Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Local met calling for a half inch to inch of sleet in LAF. After getting pingered to death last year, I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Local met calling for a half inch to inch of sleet in LAF. After getting pingered to death last year, I hope not. We won't have enough precip to measure an inch, 0.5", of sleet. Plus, he's not very good at forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Local met calling for a half inch to inch of sleet in LAF. After getting pingered to death last year, I hope not. I hope not either! You get sleet, I get sleet. IWX has me down for 1-2 inches tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We won't have enough precip to measure an inch, 0.5", of sleet. Plus, he's not very good at forecasting. chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We won't have enough precip to measure an inch, 0.5", of sleet. Plus, he's not very good at forecasting. Can't remember the typical sleet ratio....I think it's around 3:1? If so then we could get close to the half inch if precip is mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I hope not either! You get sleet, I get sleet. IWX has me down for 1-2 inches tomorrow night. Unfortunately I think there's a real chance that much of the precip is sleet in a band north of I-70 but let's see what the 00z runs say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Can't remember the typical sleet ratio....I think it's around 3:1? If so then we could get close to the half inch if precip is mostly sleet. 3:1 sounds right. Eh, the consensus precip totals seem to be in the 0.15-0.20" range for us...so he better hope it's all sleet. Again, I'll take the under on that nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 More talk of the rpm than I have seen in awhile. It might end up right but one can't logically through the NAM and then live by the rpm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hmmm just glancing at the new RPM and to keep it a choice of topic here lol, it does show a new interesting solution. Has the intial band of snow fire well north in SD/IA/MN that weakens and the main band ends up developing over central IA and is a good run for points eastward http://www.chicagoweathercenter.com/maps/rpm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 More talk of the rpm than I have seen in awhile. It might end up right but one can't logically through the NAM and then live by the rpm. No one should live and die by any model. Well, a little for the Euro I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hmmm just glancing at the new RPM and to keep it a choice of topic here lol, it does show a new interesting solution. Has the intial band of snow fire well north in SD/IA/MN that weakens and the main band ends up developing over central IA and is a good run for points eastward http://www.chicagowe...r.com/maps/rpm/ Cool! Looks a bit further south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No one should live and die by any model. Well, a little for the Euro I suppose. I would tend to agree. But FWIW, the GFS (at least out W) was pretty superior to all guidance w.r.t. overall track, and most importantly, amplitude of the wave as it crossed into the plains. ECMWF even a couple days ago almost had nothing aloft...a weak piece of junk wave and a track into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would tend to agree. But FWIW, the GFS (at least out W) was pretty superior to all guidance w.r.t. overall track, and most importantly, amplitude of the wave as it crossed into the plains. ECMWF even a couple days ago almost had nothing aloft...a weak piece of junk wave and a track into NE. Good to know about out west. GFS has seemingly been pretty consistent in this neck of the woods. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 In terms of wetness of the solutions, I think what they (the models) are keying in on is the rather intense deformation frontogenesis and the relatively narrow corridor in association with the vortex across Canada. WAA will be relatively minimal as that vortex across Canada will essentially turn much of the advection pattern into a strong frontogenetical zone. Horizontal deformation frontogenesis is key here...and there will be a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 In terms of wetness of the solutions, I think what they (the models) are keying in on is the rather intense deformation frontogenesis and the relatively narrow corridor in association with the vortex across Canada. WAA will be relatively minimal as that vortex across Canada will essentially turn much of the advection pattern into a strong frontogenetical zone. Horizontal deformation frontogenesis is key here...and there will be a lot of it. Thanks for chiming in sir, hope you are around some tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks for chiming in sir, hope you are around some tonight and tomorrow. I will be in here and both the plains thread as this thing gets going. Finally off after 5 shifts in a row of 4 AM (12Z upper air shifts) doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 would be great to have Baro lurking for the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I will be in here and both the plains thread as this thing gets going. Finally off after 5 shifts in a row of 4 AM (12Z upper air shifts) doom. Yikes, although I enjoyed doing upper air when I was the SCEP at WFO NYC, so glad we don't have it here at LOT, we keep our morning data desk shifts to 6-2 year round. 12z in the winter can obviously be busy and we have to be here a bit earlier for it. Which FO are you at? Appreciate the thoughts on the snow event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 nervous silence before the first sampled runs....everyone going through their various superstitious routines....good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 nervous silence before the first sampled runs....everyone going through their various superstitious routines....good stuff I will admit I am, and I am the say way when I chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wasn't too worried until the damn RPM updated and gave us some hope back lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 nervous silence before the first sampled runs....everyone going through their various superstitious routines....good stuff I will be wearing my favorite work shirt tomorrow in hope that we fluff up to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I will admit I am, and I am the say way when I chase. my winter weather superstitions aren't nearly as bad as my pitcher's mound antics that i had...but, alas. . .i have my good luck shorts on now, so all is well . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 my winter weather superstitions aren't nearly as bad as my pitcher's mound antics that i had...but, alas. . .i have my good luck shorts on now, so all is well . . . haha! me too! I was always like that when i was on the mound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM coming in weaker at 850mb and precip orientation looks better to end up further south than the 18z run through 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I will be wearing my favorite work shirt tomorrow in hope that we fluff up to 6" Sounds good! Just under an inch of powder today, and whether its more fluffy or powdery tomorrow, looks like at the warmest surface temps may be in the low 20s during the event, more likely mid-upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z is def south so far compared to the 00z. Poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z is def south so far compared to the 00z. Poo. In the past with these west to ESE systems, they usually end up staying along and south of 94. But with the lack of blocking this year, a bit surprised its not going a lil further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like the 12z NAM at 18hr but more of a beefed up precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 In the past with these west to ESE systems, they usually end up staying along and south of 94. But with the lack of blocking this year, a bit surprised its not going a lil further north. Looking like it may be one of the few events where the D and southern counties do better than the mountains of Oakland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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