AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Other than the ukie, I'm starting to get a little optimistic. Too far out to say anything more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow all the 00z runs have been nice so far. Even the crappy NAM was a major improvement. Of course, I'm going to play it by ear. Given the seasonal trends, what the models show happening right now will probably not be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 The GFS is throwing out an outrageously deep DGZ in the heart of the snow band, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The GFS is throwing out an outrageously deep DGZ in the heart of the snow band, wow. dang.....that's impressive...even if it's 66 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GGEM really pounded LAF wow. very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the 0z GFS is a lot wetter than it looks in these parts. 0.44" at VPZ. 0.45" at ORD and MDW, only 0.27" at MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 this will be a Alek and i80 special event. mke blows in clippers and chicago always seems to have a nice east to west fluffy banding event like this a yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 this will be a Alek and i80 special event. mke blows in clippers and chicago always seems to have a nice east to west fluffy banding event like this a yr. This is not really a clipper and so it is difficult to know how this will pan out, although I'm starting to worry about it passing south and keeping us cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 this will be a Alek and i80 special event. mke blows in clippers and chicago always seems to have a nice east to west fluffy banding event like this a yr. This isn't a clipper though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Congrats MKE/ORD/DTW/FDY...00Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro looks quicker than 12z but quite a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 .45" at DPA and .51" at ORD. Much more in line now with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00Z EURO: MOP: 0.19 DTW: 0.49 BTL: 0.48 GRR: 0.38 MKE: 0.45 ORD: 0.50 DVN: 0.22 DBQ: 0.34 TOL: 0.47 LAF: 0.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00Z EURO: MOP: 0.19 DTW: 0.49 BTL: 0.48 GRR: 0.38 MKE: 0.45 ORD: 0.50 DVN: 0.22 DBQ: 0.34 TOL: 0.47 LAF: 0.24 Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00Z EURO: MOP: 0.19 DTW: 0.49 BTL: 0.48 GRR: 0.38 MKE: 0.45 ORD: 0.50 DVN: 0.22 DBQ: 0.34 TOL: 0.47 LAF: 0.24 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 AFD's should be fun to read in the morning with better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00Z EURO: MOP: 0.19 DTW: 0.49 BTL: 0.48 GRR: 0.38 MKE: 0.45 ORD: 0.50 DVN: 0.22 DBQ: 0.34 TOL: 0.47 LAF: 0.24 Terrible compared to the GEM and GFS for here, but expected. Madison, Milwaukee, and Chicago looking nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Like That makes two of us. Sounds like a pretty broad coverage event, similar to how last week's system appeared to be shaping up. Didn't turn out to be as much a spread the wealth situation, but still similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00Z EURO: MOP: 0.19 DTW: 0.49 BTL: 0.48 GRR: 0.38 MKE: 0.45 ORD: 0.50 DVN: 0.22 DBQ: 0.34 TOL: 0.47 LAF: 0.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 .45" at DPA and .51" at ORD. Much more in line now with the GFS. Going back and reading the text output from 12z, the 00z run almost doubled the qpf in the heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 0z ECMWF LSE: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -14.2 -14.0 1022 52 100 0.02 541 525 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.6 -12.7 1020 76 99 0.21 541 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -13.6 -13.3 1020 83 92 0.10 542 527 MSN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -13.0 -11.4 1021 76 100 0.20 544 528 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.8 -11.1 1018 87 98 0.18 544 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -11.0 -11.7 1019 87 59 0.03 545 530 MKE: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.5 -12.6 1021 77 99 0.14 544 528 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.7 -11.3 1017 86 98 0.25 544 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.8 -11.3 1017 83 82 0.06 544 531 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.9 -9.5 1019 22 0.01 547 532 SBM: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.8 -14.7 1022 72 100 0.08 541 524 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.2 -13.6 1019 83 98 0.16 542 527 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.6 -12.6 1018 82 67 0.03 543 528 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.2 -12.0 1020 82 26 0.01 544 529 CID: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -12.7 -8.5 1021 66 96 0.06 549 533 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -9.7 -6.7 1017 73 100 0.06 549 536 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.9 -8.2 1017 84 91 0.06 547 534 DVN: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -10.9 -8.2 1021 57 99 0.03 550 533 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.2 -6.2 1017 60 96 0.05 550 536 