dmc76 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 .25-all snow Not bad 2-4". Actually ratios might be Higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Sure, it just seems locked in on a drier overall solution (not so much talking about IMBY) and it does better overall at QPF without the tendency to inflate like the NAM. You know you bring up a point though that I have started to notice with the Euro, it has been consistently light on the QPF compared to other models this winter and has ended up being too light. Might be something to keep an eye on, this current system is a good example of the Euro under doing the QPF in several locations. Not trying to justify it or say Euro is incorrect but it is something to keep an eye on. I have also noticed the Euro ensembles consistently being higher than the OP Euro, might be interesting to see what they show for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 much different setup i'm talking about the little blip of qpf right by northeast IL.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Just for clarification, the Euro remains the best model with QPF up to 0.50", at 72 hours in the Midwest for the past month. GFS is second...NAM is junk. What is interesting though, is the scores drop from 48 hours in, at the 0.50" threshold: http://www.hpc.ncep..../m1_48h_mdw.gif 24 hours on in, it regains its dominance...again though the 0.50" threshold: http://www.hpc.ncep..../m1_24h_mdw.gif Link to page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/verify.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Just for clarification, the Euro remains the best model with QPF up to 0.50", at 72 hours in the Midwest for the past month. GFS is second...NAM is junk. What is interesting though, is the scores drop from 48 hours in, at the 0.50" threshold: http://www.hpc.ncep..../m1_48h_mdw.gif 24 hours on in, it regains its dominance...again though the 0.50" threshold: http://www.hpc.ncep..../m1_24h_mdw.gif Link to page: http://www.hpc.ncep....scr/verify.html thanks for this, the NAM being crap is expected and i believe the Euro has held this title for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GFS/Euro both drop .15-.2 qpf as freezing rain across central Indiana. Not talking huge amounts but enough to be a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Who even keeps track of how accurate these models are from 72 hours out compared to what actually occurs. Seems pretty involved and hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 With surface temps nearly -10C, probably insane enough ratios that some areas may approach 6 inches even if they only receive 0.2-0.25" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GFS/Euro both drop .15-.2 qpf as freezing rain across central Indiana. Not talking huge amounts but enough to be a pain. Dangit, I had a feeling that was the case just looking at the 850s. Didn't want to look at the surface Ts. Riding the edge here in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 With surface temps nearly -10C, probably insane enough ratios that some areas may approach 6 inches even if they only receive 0.2-0.25" QPF. Just taking a quick look at the 12z GFS, the DGZ looks the best north of MKE. It's like 450 mb deep for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Dangit, I had a feeling that was the case just looking at the 850s. Didn't want to look at the surface Ts. Riding the edge here in LAF. Our forecast soundings look more snowy/sleety at this point depending on the model but we're not far. NAM extrapolated looks like it would be zr but it's the NAM extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Who even keeps track of how accurate these models are from 72 hours out compared to what actually occurs. Seems pretty involved and hard to do. HPC...it's what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z EURO surely sucks over here. Still time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This storm reminds me of the one in Febuary 5-6th 2010. The dividing line was right along 1-70 it was supposed to change to rain, but it stayed at 32-33 all day with heavy wet snow. I ended up with about a foot, it was a few inches less about 10 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not really. I don't see much potential for central ohio unless it is weak, then it still isn't much to right home about. Not much potential? It had a great track 3 runs ago, it could easily go back towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This type of set-up is definitely favorable for a freezing rain scenario for someone with the shallow arctic air mass slow to retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This type of set-up is definitely favorable for a freezing rain scenario for someone with the shallow arctic air mass slow to retreat. Hopefully it sleets or rains instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This type of set-up is definitely favorable for a freezing rain scenario for someone with the shallow arctic air mass slow to retreat. Agreed. There is a pretty warm pool of air aloft to the southwest, some of which will be drawn in to this system. Also not likely to be dealing with convective/heavy precip rates that could unexpectedly cool the column enough for sleet to dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Agreed. There is a pretty warm pool of air aloft to the southwest, some of which will be drawn in to this system. Also not likely to be dealing with convective/heavy precip rates that could unexpectedly cool the column enough for sleet to dominate. :yikes: :yikes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 nam would suck for us southners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GRR plenty of cold air will be in place at the start of the extended period. Friday could be a snowy day if certain things that the models are showing actually happen. Arctic air will be in place...800 mb temperatures near -20c. The next system...currently over the eastern Pacific will move across The Rockies and emerge as low pressure in Texas. As this system moves northeast toward the Ohio Valley. Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS show a fgen band developing well north of the surface low over the northern plains and moving eastward across lower Michigan Friday. The trowal associated with this moves across the central County Warning Area. A 3-6 inch snow seems possible if this were to actually occur. However...fgen bands can be really difficult to pin down days in advance...but it serves as a starting point to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 nam would suck for us southners. Nam is reallly warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 nam would suck for us southners. What would suck is if the 18z NAM at 84 hrs was actually right for once this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What would suck is if the 18z NAM at 84 hrs was actually right for once this year. It seems like the 84 hr run nails it once or twice per winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 What would suck is if the 18z NAM at 84 hrs was actually right for once this year. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 lol, the NAM is 0 for the winter. Why give it any credence at all...unless you're a masochist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 lol, the NAM is 0 for the winter. We're flirting with plain rain on this run. I know you're a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We're flirting with plain rain on this run. I know you're a fan. Cold cold rain. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 DTX,,, A better chance for accumulating snowfall...across the southern two thirds of the County Warning Area...will come Friday night as geopotential heights retreat northward across the entire region. Right entrance region dynamics are expected to stripe eastward atop increasing warm air advection. Timing of features within the model guidance suggests a favorable 6-12hr period for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gino MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEIR HANDLING OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD FAVOR A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE AND STILL THOUSANDS OF MILES OFFSHORE AND UNSAMPLED BY UPPER AIR NETWORK SO FORECAST TRACK IS FAR FROM ETCHED IN STONE. ANY SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN PRETTY BIG DEVIATIONS TO THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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