Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Just wanted to bump this. They now have 42º for Sunday. Not too many times you see them take a chance in the extended...and be too high. 12z MEX has 35º FWIW. The torch getting muted looks real. Question is to what extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The torch getting muted looks real. Question is to what extent. Still above normal overall for us in the extended I believe...just not super duper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm riding the Don S. train til April. His speculation and mid range forecasting has been damn good this season. I hope so, but am skeptical until there is strong run-to-run continuity on this idea. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles have forecast a number of pattern changes that didn't work out. Instead, what one saw were short-lived cooler periods. Recent warming in ENSO Region 1+2 while Region 3.4 has remained relatively stable increases the risk of a February 1999 ENSO situation. February 1999 also had a neutral to somewhat positive AO and neutral PNA (monthly averages). Among the dates listed on the GFS ensembles' 11-day objective analogs centered around 1/29/2012 is 1/25/1999. The ECMWF ensembles also show the MJO finally escaping the low amplitude circle and emerging in Phase 5 at the end of January. Phase 5 is typically mild in the East: So my guess at this point is that the ECMWF ensembles might be hinting at some opportunities for cold shots, but much more evidence needs to become available for me to buy into a cold February scenario. Having said that, I do not believe February 2012 will be a February 1999-style disaster. Something similar to February 1956, but with more expansive warm anomalies seems to be more likely, but that's not yet cast in concrete. Again, this is just my opinion. I could well be wrong (and I hope so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Made it to 59 yesterday after midnight, followed by tstorms with a barrage of hail...now an inch or two of snow on the way tomorrow and then a wintry mess on Friday. Nice variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wednesday, January 18th: Hi: 25F Lo: 8F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 24MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I believe MSP has till midnight to get below 0 or it will be the longest they have gone to start a winter without going that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The arctic boundary has moved through MSP...the temp dropped from 25F down to 2F in four hours. Loations in NW ND and NE MT are near -20F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I believe MSP has till midnight to get below 0 or it will be the longest they have gone to start a winter without going that low. Really? MSN got below zero this morning, never thought that would happen before MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 MSP has a very strong heat island effect it would seem. Way warmer then surrounding areas on cold nites. I was at 15F last ob, while Rochester was 3F (65 miles west)... its coming. I can usually tell the temp just by how much my furnace kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gfs vs ecmwf in the long range, ecmwf doesn't want to break down the ak vortex vs the rapid breakdown and shift to a very cold pattern from the gfs for the long range. ecmwf wants to shift the vortex a bit east but still nowhere near as cold as the gfs would be in the day 9-10 frame. Something to watch.... I'd lean towards the ecmwf based on this winters pattern for the ak vortex to stick around a bit longer but i haven't looked at mjo or any sort of qbo signals yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just started snowing lightly here. May pick up a half inch or so from the looks of things. Still at 27 just ahead of the arctic front, which will probably be the high for the day. We'll likely be 20 degrees colder by noon with gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I believe MSP has till midnight to get below 0 or it will be the longest they have gone to start a winter without going that low. MSP hit -1 at 11:59PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snowing pretty good now with nice dendrites. Should bode well for areas further east/southeast later tonight and tomorrow where the models indicate better QPF. Get the impression that ratios here are pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Actually ripping pretty good out there right now. Visibility probably about a half mile or so. No pixie dust here, nice dendrites. Already a few tenths down in less than a half hour to 45min. This has strangely boosted my optimism for the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I know it is the GFS at the end of the run, but wow does it get cold. -23°C 850 temps for GRR. That is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 IND's morning AFD: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MAJOR OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL IN THELONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SOME FLAKES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 IND's morning AFD: Definitely looking like liquid precip for the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 -5F right now...bitter out there. That was far below the forecast (think they were calling for 2F)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 -7F ... Cold air continues to filter in. Going to be a brutal day. 6z GFS shows some very cold air coming down early Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Picked up 0.3" of snow from the early morning hit. Temps aren't budging here even with lots of sun. Been sitting at 9 for quite awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just wanted to bump this. They now have 42º for Sunday. Not too many times you see them take a chance in the extended...and be too high. 12z MEX has 35º FWIW. Should have kept my mouth shut. Looks like the torch is back on for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Should have kept my mouth shut. Looks like the torch is back on for Sunday. But still more subdued overall compared to what it looked like several days ago. Days after that look more run of the mill above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe a small severe threat into the Ohio Valley late Sunday? Not gonna get caught off guard this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Frigid here this morning. Temperatures have been dropping since 3am. 3°/-6°, -10° Wind chill presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe a small severe threat into the Ohio Valley late Sunday? Not gonna get caught off guard this time. Snow, hail, snow, hail? I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 But still more subdued overall compared to what it looked like several days ago. Days after that look more run of the mill above average. Well, for a few days. Another shot of very warm temps after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow, hail, snow, hail? I like it. The synoptics are actually pretty darn favorable for a severe weather outbreak, but moisture/instability appear to be marginal. A little more of that could go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, for a few days. Another shot of very warm temps after that. Roller coaster. Models are going to have fits in the medium/long range me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe a small severe threat into the Ohio Valley late Sunday? Not gonna get caught off guard this time. Add a bit of instability and it looks like a decent setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2 °F under full sun. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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