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.5 -6.7 1016 84 97 0.13 548 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -11.4 -7.2 1018 87 46 0.01 547 534 PIA: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -3.7 -2.6 1014 67 98 0.05 550 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.1 -3.9 1016 84 71 0.10 549 537 RFD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -9.7 -8.7 1020 77 100 0.17 548 532 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.7 -8.5 1017 88 100 0.21 546 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.0 -8.9 1017 91 66 0.04 546 533 ORD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.2 -8.4 1020 72 100 0.15 548 533 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.7 -7.7 1017 87 100 0.21 547 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.9 -7.6 1015 88 86 0.13 546 534 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.6 -6.5 1018 82 23 0.01 549 535 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -2.7 -3.8 1021 73 17 0.01 554 538 MDW: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.9 -7.8 1020 71 95 0.12 549 534 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.7 -6.7 1016 82 100 0.16 548 535 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.8 -6.8 1015 86 89 0.16 547 535 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.2 -6.2 1018 82 26 0.01 549 535 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -2.7 -3.7 1021 75 16 0.01 554 538 DEC: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -0.8 1.0 1012 64 96 0.02 553 544 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.5 -0.8 1013 84 76 0.13 551 541 VPZ: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.5 -6.9 1020 67 92 0.08 550 534 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.8 -4.6 1016 76 100 0.07 549 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.9 -5.1 1015 87 95 0.23 548 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.4 -6.1 1018 88 36 0.01 549 535 LAF: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -3.8 -3.7 1019 41 66 0.01 554 539 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.2 -0.2 1014 51 96 0.01 552 541 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.3 -1.4 1012 87 93 0.22 550 541 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.8 -2.5 1017 86 32 0.01 551 538 IND: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -0.7 2.2 1013 60 96 0.01 555 545 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.9 1.9 1010 91 90 0.16 553 545 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.4 -0.4 1016 87 54 0.01 552 539 OKK: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -5.2 -4.3 1020 46 87 0.01 553 538 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -3.1 -0.2 1015 50 95 0.01 552 541 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.5 -1.1 1012 89 97 0.25 550 541 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.7 -2.8 1016 87 47 0.02 550 537 FWA: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.0 -7.0 1022 52 100 0.03 552 535 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.3 -2.6 1017 62 95 0.04 551 538 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.4 -2.0 1013 89 98 0.28 549 539 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.5 -4.8 1016 87 61 0.04 549 537 HAO: SAT 00Z 21-JAN 0.0 2.7 1014 57 100 0.01 557 546 SAT 06Z 21-JAN 0.3 5.8 1009 96 97 0.19 555 548 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.5 1.0 1013 91 57 0.11 553 543 DAY: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.6 3.5 1010 91 99 0.15 554 546 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.6 -0.4 1013 90 64 0.09 552 541 CMH: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.3 3.9 1011 90 91 0.15 554 546 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.7 1.2 1011 90 75 0.17 552 543 TDZ: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.3 -6.2 1019 72 95 0.12 550 535 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.9 -3.8 1014 90 98 0.26 548 537 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.5 -5.4 1015 89 75 0.11 548 536 CLE: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.8 -5.3 1020 74 90 0.08 551 535 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.7 -2.4 1014 88 100 0.20 549 538 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 -3.6 1013 91 89 0.20 548 538 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -1.8 -2.7 1018 82 17 0.01 552 538 MKG: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.9 -14.0 1022 73 99 0.06 543 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.9 -10.2 1019 83 99 0.21 544 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.9 -10.3 1018 85 89 0.08 544 530 GRR: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.6 -12.9 1023 65 98 0.04 544 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -9.1 -9.1 1019 83 100 0.21 545 530 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.4 -9.1 1018 87 92 0.13 544 531 BTL: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.8 -11.5 1023 64 99 0.04 546 529 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.6 -7.7 1019 82 100 0.21 547 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.9 -7.1 1016 88 97 0.22 546 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.5 -8.1 1018 88 41 0.01 547 533 ADG: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.6 -10.7 1024 50 100 0.01 548 530 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.0 -7.2 1019 80 99 0.16 549 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.0 -5.2 1015 91 99 0.28 547 535 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.9 -6.6 1017 88 68 0.06 547 534 DTW: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.8 -8.2 1020 80 100 0.15 547 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.7 -6.2 1016 90 99 0.27 546 534 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.6 -7.2 1016 88 68 0.07 546 534 PHN: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -9.3 -11.2 1022 78 100 0.08 545 528 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.6 -8.0 1017 88 99 0.20 545 531 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.0 -8.3 1016 88 62 0.04 545 532 YKF: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.5 -13.5 1024 67 100 0.02 543 525 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.6 -10.5 1019 85 99 0.11 543 528 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -6.0 -8.7 1016 90 79 0.07 543 531 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.1 -7.5 1019 72 17 0.01 546 531 YYZ: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.5 -14.6 1024 59 100 0.01 542 523 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.4 -12.3 1020 80 99 0.09 542 527 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.8 -9.9 1017 83 86 0.08 543 530 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.5 -8.5 1019 74 18 0.01 545 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Going back and reading the text output from 12z, the 00z run almost doubled the qpf in the heavy band. Yeah I believe it had .25" around here. The GFS/Euro differ on the southern extent of the better snow west of here it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DTX updated my grid forecast...: Friday: Snow likely after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well, 0.19" is an improvement over 0.03". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Almost 70" here in 96-97 and more than 55" in 95-96. Even 97-98 which was a horrible winter generally we managed about 45". I take solace in the fact that this type of screwage doesn't happen to me exclusively. Anyway, I'll take my griping to the complaint thread. By no means do I need to be bullseyed on Saturday. Just 2-3" would be fine. Complete whiff is going to send me packing. Yeah its pretty natural. Every area gets screwed in stretches (the 1940s around here are unparalleled here). One small fact of solace is that no matter how good or bad things get, we can always count on SOME winter weather (see the east coast this winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2 late March storms saved us or else it would have been horrid numbers. EVERYTHING MISSED it seemed like those years 1995-96 was the winter where you could carve a little hole around Chicago and Detroit and everywhere else N, S, E, W was getting theirs. I didnt realize it at the time, but that was the ultimate screw winter. 12" of my 31" came in March, including the 7" snowstorm on Mar 19/20. My peak DJF snow depth was 4". Now, 1997-98 I only saw 2.2" in the March 21/22 snowstorm. We did ok the 2nd half of January with several light snowfalls, allowing depth to peak at 6" late month. In general, one thing a snowlover could count on in the '90s was a late March snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00Z EURO: MOP: 0.19 DTW: 0.49 BTL: 0.48 GRR: 0.38 MKE: 0.45 ORD: 0.50 DVN: 0.22 DBQ: 0.34 TOL: 0.47 LAF: 0.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nope. Although we still get grazed. Love this board, but if this ends up missing us to the south, I'm done for the winter. I was just catching up and saw your post. I hope you don't quit posting. I enjoy reading your thoughts and I'm learning a lot about ON climo. And I kinda agree with Hoosier. This place is like Hotel California "You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah its pretty natural. Every area gets screwed in stretches (the 1940s around here are unparalleled here). One small fact of solace is that no matter how good or bad things get, we can always count on SOME winter weather (see the east coast this winter). 5.7" through 1/18 is near the lowest amount of snow necessary to qualify as "some winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was just catching up and saw your post. I hope you don't quit posting. I enjoy reading your thoughts and I'm learning a lot about ON climo. And I kinda agree with Hoosier. This place is like Hotel California "You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave". Words too kind for the likes of me. Thanks. I like your posts as well, from what I can tell (read: post more! ) The problem is, when things go as bad as they've been going, it really drains a lot of the enjoyment of participating in this community I'd otherwise be experiencing. Also, I'm studying for an entrance exam right now and I could be using my time more wisely that tracking 14 flakes on the 3z SREFS. All hypothetical though. ~0.20" with good ratios and some lake enhancement on Saturday and I'm good to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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