OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 the disagreement at the 48 to 60 hour range is astouding. Euro looks like phase with the southern stream...but does it messily and gets a weak low over SNE...just basically some snow showers over WNY. GFS and NAM are really amped up northern stream systems which give BUF to ROC rain (probably starts and ends as snow) but aren't too far off a snowstorm. A blend might actually work out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Nam is colder once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 generall guess is that lower elevations in WNY get 1-3" before it turns to rain while Watertown pulls 3-6" with perhaps warning criteria on the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 U guys know Montreal climo in an event like this? How do they do in events like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 18z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 generall guess is that lower elevations in WNY get 1-3" before it turns to rain while Watertown pulls 3-6" with perhaps warning criteria on the Tug. Currently staying near Jay/Ausable Forks on vacation through the weekend. Sounds like from your general guess that we could be looking at an advisory event in the lower elevations, possibly warning level in the mountains. This area could definitely use some snow. No snow cover at all pretty much below 3,000 feet in the northeast Dacks. Skied Whiteface yesterday and it was all artificial snow until well above 2,500 feet. Higher terrain is finally getting some snow today. Left the Adirondak Loj this evening with moderate snow and about 3 new inches. Just rain so far in the lower elevations near the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 This would be nice !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Thanks for updates on models Mohawk. Btw it has been snowing here moderately last few hours. Doesn't look to let up in quite awhile. Maybe end up with 3-4 surprise inches out of this. Some of the largest flakes I have ever seen. Some flakes have 5-10 flakes attached to each other. Its absolutely beautiful out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 AS OF 855 PM...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN A HALF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 11 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...VISIBILITIES WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO BELOW A MILE ALONG WITH ROADS BECOMING QUICKLY SNOW COVERED AND TREACHEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 U guys know Montreal climo in an event like this? How do they do in events like this? they would do well, but looks to me the storm is becomng less impressive and slower to re-orgainze as we get closer. 2-6 inches through ottawa and montreal is a good place to start. dependign on how it plays out, there may be some more snow or maybe even lower end accums with some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 A little over 2" here so far and still coming down like hell. Nice surprise event. Im hoping to pull 2-4 maybe 3-6" out of fridays event, prob wont happen though. Oh well, at least all the grass is solidly covered as are roadways. The snow out there is so heavy there are several tree branches hanging feet lower than they normally do. Snow better stop soon or some of them may start cracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Wow just looked at the 00z NAM and boy what i would give to lock that model run in. Prob 4-8" for BUF verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Nice surprise snowfall! Still snowing lightly. LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ERIE COUNTY... AKRON 4.0 1138 PM 2/22 COCORAHS BUFFALO 3.3 1137 PM 2/22 NWS OFFICE ...MONROE COUNTY... ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 2.3 1100 PM 2/22 ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 3 1/2" for the final tally here. Extremly thick snow. Absolute concrete. Prob 6:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 WOW another unexpected event coming for us this weekend. NWS has the entire WNY area under a winter weather advisory and a Lake Effect Snow Watch for storm totals of 7-13 inches from both events. This is ontop of the 4 inch event last night! I still don't believe a foot event came out of no where like this. I will believe it when I see it with this one. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 12Z NAM12 AND REGIONAL GEM HAVE COME TO A CLOSER CONSENSUS AS TO THE PLACEMENT/TIMING/INTENSITY TO A PRECIP BAND PRECEDING THE SURFACE LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW STRONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT…WITHIN A LIKEWISE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THESE SAME LAYERS. DEEP MOISTURE AND A DEEP OMEGA PLUME TO ABOVE 25000FT AND A CO-LOCATED OMEGA MAXIMUM WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL MAXIMIZE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR…AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. COLDER AIR WRAPPING BEHIND THE LOW WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -8C TO -10C RANGE UNDER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S. WHILE THE SURFACE-850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS…THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT WITH A BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE SETUP…WILL GO WITH A BROADBRUSH LES WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF ONTARIO/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WHERE CLIMATOLOGY GENERALLY RULES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM 270 TO 290/300 DEGREES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It was really going earlier, nothing now. Just about two inches of perfect snowball snow. Temps creeping up, 33.6F already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I will be in nj for the next 2 weeks, so u know upstate will see some snow nws forecast Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Funny you say that - NW Warren County got 3-4" out of this last storm, but KALB is already mentioning strong potential for snow on Wednesday, and hinting next weekend might not be as warm (rain) event as it appears at this point. Looks like winter might finally arrive... in March;) And I say that from both a frozen precipitation and below freezing high temp perspective.