lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Looks like about 2" here. Hard to tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Picked up about .3in of snow here on campus at Cornell, but it has since melted completely. Seasonal total is a pathetic 13.0in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Looks like about close to 4" but i dont feel like going out to measure. Snow still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Blinding snow here and howling winds...errrr....wait....the windows in the house fogged up. False alarm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Blinding snow here and howling winds...errrr....wait....the windows in the house fogged up. False alarm! Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Over 4 inches here as well, has not stopped snowing since last night. Still snowing right now and look to be under lake effect snow advisory until tomorrow night. Hopefully we will get another 3-4 inches by tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 For L. Ontario, the meso models are pinging the Rochester area (or just east...an unusual occurance) as being near the max totals, with a single band becoming established early on w/connections to Geo. Bay: I would normally be skeptical, however, the best lifting/convergence looks to slide over Geo Bay and establish a solid band nice and early (ahead of the arctic front), before any frictional or long axis convergence sets up, thus I see areas near and east of ROC and areas SW of SYR to be the "winners" of a half a foot or so over the next 24-36 hours.. Off, Erie, a healthy upslope event for areas well south of BUF look good, with again a solid 6-12" more by tomorrow evening....with the accompanying few lollies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Decent accumulation of snow today in WNY, at least by this winter's standards. About 4 inches IMBY. LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... PERRYSBURG 6.0 515 PM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER ...ERIE COUNTY... CHEEKTOWAGA 3.5 603 PM 2/11 NWS OFFICE KENMORE 3.2 500 PM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER 6 NW ALDEN 3.2 400 PM 2/11 NWS EMPLOYEE 2 NNE TONAWANDA 3.0 1200 PM 2/11 COCORAHS ...NIAGARA COUNTY... NORTH TONAWANDA 3.1 515 PM 2/11 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It looks like the next chance of measurable precip (imby) will be around the thur/fri time frame..The ecm, gfs, dgex all agree on a primary going to the west with 2ndry development somewhere off the east coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 A bit of a surprise when I checked the latest local forecast: Tonight: Scattered snow showers, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -4. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday: Snow showers likely, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -6. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 14 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind between 9 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Is it possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 For L. Ontario, the meso models are pinging the Rochester area (or just east...an unusual occurance) as being near the max totals, with a single band becoming established early on w/connections to Geo. Bay: I would normally be skeptical, however, the best lifting/convergence looks to slide over Geo Bay and establish a solid band nice and early (ahead of the arctic front), before any frictional or long axis convergence sets up, thus I see areas near and east of ROC and areas SW of SYR to be the "winners" of a half a foot or so over the next 24-36 hours.. Off, Erie, a healthy upslope event for areas well south of BUF look good, with again a solid 6-12" more by tomorrow evening....with the accompanying few lollies. Yep! I've been watching the meso models also. Looks to be a decent to strong event for ROC. Unusual. But as we all know by now. there is almost NO forecasting for LES events on the south shore of Ontario. For example, here in West Irondequoit we had almost 5 inches of snow today on the N wind set up. I've been watching the kingston/ toronto LES radar light up in the last hour. I hope we get a bunch. I drove down to my folks house to get my xc skiis today and they had only had 2.5 inches of snow (they live in pittsford about 10 miles se of me). I hope the front kinda stalls over the south shore to enhance it a bit. All bets off. but i'm hopeful for another 5 or so. Thanks KING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 The northwest flow should upslope it into the western Catskills. I think it would be mainly south of me. I did get around a half inch of fluff over the course of this evening. Nice collapse in the temperature over the last three hours..now down to 8F. A bit of a surprise when I checked the latest local forecast: Tonight: Scattered snow showers, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -4. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday: Snow showers likely, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -6. