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Upstate NY/North Country: Heart of Winter 2012


Logan11

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Of course, there's always the fantasy NAM with their magical precip machine dropping near double digits in snowfall at KALB and about a foot here...I'd feel better if the Euro is less sickly looking. Someone from the NWS in the paper this morning said 2-4" for KALB, which is probably a decent first guess at this point.

Yeah...no reason to trust the NAM after its ridiculous bust last week. Let's remember it had a solid 4-6" snowfall forecasted for Friday morning only about 24 hours out. The good news is that at first glace, the GFS, its looking a bit more like the NAM. Like you said, hopefully the Euro steps it up this afternoon.

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HPC

THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON THE TRACK OF THE

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE UKMET TIMING

LAGGING THEIR CONSENSUS. ONCE THE WAVE REACHES THE NORTHEAST DAY

3...THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ECMWF AND

UKMET...NOT GIVING THE COLD AIR ENOUGH CREDIT TO HOLD ITS GROUND

ACROSS THE REGION. WILL RECOMMEND THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE

ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH.

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Is that based on the most recent Euro? 12z Euro and NAM don't seem all that different to me.

It dosent say including the euro like it usually does but it was updated after the ecm came out

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

135 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012

VALID FEB 27/1200 UTC THRU MAR 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...

12Z/27 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES

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Still a good :weenie: run for our area...even if it does taint, a good wall of snow beforehand. But yeah, we can't really afford to let it get too much warmer. Its still far from the NAM's wheelhouse of about 3 hours after the event started.

18z nam is a little warmer , also a little wetter imby..Cutting it real close

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KBGM

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AT THIS TIME 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE

EVENT SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ZONES...AND MORE LIKE 4 TO 8 INCHES

CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VALLEY/TUG HILL. FOR ICE...GENERALLY TENTH TO

QUARTER INCH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. THESE AMOUNTS...SNOW AND

ICE...ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON VERY

SENSITIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE. LOOKS LIKE A

WIDESPREAD ADVISORY EVENT...BUT WATCH/WARNING NOT OUT OF THE

QUESTION FOR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW

MODELS TREND

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KALB

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO

OUR WEST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

HOWEVER...STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS

SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD

TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT

PROVIDED THE NICE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS

NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AND THE FLOW AROUND

THIS HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP SOME DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE

REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR

AREA. AT THIS POINT...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS PRECIP SHOULD

BE IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE FIGHTING LATE

FEBRUARY SUN /VERY LATE FEBRUARY CONSIDERING IN MOST YEARS THIS

LEAP YEAR DATE IS ALREADY MARCH/...SOME SNOWFALL SHOULD STILL

ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE

BY THE LATE AFTN. IT/S NOT CLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST

WARM ADVECTION PRECIP WILL MAKE IT. THIS WAS AN ISSUE WITH THE

STORM LAST FRIDAY...AS PRECIP SLID EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN

AREAS...LEAVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION ON

NORTHWARD. IN THIS GO AROUND...THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER MODEL

SUPPORT /ESP THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/ THAT AT LEAST SOME

PRECIP MAKES IT TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW INCHES OF

SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. MAX TEMPS LOOKS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN

THE DACKS TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

BY EVENING...THE WARM AIR WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE IN ALOFT...ESP

AROUND THE 800 HPA LAYER. THE 12 UTC GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS

WARM LAYER MOVING IN ALOFT...WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/NAM KEEP PRECIP AROUND

FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA

DEVELOPING OFF THE JERSEY SHORE ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF

PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. AT THE POINT...WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE

LATEST ECMWF/NAM. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE SCENARIOS...SOME

WARMER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR MIXING WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN

PLAIN RAIN FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. THE COLD

AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN BEST ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN

ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA/SOUTHERN VT. THE CAPITAL REGION WILL

BE ON THE BORDERLINE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TEMPS LOOKS TO

REMAIN STEADY IN MOST AREAS...OR EVEN RISE A DEGREE OR TWO...ESP

ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

BY THURSDAY...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CRASHING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES

FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE

A PERIOD OF PRECIP FOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MODELS

DISAGREE ON JUST HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS AND WHAT FORM

IT WILL BE IN. THE GGEM/ECMWF SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LOW AND SLIDE IT

OUR NORTH...KEEPING ADDITIONAL PRECIP MINIMAL. MEANWHILE...THE 12

UTC GFS...WHICH HAD THE LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT...RAMPS

IN BACK UP WITH THE UPPER LOW BOWLING ACROSS OUR AREA.

HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COULD BE AN ISSUE IN VALLEY

AREAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE

WITH RAIN OR SNOW BASED ON THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE...BUT ADDITIONAL

SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN

AREAS

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I know this doesnt really have much to do with our weather here in upstate ny but i figured since we get lake effect snow here that id share. Check out this radar imagry from Reno,NV right now (time sensitive) . You can see a decent but small band of lake effect snow on a NE wind over Lake Tahoe. Pretty neat IMO..

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=RGX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1327801050&lat=39.35470963&lon=-120.19326782&label=Tahoe+Donner%2C+CA&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

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Wow...18z NAM just never disappoints. Another absolute weenie of a run. Has 3 waves of precip...and although the heaviest of the first misses just south...it really nails us with the second and to a lesser extent the third. Looks cold enough for snow for all three...maybe a bit of sleet at the onset of the 2nd. Looks like around 1.2-1.3" total for ALB...but a max of 1.8" just west. 18z NAM is always good fun. Good news is even if you scale back the QPF by 2/3...that's still a good event for everyone considering how the rest of the winter has gone.

We'll see...my expectations are still pretty low for the valley...2-4" with wave #1...maybe another 1-2" as the cold air filters back in on the back side.

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updated forecast for herkimer

Wednesday: Snow, mainly after noon. High near 34. Light wind becoming east between 12 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all sleet after 2am. Low around 28. East wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday: Sleet before 10am, then rain and sleet between 10am and 1pm, then snow likely after 1pm. High near 36. East wind between 10 and 13 mph becoming light. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible

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