lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 did anyone see the 0z GFS? It explodes a storm moving up the east coast on Sunday! the 06z run will show a ridge with a strong south wind with scattered thunderstorms and areas approaching 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 did anyone see the 0z GFS? It explodes a storm moving up the east coast on Sunday! Interesting, and within 120 hours no less....Next model run will probably have the low heading towards Bermuda, but something to keep tabs on I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the 06z run will show a ridge with a strong south wind with scattered thunderstorms and areas approaching 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the 06z run will show a ridge with a strong south wind with scattered thunderstorms and areas approaching 60F. Ha ha - you took the other extreme from what I was thinking. Tough to be too optimistic the way things have trended all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Interesting, and within 120 hours no less....Next model run will probably have the low heading towards Bermuda, but something to keep tabs on I guess. You're close to being right. The 6Z run has the storm moving off the Carolina coast and out to sea. Let's see if the 12Z run brings it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Something changed with the GFS model yesterday. It's not a coincidence that it's showing some major cold and -NAO now. Maybe it was corrected with the 06z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm telling you guys...there's been plenty of potential at days 5-7 on the models this year, but nothing has come to fruition. No need to invest much in the Sunday potential unless models are doing something with it on Friday. Time to think spring If any appreciable snow falls between now and then, consider it a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z run is back to the same solution as the 00z run. 18z run will be back to the same solution as the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 mmmmm love me some big ol storms. Lets milk this storm for all its worth I'm stealin second base, don't throw me out Euro! This is about as good as it is going to look for Central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A lot of the 18z GEFS individual members looked very nice for CNY. At the same time the CMC is out over the Sargasso Sea and the Euro is on top of Georgia. This storm looks better in theory than most "chances" this winter, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the 0Z GFS is back to a more southern, weaker solution to this weekend's storm. There's less phasing of the northern and southern stream shortwaves so the trough doesn't sharpen up enough to bring the storm into central New York. I guess that was to be expected this winter. We can always hope that this run is just a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, not very exciting but its weather... -sn/pl mix earlier has transitioned to a mostly -sn. No accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Snowing pretty good imby, thick coating so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Another rainy day here in Ithaca to add to this dull winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 42 and rain. How exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Grand total for this event was a nice slushy coating on my yard, and other cold surfaces...yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Grand total for this event was a nice slushy coating on my yard, and other cold surfaces...yep. I had a dusting on flowerbeds and dirt piles...and a thin layer of slush on car tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nothing of any interest to track on the horizon, so I just checked some climo stats for this winter so far compared to last year. Last year through this date, we had 63 days at BUF where the daily high temperature was at or below 32 degrees. This year, the number is a miserable 14 days at or below 32 degrees.....Truly shaping up to be a year without a winter - just an extended version of late fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 1" of snow yesterday evening, squall line coming this way. I better enjoy winter before it is gone later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like I'm not missing much being down here in Ocala, FL. LOL and to think I worried about being away during a prime week for snowstorms. But I am gonna hit this little Out to Sea Nor'easter tomorrow on the drive north. I'm rooting for Richmond because I expect to stop around there for the night Sunday night. GFS looks like some good potential later week, but I know where that potential usually ends up this winter. 1" of snow yesterday evening, squall line coming this way. I better enjoy winter before it is gone later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nearly a whiteout right now. Big flakes, less than 1/4 mile visibility. 35F. Just a wave passing through but exciting (a little) for this winter. (Edit: Make that less than 500 feet.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nearly a whiteout right now. Big flakes, less than 1/4 mile visibility. 35F. Just a wave passing through but exciting (a little) for this winter. (Edit: Make that less than 500 feet.) Yea, that was nice. I made sure I was outside for it. No big deal most years, but it was something to enjoy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 looks like euro may hammer parts of the north country this weekend i am headed back to ottawa on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 looks like euro may hammer parts of the north country this weekend i am headed back to ottawa on friday Looks like a good spot....headed to Montreal here. Looks like rain there on the Euro, but it will probably change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 looks like euro may hammer parts of the north country this weekend i am headed back to ottawa on friday Nice, welcome back! We've been able to maintain our snowpack since Dec. 24, but things look ugly out there....A nice snowfall will sure change that. What's in store for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The 18z GFS took a jump towards the ECMWF for Friday, and several regional AFD's have started mentioning a potential threat late this week. Let's see if Upstate NY can salvage something from this shibacle of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 kalbl (wed-thur) THERE ARECONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THIS ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP WILL EVOLVE AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS THE DACKS WITH THE 12Z NAM SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM IS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH SO WE WILL NUDGE THE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. AS FOR PTYPE...THIS WILL BE INTERESTING. THE COMBINATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE PRECIP...SUGGESTS WITHIN THIS ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP THAT MOST OF PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...THERE COULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AS LATEST QPF VALUES APPROACH ONE HALF OF AN INCH AND APPLYING A 10:1 RATIO. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE WITHIN THE HWO AND CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 still a marginal event for fri on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The euro has come in east and colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 for rochester, i hope this colder sollution pans out. we get our best snowfalls w/ lows that move w to e across the northern pa tier. but the 15 z ensembles dont show this. the 0z man did though. ;-). as did the 18 z gfs. but the 0z gfs backed off and went north again and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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