SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually Rich Luterman is one of the better Mets on local TV. He absolutely nailed the 2011 GHD and Prez Day systems. Aug 24th last summer he nailed the severe weather outbreak to a T. After those events he has my respect. I think many don't like him because he is a not weenie and he has a horrid New England sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes, the NAM is moist. With the high ratios verbatim it would probably be a foot in some areas of northeast iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes, the NAM is moist. With the high ratios verbatim it would probably be a foot in some areas of northeast iowa. The NAM is too moist 99.99% of the time, including now, but I expect 12" totals with this storm on .4-.5" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually Rich Luterman is one of the better Mets on local TV. He absolutely nailed the 2011 GHD and Prez Day systems. Aug 24th last summer he nailed the severe weather outbreak to a T. After those events he has my respect. I think many don't like him because he is a not weenie and he has a horrid New England sound. Wow, he was actually calling for the heavy snow pres day? Every outlet I heard said 1-3" so I assumed Fox 2 was that at the most. If not then yes, kudos to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually Rich Luterman is one of the better Mets on local TV. He absolutely nailed the 2011 GHD and Prez Day systems. Aug 24th last summer he nailed the severe weather outbreak to a T. After those events he has my respect. I think many don't like him because he is a not weenie and he has a horrid New England sound. He always low balling systems. In this area its a good and safe play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM is bananas for southern WI. 0.75"+. Heh, oh NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Furthermore, only NAM woukd come south and trend WARMER. 850mb temps for Detroit are above -3*C this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, he was actually calling for the heavy snow pres day? Every outlet I heard said 1-3" so I assumed Fox 2 was that at the most. If not then yes, kudos to him. The worst IMO are the NBC people around here. Not too name any names. Lol. W/e weather is a b**ch to forecast. People screw it up sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Weird to see not much precip (rain) to the south of the snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 He always low balling systems. In this area its a good and safe play Exactly he's not a weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z NAM is going to be an overturned semi truck full of Oscar Meyer weenies for Chicago folks correct, changes to the west are minimal but earlier NAM runs took it more due east, this is digging more ESE. heaviest band still north of here along and north of the border. Agree there will be some double digit totals in the heaviest swath. These frontogenic bands can do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually Rich Luterman is one of the better Mets on local TV. He absolutely nailed the 2011 GHD and Prez Day systems. Aug 24th last summer he nailed the severe weather outbreak to a T. After those events he has my respect. I think many don't like him because he is a not weenie and he has a horrid New England sound. He did nail the 2011 GHD, but it was by sheer luck that he did. Too bad he missed all the other subsequent events (I'll have to reevaluate his forecast for President's Day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 heaviest band still north of here along and north of the border. Agree there will be some double digit totals in the heaviest swath. These frontogenic bands can do wonders. I suspect it's still too far north, agreement amongst the GFS/Euro/GGEM is too good to buy into the NAM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM spits out 0.50"+ QPF for most of the Detroit area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I suspect it's still too far north, agreement amongst the GFS/Euro/GGEM is too good to buy into the NAM right now. NAM also much warmer up around 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM also much warmer up around 850mb. 0-line up to Lake Michigan by 66...GFS has it down around STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well technically, the NAM didn't come south (in fact the low press center is further north and a little more organized), it only changed where it places the best forcing at. In any event, instead of nail biting over precipitation types, I'll pass on the NAM and take the slightly drier and much colder GFS. Then again, it is the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 He did nail the 2011 GHD, but it was by sheer luck that he did. Too bad he missed all the other subsequent events (I'll have to reevaluate his forecast for President's Day). This morning to call event 1" or less is down right irresponsible forecasting when are local NWS clearly stated a 2 to 4" band across metro Detroit and I believe its a conservative/Safe amount for now considering the current winter were in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nice ZR event for LAF on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Amazing how unimpressive this thing looks like at H5. The most subtle of ripples in the ul flow. Not much jet dynamics either. Seems WAA/isentropic lift in a relatively tight baroclinic zone is the primary forcing mechanism. That alone can produce quite heavy snows, but usually there's a better gulf connection. I'd probably be a bit more conservative in my amounts. Definitely going to see some 8"+ amounts wherever some banding sets up, but imo a foot is probably out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 From the NWS in Cleveland... Part of their Area Forecast Discussion at 947 am this morning et... