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Upstate NY/North Country: Heart of Winter 2012


Logan11

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Hoping to get this thread going because the other one has exceeded recommended size.....at 1340+ posts.

The main thread is very voluminous now so it seems like time to ditch it and start another.

A couple decent synoptic snow threats over the next 7 days, not counting Tuesday's snow event primarily north of the border.

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WWA for tonight

339 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS

EVENING TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...THE

LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN

INCH...WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MIXING WITH

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN

AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN

RAIN BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT

THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE

HWO

AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE

VALLEY...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. SHOULD CONFIDENCE

INCREASE FURTHER THAT STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR...THEN APPROPRIATE

WIND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.

IN ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE

LOCALIZED MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SHOULD CONFIDENCE LEVELS INCREASE FURTHER THAT MODERATE SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...THEN APPROPRIATE WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS

WILL BE ISSUED.

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Took the kids snowshoeing near Piseco Lake today. There was about 12" of snow on the ground with a nice base and some good powder on top. Unfortunatlely there wasn't enough snow on the trail to cover the rock that smacked my right butt cheek / upper thigh while we used our hiking sleds to slide down the mountain. Papa's got a heck of a bruise now. :o

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They just upped their forecast to 8 to 12 inches...OL, thoughts?

i did notice that the models have cooled off some this afternoon, but still that sounds extremely ambitious!

i would say 2 to 4 inches then some FRZRA.....perhaps areas to the N of the city could see 3-6 inches and just S of the city may only see 1-2 inches.

still another win in ottawa while everyone else turns to rain :lol:

got my umbrella ready! :axe:

keep us posted...

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Batch of snow here left close to an inch and still at a cold 21.6F.... More forming in western NY and southern Ontario which may be snow ehen it gets over here, but this warm advection stuff will pass south of the main snow zones for tomorrow. Yours comes later and by then we are liquid or maybe dry slotted.

WSW up now...they are still calling for up to 12 inches lol.

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Batch of snow here left close to an inch and still at a cold 21.6F.... More forming in western NY and southern Ontario which may be snow ehen it gets over here, but this warm advection stuff will pass south of the main snow zones for tomorrow. Yours comes later and by then we are liquid or maybe dry slotted.

You picked up an inch? Impressive! Only 0.25" here. Wouldn't be so sure on the next batch being snow...think we've already got some fz drizzle mixing in here as things lighten up.

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Batch of snow here left close to an inch and still at a cold 21.6F.... More forming in western NY and southern Ontario which may be snow ehen it gets over here, but this warm advection stuff will pass south of the main snow zones for tomorrow. Yours comes later and by then we are liquid or maybe dry slotted.

How did you end up with an inch? Nothing on radar that would drop anything more then a dusting there...

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40 degrees and VERY heavy rain the last few hours. Bring on the 50s-60s! I want lake erie warm again.

While im not sure if the lakes gonna freeze I think its safe to say were pretty screwed for lake effect for a whileee. Remember when you said Jan could bring 30 to 40 inches for BUF and I guessed 11 inches... I think i'll be just about spot on. No way BUF sees close to 30-40 inches this month... I continue with my thinking that Febuary will be the colest and snowiest month of this winter (not that that'll take very much)...
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While im not sure if the lakes gonna freeze I think its safe to say were pretty screwed for lake effect for a whileee. Remember when you said Jan could bring 30 to 40 inches for BUF and I guessed 11 inches... I think i'll be just about spot on. No way BUF sees close to 30-40 inches this month... I continue with my thinking that Febuary will be the colest and snowiest month of this winter (not that that'll take very much)...

Still 2 weeks left...Lots of possibilities of snow. I received around 15 inches so far this January, so I believe I will still hit 30. I just hope Lake Erie doesn't freeze, the one year we had 2-3 LES events in March, was awesome! The pattern does not look condusive for long term cold for the rest of this winter, even into next from the few long range forecast I have seen.

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Fun ride home last night. Left Exit 16 in Orange Cty. with flurries at 7pm. These continued up to Kingston. As soon as I got up into the Catskills it turned into a dangerous Freezing rain/ sleet mix which made roads trecherous until I got almost to Albany where it turned to all snow. When I got on the Northway in Clifton Park it was pouring snow with wind whipped powder dancing all across the road. It gradualy decreased in intensity as I travelled North of there until I got to Saratoga where it was bone dry.

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NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-

GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-

ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...

NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...

CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...

SPRINGVILLE

415 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST

WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO FALL AND CREATE

ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

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Anyone want this forecast? (from Mt. Rainier) ;)

Today: Snow showers. High near 5. Breezy, with a west wind between 21 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near -2 by midnight, then rising to around 7 during the remainder of the night. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 34 to 40 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Windy, with a west southwest wind between 30 and 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 31 to 37 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Windy, with a west southwest wind between 21 and 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

Thursday Night: Snow. Low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Friday: Snow. High near 12. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

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Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans

5:30 AM EST Tuesday 17 January 2012

Winter storm warning for

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans continued

..Heavy snow followed by freezing rain..

A deepening low will track northeast across southern and Eastern Ontario today accompanied by significant snow. Patchy freezing drizzle will be replaced by snow heavy at times this morning before changing to ice pellets and freezing rain later in the day. Snowfall amounts of close to 15 centimetres are likely followed by some ice buildup due to freezing rain. Conditions should improve tonight when the low moves over the Ottawa area into Quebec.

Driving conditions will become hazardous today due to accumulating snow, very low visibility in heavy snow, and potential for ice buildup on untreated surfaces when the freezing rain arrives.

A deepening low will move northeast across lower Michigan into Southern Ontario near the Sarnia area this morning. It will then track northeast to north of Toronto by this evening then across the Ottawa area into Southern Quebec tonight.

This low will bring significant snow and freezing rain to regions near and northwest of its track.

Refer to your local public forecast for further details.

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