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 14 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind between 9 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Is it possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It snowed pretty much all day here in Ithaca(tiny flakes though), and the wind was nasty in the late afternoon/early evening. Got about 2 inches with drifts of over 4 in a few places and many spots with nearly bare grass. Tomorrow looks like it could be our best event of the year, which is incredibly depressing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Snowing moderate to heavy now in Oswego. I think the very moist BL and large lake-850 delta t is overcoming the low cap height, which can be inferred since the TYX radar is clearly overshooting the heaviest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 waking up to this in northern ROC , still coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 waking up to this in northern ROC , still coming down Congrats man! Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 looks like a nice band off Cayuga, those in Ithaca go a mile or 2 east on 366 closer to varna and I bet they got a good 4+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Waiting for that nice band dropping down the shore of lake ontario to get in here. Hoping it doesnt fall apart when it loses connection with the lake. Someone from ROC reported 2"/hr rates in that band. If it can get here id be extremly happy. Should be here in an hour if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
User Name Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Getting 2 - 3" /hr or more east of Rochester with a1'+ on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hey everyone! I've been poking my head in here every now and then, but it's been ages since I've posted anything. I'm glad to see the lakes are finally delivering the goods, especially in the ROC area which seems to have been the most snow-starved location in the lake belt region of Upstate NY these last few years. I can't help but think of Flurries right now (anyone who has been posting in this thread for 2+ years will know what I'm talking about) lol. Just to throw some meteorological insight in here...I think the rest of today will feature a general multi-banded LES scenario with the heaviest activity becoming focused south of the Thruway as h85 winds veer to a more NW/NNW direction. A razor thin but very intense single band could remain in tact near the ITH-BGM corridor with a well-established connection up to Georgian Bay - and this is reflected on the WSETA run out of NWSFO BTV though I think its placement may be a bit off: We could see a single band become re-established southeast of Lake Ontario this evening and tonight as winds back around to the WNW and the fetch increases while the inversion height remains high and delta-T's remain sufficient to generate decent lake-induced CAPE...so places from east of ROC through the SYR area might be able to squeeze out another 2-4"/3-6" by early tomorrow morning though the band will be transient in nature. Then it's back to the relatively mundane wx pattern we've been in for much of this winter, at least for the time being. Enjoy the snow everyone! Justin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Latest Snowfall Reports: ..ALLEGANY COUNTY... ALFRED 3.5 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER WHITESVILLE 2.0 730 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER WELLSVILLE 2.0 600 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... SALAMANCA 7.0 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER WEST VALLEY 6.0 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS LITTLE VALLEY 5.0 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER OLEAN 2.0 725 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 4 SSE FREWSBURG 4.3 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS JAMESTOWN 4.3 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...ERIE COUNTY... 2 NE BOSTON 6.0 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS COLDEN 5.2 730 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER 2 SSW BLASDELL 5.0 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 2 SE GLENWOOD 4.8 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS BUFFALO 4.0 100 PM 2/12 NWS OFFICE CLARENCE CENTER 4.0 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS WALES 3.8 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 3.8 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS WEST SENECA 3.5 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS EAST AURORA 3.4 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS TONAWANDA 3.3 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS KENMORE 3.0 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS ...GENESEE COUNTY... 2 NE STAFFORD 3.7 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS ...LEWIS COUNTY... LOWVILLE 0.7 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... 4 WSW DANSVILLE 3.5 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS AVON 3.1 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER PORTAGEVILLE 2.5 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...MONROE COUNTY... ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 15.1 100 PM 2/12 ASOS GREECE 14.0 1200 PM 2/12 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 NNW ROCHESTER 9.1 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 5 WNW ROCHESTER 8.5 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 4 SSE PITTSFORD 6.8 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS ...NIAGARA COUNTY... 