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING LEAVING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR BRINGING SNOW INTO NW OH AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KCLE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LIKE TODAY THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SNOW. WILL NEED NO MORE THAN A CHANCE MENTION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR A DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NEW GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SUGGESTING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IF THINGS DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 So I guess we've presupposed that a northward shift is impossible. Yep, completely. Next run will be good for Cincy, trust me. I was subtly trolling AppsRunner for disaffirming a forecast that called for a bullseye north of the current I-80 model consensus. Too subtle obviously. Calling for 3-7 or 4-8 outside of 24 hours is a little ridiculous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 9z SREF is a Geos special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This morning to call event 1" or less is down right irresponsible forecasting when are local NWS clearly stated a 2 to 4" band across metro Detroit and I believe its a conservative/Safe amount for now considering the current winter were in. Best to just say 'some accumulation likely'. You're not hyping it and you're not belittling it. I haven't watched Detroit local METs in several years. Heck Jerry Hodak was still doing the weather the last time I watched a local MET. I don't even know who Rich Luterman is??? West MI actually have decent local METs. Onto this event. Hard to get excited here as there is much that can go wrong for those of us in the I96/M59 corridor. NAM is nice but the NAM has been basically a disaster this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yep, completely. Next run will be good for Cincy, trust me. Calling for 3-7 or 4-8 outside of 24 hours is a little ridiculous though. It's all good. I was just breaking balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's all good. I was just breaking balls. all ball breaking should take place after 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nice ZR event for LAF on the 12z NAM. Meh, 0.10" liquid total. 900mb temps at 6C should wash down quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 9z SREF member spread is interesting, ETA members really messing with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 From the NWS in Northern Indiana Area Forecast Discussion @ 613 am et this morning... LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON PCPN/QPF POTENTIAL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF INITIAL WAVE FRI AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MERGING WITH THE WAVE FRI NGT INTO SAT. 290K ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS INCREASING LIFT AND LOWERING CPD`S TO SHOW A THREAT FOR SNOW ARRIVING IN NW AREAS BY 18Z FRI. THIS CONTINUES QUICKLY EAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY GETTING INTO THE ACT LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NGT. SREF HAS FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH MAYBE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SEEING ACCUMULATIONS. ECMWF/NAM/GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AT THIS POINT...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO WHERE 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. IF MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS VERIFIED...QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE THIRD INCH COULD YIELD ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP WHICH MAY CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES. CR ALL BLEND TONED DOWN POPS A BIT TOO MUCH FOR MY TASTE CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE GRIDS SEEMING TO AGREE. HAVE TRIED TO ADD SOME TIMING FRIDAY BUT KEPT BROAD BRUSHED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NE AND FAR SE. NWS Wilmington OH AFD @ 848 am this morning (short term)... IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL HAVE A RESPECTABLE IMPACT FOR THE AREA...INCLUDING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...REGARDING BOTH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE MAKING AN EXTREMELY SPECIFIC OR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST. HOWEVER...WHAT HAS BECOME CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER (100 MB OR A FEW THOUSAND FEET AT LEAST) OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S AT THE GROUND. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND A TIMING DIFFERENCE (FASTER) OF ABOUT SIX HOURS AS COMPARED TO THE GFS. WITH VARYING DEGREES OF AGREEMENT (OR DISAGREEMENT) BETWEEN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...WILL KEEP THINGS RATHER GENERAL AND PROBABILISTIC IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN MAKING THE FIRST ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE THESE MIXED PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN THE GRIDS...A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL-RAIN AND ALL-SNOW ELEMENTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE TEMPS BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES. THUS...THE BEST INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THAT THE MIX ZONE WILL CUT THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...WITH ALL RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING (AND EVENTUALLY...MAGNITUDE) OF THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES. THE SNOW NORTH OF THE TRANSITION ZONE WILL LIKELY BE OF THE ACCUMULATING NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I know everyone thinks they're a joke.. BUT... Accuweather has 6-10 inches Friday night for Canton, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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