ACROSS THE CITY SINCE ONSET OF HIGH WINDS

This is a particularly long duration event with what will essentially be ~18 hours of frequent gusts to 50 mph with occasional gusts topping 60 mph. 18 hours of 50 mph winds can do more damage than 6 hours of 60+ mph winds...so don't count this one out yet. I have a feeling the damage will be quite widespread before things start settling down later today.

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The reason that wasn't worse was:

low verified weaker than progged (979mb vs. 974-972mb)

low-level jet verified over southern Ontario into NW Lake Ontario..not over Lake Erie

Wind direction had a more southerly component than what would be ideal for BUF...hence IAG gusting higher at 69mph. I wouldn't be surprised if someone on the Niagara Peninsula in Canada got a gust to 75 mph.

Still, a respectable high wind event. But not quite what could have been.

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Your too good. BUF had a whopping 58 mph gust when we were promised that we would easily top last weeks 60 mph gust at KBUF...Dud in my book

Dud? Really? :axe:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=LSR&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

NEW YORK

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

DUNKIRK 63 200 PM 3/03 C-MAN STATION

BARCELONA 59 1200 PM 3/03 C-MAN STATION

1 N DUNKIRK MUNI ARP 54 1251 PM 3/03 ASOS

...ERIE COUNTY...

CLARENCE 68 1034 AM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

KENMORE 67 602 AM 3/03 SPOTTER

NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 63 728 AM 3/03 ASOS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

FORT DRUM 59 212 PM 3/03 ASOS

1 NE WATERTOWN ARPT 54 244 PM 3/03 ASOS

...LEZ041...

BUFFALO 62 1154 AM 3/03 COAST GUARD

...MONROE COUNTY...

ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 66 927 AM 3/03 ASOS

IRONDEQUOIT 59 1220 PM 3/03 COAST GUARD

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

NIAGARA FALLS INTL A 69 647 AM 3/03 ASOS

YOUNGSTOWN 60 1100 AM 3/03 COAST GUARD

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Dud? Really? :axe:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=LSR&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

NEW YORK

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

DUNKIRK 63 200 PM 3/03 C-MAN STATION

BARCELONA 59 1200 PM 3/03 C-MAN STATION

1 N DUNKIRK MUNI ARP 54 1251 PM 3/03 ASOS

...ERIE COUNTY...

CLARENCE 68 1034 AM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

KENMORE 67 602 AM 3/03 SPOTTER

NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 63 728 AM 3/03 ASOS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

FORT DRUM 59 212 PM 3/03 ASOS

1 NE WATERTOWN ARPT 54 244 PM 3/03 ASOS

...LEZ041...

BUFFALO 62 1154 AM 3/03 COAST GUARD

...MONROE COUNTY...

ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 66 927 AM 3/03 ASOS

IRONDEQUOIT 59 1220 PM 3/03 COAST GUARD

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

NIAGARA FALLS INTL A 69 647 AM 3/03 ASOS

YOUNGSTOWN 60 1100 AM 3/03 COAST GUARD

by what was frecasted its a bit of a dud imo.
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It was very scenic and wintry on our drive out to go trap shooting in Java this morning. Looked to be about 3-5" with moderate to heavy snow falling in Concord on Genesee Rd...1600 ft ASL or so. This location is definitely in the running for the snowiest location in WNY with around 200" on average.

Perrysburg has to win that. I believe they might be above average this year in terms of snowfall 8+ LES events so far for them this year in addition to whatever synoptic they got. They had several storms over 20 inches I believe. I think they average 250 inches a year or around that up there. I do not think I will even hit 50 inches here on border of Hamburg/North Boston, absolutely incredible! Looking forward to a nice hot summer though, hope to go to the beach a lot, hopefully all this working out will pay off! :lmao:

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About 5.5-6.5" here on the SU Hill today....what a shallow, narrow, and intense little band!!! (Probably only about 2 miles wide).

20120305095941.jpg

Nice! I was in shock going to the Dome Saturday that there was absolutely nothing in Syracuse. Barely

even any snowbanks or piles anywhere.

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