1 NE LOCKPORT 5.5 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 1 NE PENDLETON 5.3 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 4.5 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 6 E NIAGARA FALLS 3.0 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...ONTARIO COUNTY... CANANDAIGUA 4.5 800 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER GENEVA 4.2 800 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...OSWEGO COUNTY... MINETTO 3.9 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 2 SSE PALERMO 0.6 600 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER ...WAYNE COUNTY... SODUS 12.0 1000 AM 2/12 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SW WALWORTH 9.6 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 2 NW PALMYRA 8.5 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS 1 E NEWARK 6.6 700 AM 2/12 COCORAHS ...WYOMING COUNTY... WARSAW 5.5 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 N SILVER SPRINGS 4.0 700 AM 2/12 CO-OP OBSERVER Nice event for Rochester area, especially the airport. Over 15 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hey everyone! I've been poking my head in here every now and then, but it's been ages since I've posted anything. I'm glad to see the lakes are finally delivering the goods, especially in the ROC area which seems to have been the most snow-starved location in the lake belt region of Upstate NY these last few years. I can't help but think of Flurries right now (anyone who has been posting in this thread for 2+ years will know what I'm talking about) lol. Just to throw some meteorological insight in here...I think the rest of today will feature a general multi-banded LES scenario with the heaviest activity becoming focused south of the Thruway as h85 winds veer to a more NW/NNW direction. A razor thin but very intense single band could remain in tact near the ITH-BGM corridor with a well-established connection up to Georgian Bay - and this is reflected on the WSETA run out of NWSFO BTV though I think its placement may be a bit off: We could see a single band become re-established southeast of Lake Ontario this evening and tonight as winds back around to the WNW and the fetch increases while the inversion height remains high and delta-T's remain sufficient to generate decent lake-induced CAPE...so places from east of ROC through the SYR area might be able to squeeze out another 2-4"/3-6" by early tomorrow morning though the band will be transient in nature. Then it's back to the relatively mundane wx pattern we've been in for much of this winter, at least for the time being. Enjoy the snow everyone! Justin Oh geez Flurries.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW AND DEVELOPING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN SQUALLS KALB 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS EXTREMES FROM SKC TO OVC SKIES ACROSSTHE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY YET SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RATHER HIGH AND EXPECTATIONS ARE WHAT IS REACHING THE GROUND IS FLURRIES. UPSTREAM...ANALYSIS DOES SHOW UPSTREAM LAKE BANDS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND ALIGNED. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP. FORECAST WIND TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TOWARD 6K FEET. PER LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH...INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HIGH WITH SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NAM12/RUC13/HRRR ALL POINT TOWARD INCREASING CONVERGENT SIGNATURES WITHIN THE 1000-850MB LAYER TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TIME-FRAME BETWEEN 03Z TONIGHT TO AROUND 15Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EVOLVES ALOFT AS THAT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST. THIS IS WHEN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND INVERSION LAYERS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO BELOW 5K FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WE WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT BAND COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR UP TO 4 HOURS WHERE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED THESE BANDS OF SNOW MAY IMPACT THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARD THEMORNING RUSH HOUR WHERE THE WIND TRAJECTORIES COULD ALIGN WELL DOWN THE MOHAWK AND UPSLOPE TOWARD THE TACONICS AND BERKS FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER...BANDS WILL BE MIGRATING NORTHWARD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS TIME DURATION. THE COMBINATION OF LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE DACKS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Single band of lake-effect snow starting to reorganize heading into the Sterling area. The band will probably stay in the same general location for the next several hours as the 850 mb wind stays around 300 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 A bit of a difference (2012 on left....last year on right): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So... Could we be looking at a "late in the game" lake effect snow season? A bit of a difference (2012 on left....last year on right): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So... Could we be looking at a "late in the game" lake effect snow season? Well, Ontario is always "game" for LES, provided we get -13C or colder 850's.....L. Erie, however, generally tends to have a 3-5 week dormant period....but this year...maybe NONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The title of the thread says it all. The "Heart of Winter 2012". Is it too late to rename this thread the "heartless" winter of 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 did anyone see the 0z GFS? It explodes a storm moving up the east coast on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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