wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You know it's cold when the January sun feels like a relief. You don't get much colder during the day here than 3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Extreme southern gradient already showing up in Iowa tomorrow morning. Skilling's RPM totally blanks Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, the WAA just above the surface looks like it might be a real problem here. Not liking this one bit, I'd rather have 6 inches of snow. GFS is cooler but I'm not sure if it will verify...been burned with underdone waa before. Bigger question may be how much precip falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You know it's cold when the January sun feels like a relief. You don't get much colder during the day here than 3F. Sure you can, check 18 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Extreme southern gradient already showing up in Iowa tomorrow morning. Skilling's RPM totally blanks Des Moines. some interesting swirly happenings over the lake there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Extreme southern gradient already showing up in Iowa tomorrow morning. Skilling's RPM totally blanks Des Moines. That RPM looks a tad north of many models and what I expected. Unfortunately it is probably moving ESE or SE at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still looking at a solid event for the Detroit area. Bumping my call for general swath N-S of 3-6 inches. As far as a headline? Thinking a high end WWA for 3 tier counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 12z GGEM and UKMET are *slightly* wetter again today, as compared to their 0z runs. GGEM throws about 0.40"-0.50" our way, UKMET 0.30"-0.40". 12z UKIE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 11 am mircocast from Channel 7 news. Not gonna happen but I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 11 am mircocast from Channel 7 news. Not gonna happen but I'd take it. Love that it comes out just as LOT is talking about trimming probs further south. Like i said earlier, i think they add a row or two and changed the whole area to an advisory and then upgrade tomorrow if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Love that it comes out just as LOT is talking about trimming probs further south. Like i said earlier, i think they add a row or two and changed the whole area to an advisory and then upgrade tomorrow if needed. Kankakee is going to be upset Saturday after seeing that. This whole concept of posting microcast accumulations on TV like they do here is foreign to me. In the Philly market they make their own maps with broad ranges. There's way too much risk in showing a mesoscale model verbatim like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Kankakee is going to be upset Saturday after seeing that. This whole concept of posting microcast accumulations on TV like they do here is foreign to me. In the Philly market they make their own maps with broad ranges. There's way too much risk in showing a mesoscale model verbatim like that. I definitely get what you're saying and all local stations do it, including Skilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Any slight nudging north or a better surge of GOM fuel further north into OH will make huge differences for the SeMi area. Sitting really nice for a bump up. It hard to pin point exactly where the heaviest banding will set-up shop. The RUC might help a little but its hard to bank on it. This is one of those cases where any shifts could make you win or lose.. Rating a bump potential at a 7 out of 10 for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 11 am mircocast from Channel 7 news. Not gonna happen but I'd take it. lol. Would be excellent for here, but that model looks like an extreme outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Microcast models are the worst. Also Tracy Butler looks old in that pic. IKK will be fortunate to see 2-3" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 lol. Would be excellent for here, but that model looks like an extreme outlier. quite a few of the mesoscale/hi-res models seem further south than the globals, obviously i'd still put this outside their most useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Kankakee is going to be upset Saturday after seeing that. This whole concept of posting microcast accumulations on TV like they do here is foreign to me. In the Philly market they make their own maps with broad ranges. There's way too much risk in showing a mesoscale model verbatim like that. Doesn't make sense. People don't understand models and their weaknesses/biases/problems. Posting those verbatim is almost guaranteed to be wrong, especially when it comes to snow. I think that could hurt your credibility with the viewer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Microcast models are the worst. Also Tracy Butler looks old in that pic. IKK will be fortunate to see 2-3" IMO. Gonna be heartbreak city for anyone near that nasty gradient. I'd go into it not expecting much, then you can't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 11 am mircocast from Channel 7 news. Not gonna happen but I'd take it. This microcast is a piece of crap if you ask me. Yesterday it was showing 15" in Extreme SW WI and NW IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Let's do some hi-res totals. Don't like one, hug the other. 