wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yea the nam looks pretty good, about 1/2"(liquid ) of front end snow followed by some light rain/ice, then the 2nd batch comes through with another. 25-.50 of frozen precip..Fwiw ofcourse lol The Nam also keeps surface below freezing throughout .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Of course, there's always the fantasy NAM with their magical precip machine dropping near double digits in snowfall at KALB and about a foot here...I'd feel better if the Euro is less sickly looking. Someone from the NWS in the paper this morning said 2-4" for KALB, which is probably a decent first guess at this point. Yeah...no reason to trust the NAM after its ridiculous bust last week. Let's remember it had a solid 4-6" snowfall forecasted for Friday morning only about 24 hours out. The good news is that at first glace, the GFS, its looking a bit more like the NAM. Like you said, hopefully the Euro steps it up this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 cmc has 10+ hrs of snowfall before changing to light rain(imby) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 what a beautiful day here in jersey, almost to 60 at 1230 in the afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah, its showing that "compromise" with the GFS we were hoping for. Plenty of time for it to change, but Euro looks much better for us than it did last night. According to "sources" the ecm gives albany little over 1" of qpf , all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 HPC THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE UKMET TIMING LAGGING THEIR CONSENSUS. ONCE THE WAVE REACHES THE NORTHEAST DAY 3...THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET...NOT GIVING THE COLD AIR ENOUGH CREDIT TO HOLD ITS GROUND ACROSS THE REGION. WILL RECOMMEND THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 HPC Is that based on the most recent Euro? 12z Euro and NAM don't seem all that different to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Is that based on the most recent Euro? 12z Euro and NAM don't seem all that different to me. It dosent say including the euro like it usually does but it was updated after the ecm came out NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 135 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 VALID FEB 27/1200 UTC THRU MAR 02/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z/27 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Another solution from one of my favs, the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 18z nam is a little warmer , also a little wetter imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Still a good run for our area...even if it does taint, a good wall of snow beforehand. But yeah, we can't really afford to let it get too much warmer. Its still far from the NAM's wheelhouse of about 3 hours after the event started. 18z nam is a little warmer , also a little wetter imby..Cutting it real close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 KBGM GENERALLY SPEAKING...AT THIS TIME 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENT SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ZONES...AND MORE LIKE 4 TO 8 INCHES CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VALLEY/TUG HILL. FOR ICE...GENERALLY TENTH TO QUARTER INCH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. THESE AMOUNTS...SNOW AND ICE...ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON VERY SENSITIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE. LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD ADVISORY EVENT...BUT WATCH/WARNING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 KALB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TOOUR WEST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PROVIDED THE NICE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AND THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP SOME DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE FIGHTING LATE FEBRUARY SUN /VERY LATE FEBRUARY CONSIDERING IN MOST YEARS THIS LEAP YEAR DATE IS ALREADY MARCH/...SOME SNOWFALL SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTN. IT/S NOT CLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST WARM ADVECTION PRECIP WILL MAKE IT. THIS WAS AN ISSUE WITH THE STORM LAST FRIDAY...AS PRECIP SLID EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...LEAVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION ON NORTHWARD. IN THIS GO AROUND...THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER MODEL SUPPORT /ESP THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/ THAT AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MAKES IT TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. MAX TEMPS LOOKS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE DACKS TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. BY EVENING...THE WARM AIR WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE IN ALOFT...ESPAROUND THE 800 HPA LAYER. THE 12 UTC GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS WARM LAYER MOVING IN ALOFT...WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/NAM KEEP PRECIP AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OFF THE JERSEY SHORE ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. AT THE POINT...WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE LATEST ECMWF/NAM. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE SCENARIOS...SOME WARMER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR MIXING WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN BEST ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA/SOUTHERN VT. THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE ON THE BORDERLINE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TEMPS LOOKS TO REMAIN STEADY IN MOST AREAS...OR EVEN RISE A DEGREE OR TWO...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. BY THURSDAY...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CRASHING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVESFROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE A PERIOD OF PRECIP FOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS AND WHAT FORM IT WILL BE IN. THE GGEM/ECMWF SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LOW AND SLIDE IT OUR NORTH...KEEPING ADDITIONAL PRECIP MINIMAL. MEANWHILE...THE 12 UTC GFS...WHICH HAD THE LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT...RAMPS IN BACK UP WITH THE UPPER LOW BOWLING ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COULD BE AN ISSUE IN VALLEY AREAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW BASED ON THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AREAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'd love that NAM run to verify but my pet unicorn isn't feeling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nam still has a nice front end thump followed by some ice and back to light snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 0Z NAM weenie map likes ENY and the Mohawk Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Gfs is still a little warm but has trended colder..Surface also has trended colder, snow to ice for herkimer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I know this doesnt really have much to do with our weather here in upstate ny but i figured since we get lake effect snow here that id share. Check out this radar imagry from Reno,NV right now (time sensitive) . You can see a decent but small band of lake effect snow on a NE wind over Lake Tahoe. Pretty neat IMO.. http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=RGX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1327801050&lat=39.35470963&lon=-120.19326782&label=Tahoe+Donner%2C+CA&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 0z GFS and NAM were somewhat encouraging for CNY, and it sounds like the ARW, NMM, and Euro were better as well. I'm not even going to talk about the CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This could be in jeopardy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 A few areas may get knocked down a bit with the afternoon updates. At least with a Winter Storm Watch, they can easily convert to an advisory or no flags at all if that happens to be the case. This could be in jeopardy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The gfs and euro are both basically a 2-4" in cny , the rgem only shows 6 hrs of snow before ending..Reminds me of last storm when all models started to back away within 24 hrs of the event.. Im in nj anywayz enjoying the 50s and 60s, im ready for spring lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Wow...18z NAM just never disappoints. Another absolute weenie of a run. Has 3 waves of precip...and although the heaviest of the first misses just south...it really nails us with the second and to a lesser extent the third. Looks cold enough for snow for all three...maybe a bit of sleet at the onset of the 2nd. Looks like around 1.2-1.3" total for ALB...but a max of 1.8" just west. 18z NAM is always good fun. Good news is even if you scale back the QPF by 2/3...that's still a good event for everyone considering how the rest of the winter has gone. We'll see...my expectations are still pretty low for the valley...2-4" with wave #1...maybe another 1-2" as the cold air filters back in on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol...12-18" for the entire Capital Region. One can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 updated forecast for herkimer Wednesday: Snow, mainly after noon. High near 34. Light wind becoming east between 12 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all sleet after 2am. Low around 28. East wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thursday: Sleet before 10am, then rain and sleet between 10am and 1pm, then snow likely after 1pm. High near 36. East wind between 10 and 13 mph becoming light. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 KBGM downgraded onieda county on SW to a WWA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Totally ready for spring, and looks like will be getting it early next week! Supposed to hit 55 tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Totally ready for spring, and looks like will be getting it early next week! Supposed to hit 55 tomorrow as well. Really? I see 40 with chance of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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