BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 La crosse mentioned this reminds them of the January 21st 2008 storm. Hrs on end of pixie dust in that one here while torchartie was ripping mod/heavy snow. FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER /UP TO 15K FEET/. IN ADDITION...THE WIND SPEEDS BELOW 8K FEET ARE LESS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING THE DENDRITES INTACT AS THEY FALL TO EARTH. AS A RESULT...THINKING THERE WILL BE HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH THIS SYSTEM. COBB DATA ONLY SUGGESTS 15-20 TO 1 WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT LOW. THIS SYSTEM REMINDS ME A LOT OF THE JANUARY 21 2008 WINTER STORM IN WHICH THE SNOW RATIOS WERE OVER 35 TO 1. FOR THE TIME BEING WENT WITH 20-25 TO 1. THE 17.21Z SREF SHOWS THAT SOME OF THE SNOW RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE ROAD CREWS TO KEEP UP. HOWEVER THE SREF DOES SEEM A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SNOW. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM 4 TENTHS TO A HALF INCH...AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST LIQUID TOTAL APPROACHING SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH. ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT THESE TOTALS WERE A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB WINDS AND 280K-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES HAVE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SO THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY NOT BE AS BAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT. AT THIS TIME THINKING THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 4 TO 8 INCHES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUED. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=30&year=2008&month=1&day=21&hour=6&minute=25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro Wetter, NAM south...trend is my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 FWIW...looking pretty good for Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Couldn't get much closer to I-80 winning on the GFS: Meanwhile, the NAM torches everyone around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 After some further review, i really wanted to hype the ratio issue a bit more. First, lets put the last storm behind us, totally different setup (heck we were near 50 not 12 hours before on set), cold filtered in late and surfaces were wet and warm. This go around looks close to perfect...about as big a DGZ as you see around here that coincides nicely with good lift, ice cold dry surfaces and nearly calm winds. The 20:1 talk isn't just warranted, i think we'll see better than that, especially under any banding and if lake moisture gets pulled in as mentioned by LOT. EDIT: I see MKE is going full weenie like I just did, mentions ratios at 20:1 to start and drops a 30:1 mention in for fun. Geos is going to slant stick a 15"er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DTX going soft with 2 to 4 inches. My call is 3 to 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 LOT CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS/GUIDANCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVES LOOKS TO BRING DECENT FORCING TO THE CWA BY THE LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY...WITH BEST FORCING APPEARING TO BE LOCATED FURTHER TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN LINE. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DIAGNOSE MESOSCALE DETAILS AT THIS TIME...SEVERAL HOURS OF DECENT FORCING AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE THIS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN LINE. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE LOOKING TO BE COMING IN LINE FOR A CHANCE AT A GOOD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT. AS THIS WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTH...LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP SETUP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS AID IN FORCING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...BUT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WHERE THIS AIR WILL BE ORIGINATING FROM...MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WILL RESIDE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN PLACE...THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA IS GROWING WITH EVERY MODEL RUN. RODRIGUEZ then after the 6z runs... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 549 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012 DISCUSSION 525 AM CST A BRIEF UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THIS MORNING...AFTER ANALYZING 6Z DATA. CONFIDENCE ONLY CONTINUES TO GROW AT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FACTORS PERTAINING TO LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS AND STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE RICH AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...OTHER FACTORS ALSO BECOMING MORE APPARENT WHICH ARE LEADING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH ARE STILL ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THESE FACTORS ARE DEFINITELY INTERESTING SUCH THAT SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS APPEAR TO BE FALLING IN PLACE...WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR CLUES. NOT ONLY WILL THE MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DROPPING WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BE IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT ONCE THIS WAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY FLOP AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD AID WITH POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SNOWFALL RATES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD KEEP BETTER FORCING/DEFORMATION SNOW IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY ADD TO THE SNOW TOTALS. OF COURSE THERE REMAINS SOME TIME BEFORE THIS EVENT ON FRIDAY WITH DETAILS TO STILL UNFOLD...BUT WANTED TO GIVE A BRIEF UPDATE AS TO LATEST INSIGHT TO THIS POTENTIAL SNOW. RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DTX going soft with 2 to 4 inches. My call is 3 to 7 inches 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DTX going soft with 2 to 4 inches. My call is 3 to 7 inches I'd actually say lower than that for you given that you are up in Lake Orion IIRC, but a 30-40 mile band on either side of I-80 looks good for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'd actually say lower than that for you given that you are up in Lake Orion IIRC, but a 30-40 mile band on either side of I-80 looks good for that. So I guess we've presupposed that a northward shift is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 So I guess we've presupposed that a northward shift is impossible. No way, I love early calls but this is way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No way, I love early calls but this is way too early. I was subtly trolling AppsRunner for disaffirming a forecast that called for a bullseye north of the current I-80 model consensus. Too subtle obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 6z GFS and NAM shifted the highest totals just to my south, but I do like where I am. Ratios should be pretty high here. Long ways to go though lots can still and will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was subtly trolling AppsRunner for disaffirming a forecast that called for a bullseye north of the current I-80 model consensus. Too subtle obviously. It's early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's early That's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 WJBK just said... " System on Friday to bring an Inch or less " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The doctor beefing up QPF is nice to see. Still a mix at best here, but resigned to my fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This is pretty good consensus and there is a lot to be excited about with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The doctor beefing up QPF is nice to see. Still a mix at best here, but resigned to my fate. One word.. S****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 WJBK just said... " System on Friday to bring an Inch or less " Local news weather folks are a joke. Could be snowing 4 inches an hour and they'd say light snow will not accumulate too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Couldn't get much closer to I-80 winning on the GFS: Meanwhile, the NAM torches everyone around here Just needs to move 200 miles further south with the precip sheild extending 200 miles further north. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 should be noted that SREF was quite a bit north at 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 should be noted that SREF was quite a bit north at 72... Rather poor consensus amongst the individual members (lol @ the ETAs) and with the 6z NAM coming south more, i expect it to start improving before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The newest sref looks to have shifted to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Local news weather folks are a joke. Could be snowing 4 inches an hour and they'd say light snow will not accumulate too much. So true, so true. My mom has an interest in the weather/snow, but her worst habit is still watching what the news says. im like...NOOO lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Rather poor consensus amongst the individual members (lol @ the ETAs) and with the 6z NAM coming south more, i expect it to start improving before too long. lol i know...it had been scoring pretty damn good in the 72 hour range...i guess more of a FWIW (trust me, i want to throw it in the trash myself) and actually that was only the friggen 3Z run, so grain of salt i suppose... i shall crawl back to my hole now . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol i know...it had been scoring pretty damn good in the 72 hour range...i guess more of a FWIW (trust me, i want to throw it in the trash myself) and actually that was only the friggen 3Z run, so grain of salt i suppose... i shall crawl back to my hole now . . . no big deal, it's worth throwing out there, early signs look like the 12z NAM will continue to trend south and if that's the case I'd look for the SREF mean to follow. I'm going to toss out a trademarked too early call for our area after the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 WJBK just said... " System on Friday to bring an Inch or less " You still watch that terrible newscast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not seeing much of a south shift in the NAM at least in the Iowa and Minnesota areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z NAM is going to be an overturned semi truck full of Oscar Meyer weenies for Chicago folks Not seeing much of a south shift in the NAM at least in the Iowa and Minnesota areas. correct, changes to the west are minimal but earlier NAM runs took it more due east, this is digging more ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.