snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12Z Euro an improvement for northern areas... MOP: 0.18 DET: 0.33 PTK: 0.28 DTW: 0.38 BTL: 0.38 GRR: 0.32 MKG: 0.31 MKE: 0.42 ORD: 0.40 DBQ: 0.33 DVN: 0.13 LAF: 0.16 YYZ: 0.11 EE rule = 1" for me. Other models = flurries. what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Many local mets going 4-6". That's my call as well, so I agree atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Also, great looking ratios on the Euro. Hopefully the storm is actually that cold for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z agreement on .35-,4" of QPF here is excellent, riding my early 5" call...probably going to nail it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Skilling's RPM now lifts the wave of snow north of Cedar Rapids/QC. Another low qpf run from the Euro as well. 1-3" may end up being too optimistic in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Local forecast is calling for 3-7" during the day. More snow likely in the evening. East winds becoing Northeast, then north late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 euro stunned me. figured for sure it was going to be down from last nights 0.38" and be more like 0.30" at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Skilling's RPM now lifts the wave of snow north of Cedar Rapids/QC. Another low qpf run from the Euro as well. 1-3" may end up being too optimistic in the end. His RPM is crappy, average the GFS/Euro qpf and take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EE rule = 1" for me. Other models = flurries. what a winter It's tough, but at least we are not likely to get shutout, like the 6z NAM was showing. Saying that, my preliminary call for Toronto is 2-4 cm (1-1.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 euro stunned me. figured for sure it was going to be down from last nights 0.38" and be more like 0.30" at best Same here I was thinking it would show .32-.35, but .42 I would gladly accept that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's tough, but at least we are not likely to get shutout, like the 6z NAM was showing. Saying that, my preliminary call for Toronto is 2-4 cm (1-1.5"). LES could have made this more interesting, but there's not much of a gradient and thus winds are going to stay light. This to me is why the models aren't really painting much in along the western shores. I concur with the amounts you posted. About half of what I was thinking yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The Euro has been extremely consistent in keeping most of the snow to my northeast. I was waiting until this morning's model runs to get a better idea of what I might get, and the Euro appears to have slammed the door shut for anything of note here. I suppose 2 inches is something, but it's a definite buzzkill after what some of the models have teased us with. Our locals appear to be out to lunch with this system. One verteran met just showed the stupid mesoscale snowcast again that drops 10 inches in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City with only a couple inches in far northeast Iowa. He must have seen the latest models, so I don't know why the heck he showed that ridiculous map again and talked about it like it was set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Skilling going with 4-9" Showed 2 models. One saying 10-11" in Chicago another saying 7-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The Euro has been extremely consistent in keeping most of the snow to my northeast. I was waiting until this morning's model runs to get a better idea of what I might get, and the Euro appears to have slammed the door shut for anything of note here. I suppose 2 inches is something, but it's a definite buzzkill after what some of the models have teased us with. Our locals appear to be out to lunch with this system. One verteran met just showed the stupid mesoscale snowcast again that drops 10 inches in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City with only a couple inches in far northeast Iowa. He must have seen the latest models, so I don't know why the heck he showed that ridiculous map again and talked about it like it was set in stone. Yeah one of the local TV stations showed some futurecast type thing that slammed areas as far south as southeast Iowa lol. Have no idea what model that's based on. We can still hope that when the 00z guidance comes in, and it's better sampled that the H5 wave digs a little further south than the previous runs. Like I said yesterday it sure seems weird to go from subzero readings to a system missing largely to the north in less than 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The Euro has been as consistent as you come with this system while the American models have been wavering with run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The Euro has been as consistent as you come with this system while the American models have been wavering with run to run consistency. The ratios are going to be great with this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can do without more nuisance snow, which is what the Hi-Res models suggest. Hopefully from here on change things trend for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The Euro has been as consistent as you come with this system while the American models have been wavering with run to run consistency. The GFS has done quite well in the consistency department, especially the ensemble mean and has been better than the Euro IMBY. Either way i'm using a split between them for about .35" of liquid for 5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With I couls see all the thermo data for La Crosse, but from data available it looks like it could be serious fluff around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12Z Euro an improvement for northern areas... MOP: 0.18 DET: 0.33 PTK: 0.28 DTW: 0.38 BTL: 0.38 GRR: 0.32 MKG: 0.31 MKE: 0.42 ORD: 0.40 DBQ: 0.33 DVN: 0.13 LAF: 0.16 YYZ: 0.11 BOO YEAH!!! Eat IT Bowme!!! euro stunned me. figured for sure it was going to be down from last nights 0.38" and be more like 0.30" at best So so so sorry.. Even with the lighter QPF runs from before we have always been in a good spot for Solid snows.. Ratios will be killer up here and no the weak ass SE/E winds won't cut down on the dendrite size.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 whats the precip for Madison wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The GFS has done quite well in the consistency department, especially the ensemble mean and has been better than the Euro IMBY. Either way i'm using a split between them for about .35" of liquid for 5" of snow. Yeah the GFS locally for you has been consistent, but it has wavered back and forth as for what would happen for East of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 BOO YEAH!!! Eat IT Bowme!!! After watching that moderate to heavy snow just west of us with the last event dry up and get squashed south like Oprah stepping on a kitten I will never count my snow before it falls again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whoa, the snow graphics from the EURO on weather underground really through a wrench into may thoughts that northeast Iowa would be the jack pot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Both the NMM and ARW peg I-80 for >0.50" of liquid. The NMM much more, the ARW a lot less but still an area showing up. I know the NMM tends to run wet at times, but I thought the ARW ran dry? So I'm anthused now. Of course the Euro is way down there, but I have to hope the mesos have more reliability at this range than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Both the NMM and ARW peg I-80 for >0.50" of liquid. The NMM much more, the ARW a lot less but still an area showing up. I know the NMM tends to run wet at times, but I thought the ARW ran dry? So I'm anthused now. Of course the Euro is way down there, but I have to hope the mesos have more reliability at this range than the globals. I'll start putting a lot more weight on the meso/hi-res runs after 0z tonight...that said this mornings action trended up in QPF right at the last minute, given the zonal flow with such low amplitude ripples, it's possible we'll see a similar uptick but I wouldn't bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z NAM... 12z GFS... both looking similar to the snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Everyones favorite the 18z NAM on its way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just a subtle shift! What the heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Everything def looking better for those that are south of the I80 corridor now. The trend has been south the last couple of days. If we can squeeze at a couple of inches here tomorrow, then we will have our healthiest snow pack of the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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