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Outlook for wednesday's storm http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/local3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Outlook for wednesday's storm http://www.atmos.alb...pin/local3.html Great writeup, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Talk about a difference of opinion, local mets have 44 and rain here while the nws has 32 and all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 If nothing else, at this point I'm more concerned about the best parts getting pushed south of us than I am rain. Talk about a difference of opinion, local mets have 44 and rain here while the nws has 32 and all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Funny you say that - NW Warren County got 3-4" out of this last storm, but KALB is already mentioning strong potential for snow on Wednesday, and hinting next weekend might not be as warm (rain) event as it appears at this point. Looks like winter might finally arrive... in March;) And I say that from both a frozen precipitation and below freezing high temp perspective.... I was riding up in Indian Lake / Moose river plains and the snow was great. Mosse River Plains has a good 2 feet on the ground. Don't think they got much rain with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 the set up looks right for someone to get a signfiicant ice storm out of this...I think the southern Tier of NY through the Finger Lakes and up to Lake Ontario would be the most likely location at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 the set up looks right for someone to get a signfiicant ice storm out of this...I think the southern Tier of NY through the Finger Lakes and up to Lake Ontario would be the most likely location at this time. So basically anyone in WNY would be fair game at this point? Or are you thinking more CNY since you mention the finger lakes area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 So basically anyone in WNY would be fair game at this point? Or are you thinking more CNY since you mention the finger lakes area? the danger is more towards the warm side the farther west west you go I think. This will certainly be a mixed bag of precip type deal..more snow north...more rain and freezing run south. Hammering out real details this far out is tough...but I think there will be signficant areas of advisory snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 KALB WED-WED NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER PA INTO NY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN TO BEGIN. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE WET BULB EFFECT WILL ALLOW SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY WED EVENING. BAGGINESS IN THE SFC ISOBARS INDICATES SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE ECMWF PROFILES ARE BELOW 0C WED AND WED NIGHT AT H925...AND H850 OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ! THE NAM IS COLD FOR PREDOMINANTLY A SNOW PTYPE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT SOME SLEET. THE 18Z GEFS PLUME FOR ALBANY WAS MOSTLY SNOW /MAJORITY OF PLUME MEMBERS/ WITH A FEW FRZA/IP. THE NEWEST PLUME HAS A BIT MORE FZRAS MEMBERS BUT STILL MORE RAIN AND SNOW. THE LATEST SREF GRAPHICS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PROBS OF FREEZING RAIN...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. THE HPC WINTER GUIDANCE INDICATES A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE SRN 3 COUNTIES WED NIGHT. WE STUCK WITH THE SNOW AND SLEET SCENARIO FOR THE FCST AREA NOW WITH A LITTLE BIT OF LIQUID RAIN. THE BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET FOR THE REGION. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW EVENT. THE SLEET COULD CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS. AGAIN...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VARIABLE WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES. THIS CYCLE OF THE ECMWF...NAM...SREFS AND CAN GGEM FAVOR A WINTRY PTYPE OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE WARMER ONE THIS CYCLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE THERMAL PROFILES AMONG THE ASSORTED GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW RUNS WHICH WILL IMPACT SIGNIFICANTLY THE PTYPE AND AMOUNTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My pessimism remains at an all-time high. Despite the chance for some wintry precip this week...the models are portraying this thing as a disorganized mess. There's several pieces of energy and none of them seem to want to take over and dominate...which may benefit temps as there's less of a WAA threat to worry about, but what we're left with is just some light overrunning crap. The way I'm envisioning it is 3-4 waves of light precip that even if fall as frozen, light intensity may mean we see a lot more sleet which will struggle to amount to much for us valley dwellers. As has been the theme all winter, BL temps won't help out with that. Hopefully I'm wrong, but models just not looking terribly exciting to me this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My pessimism remains at an all-time high. Despite the chance for some wintry precip this week...the models are portraying this thing as a disorganized mess. There's several pieces of energy and none of them seem to want to take over and dominate...which may benefit temps as there's less of a WAA threat to worry about, but what we're left with is just some light overrunning crap. The way I'm envisioning it is 3-4 waves of light precip that even if fall as frozen, light intensity may mean we see a lot more sleet which will struggle to amount to much for us valley dwellers. As has been the theme all winter, BL temps won't help out with that. Hopefully I'm wrong, but models just not looking terribly exciting to me this morning. If this were a normal Feb., (with at least SOME substantial snowcover to our sout and west) our BL temps would have a sporting chance (in this set up) to keep stuff frozen a bit further south.....however, with little to no snowcover, temps near 50 today and no substantial cold airmass, I think this event is going to end up a disappointing one for most of us W/C NY'ers...at least... Now our friends in S. Ontario/NNY may still end up with a nice little even, with that solid HP sliding in tandem with our s/w. ENY is going to be a crap shoot in the valleys. If the HP slids too quickly eastward, or is modled too strongly at this point, frozen precip will be limited there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Of course, there's always the fantasy NAM with their magical precip machine dropping near double digits in snowfall at KALB and about a foot here...I'd feel better if the Euro is less sickly looking. Someone from the NWS in the paper this morning said 2-4" for KALB, which is probably a decent first guess at this point. My pessimism remains at an all-time high. Despite the chance for some wintry precip this week...the models are portraying this thing as a disorganized mess. There's several pieces of energy and none of them seem to want to take over and dominate...which may benefit temps as there's less of a WAA threat to worry about, but what we're left with is just some light overrunning crap. The way I'm envisioning it is 3-4 waves of light precip that even if fall as frozen, light intensity may mean we see a lot more sleet which will struggle to amount to much for us valley dwellers. As has been the theme all winter, BL temps won't help out with that. Hopefully I'm wrong, but models just not looking terribly exciting to me this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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