12z NMM (24 hour total through 12z Sat) 12z ARW (24 hour total through 12z Sat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 still looks all systems go south of here AMT..expect to see EURO nudge south with qpf again.. when cyclone is pessimistic that is never a good thing here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gonna have to make hay up here quick while it snows to hit a high end advisory. looked like it had more potential at one time with good ratios and a more e/w movement instead of ****ting the toilet fast and transfering se. see what tonight brings but running out of time for a weenie solution instead of a is what it is and take anythign you can get this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 early look at possible lake enhancement A wildcard! Nice. Skilling's simulated radar showed lake effect/enhancement clearly for the IL shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro looks a tick north. Well, definitely so in southern/southwestern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12Z Euro an improvement for northern areas... MOP: 0.18 DET: 0.33 PTK: 0.28 DTW: 0.38 BTL: 0.38 GRR: 0.32 MKG: 0.31 MKE: 0.42 ORD: 0.40 DBQ: 0.33 DVN: 0.13 LAF: 0.16 YYZ: 0.11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro looks a tick north. Well, definitely so in southern/southwestern MN. In the end, it's not that different I guess. Actually looks better for here. Maybe the northern edge is just...farther north. Don't mind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro looks a tick north. Well, definitely so in southern/southwestern MN. looks a little better and colder imo for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gonna have to make hay up here quick while it snows to hit a high end advisory. looked like it had more potential at one time with good ratios and a more e/w movement instead of ****ting the toilet fast and transfering se. see what tonight brings but running out of time for a weenie solution instead of a is what it is and take anythign you can get this winter. About half of those GFS ensembles look pretty good for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z ECMWF LSE: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -13.5 -13.8 1024 71 99 0.19 543 525 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -14.3 -13.9 1024 79 75 0.09 544 526 MSN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -13.8 -12.3 1024 71 100 0.13 545 527 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -13.2 -12.1 1023 83 98 0.24 545 528 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -17.2 -12.5 1024 83 32 0.01 547 529 MKE: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.3 -13.4 1024 69 100 0.07 546 527 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -9.4 -12.3 1021 82 98 0.30 546 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.6 -13.2 1022 77 50 0.05 546 530 SBM: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.6 -15.4 1025 64 100 0.05 542 524 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.0 -13.9 1023 82 98 0.16 543 525 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -14.7 -14.1 1023 84 42 0.01 544 526 CID: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.0 -7.2 1021 65 95 0.06 551 535 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.0 -9.1 1021 80 86 0.08 550 534 DVN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.5 -6.7 1021 50 90 0.04 552 536 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.2 -7.4 1020 76 89 0.08 551 535 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -12.7 -7.7 1022 83 42 0.01 551 534 PIA: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.1 -3.5 1018 53 95 0.01 554 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.3 -4.0 1020 72 54 0.02 553 538 RFD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.5 -9.9 1023 68 100 0.09 549 532 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -9.4 -8.6 1021 85 99 0.23 549 533 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -11.9 -9.8 1022 87 48 0.04 549 532 ORD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.6 -9.9 1023 69 100 0.06 550 532 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.4 -7.7 1020 86 99 0.22 549 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.5 -8.5 1020 87 60 0.11 549 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.3 -9.3 1022 78 20 0.01 551 534 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -3.3 -6.5 1024 70 22 0.01 556 537 MDW: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.7 -9.2 1023 68 99 0.04 550 533 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.6 -7.1 1020 83 99 0.17 550 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.7 -7.9 1020 85 65 0.11 550 534 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.6 -8.4 1022 78 18 0.01 552 535 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.0 -5.4 1024 71 21 0.01 556 537 DEC: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.0 -0.9 1018 73 77 0.04 556 541 VPZ: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.2 -8.1 1023 57 100 0.02 551 534 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.5 -5.6 1020 76 100 0.10 551 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.3 -6.9 1020 85 85 0.14 550 535 LAF: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -3.4 -1.3 1018 51 84 0.01 555 541 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.9 -2.3 1018 84 92 0.14 554 540 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.7 -2.8 1021 84 29 0.01 554 538 IND: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.5 1.2 1016 82 97 0.07 556 543 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.1 -0.6 1019 83 44 0.03 556 541 OKK: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.3 -1.5 1019 54 88 0.02 554 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.2 -2.6 1018 86 98 0.18 553 539 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.0 -3.2 1021 86 31 0.02 554 538 FWA: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.8 -3.1 1020 66 100 0.07 552 537 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.9 -4.3 1019 87 98 0.19 552 537 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.2 -4.9 1021 84 29 0.02 552 536 HAO: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -0.9 3.4 1015 89 99 0.10 558 546 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.4 1.0 1017 85 76 0.08 557 543 DAY: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.2 -0.5 1019 50 81 0.01 556 541 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.3 1.6 1016 83 100 0.08 556 543 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.3 -0.7 1018 86 66 0.09 555 541 CMH: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.1 -0.9 1020 53 91 0.01 556 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.1 1.5 1016 82 98 0.06 555 543 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.3 -0.8 1017 88 77 0.14 555 542 TDZ: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.7 -7.2 1022 72 100 0.11 551 533 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.1 -5.7 1019 89 99 0.25 550 535 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.4 -7.6 1021 85 28 0.05 551 535 CLE: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.8 -8.1 1023 64 100 0.04 551 533 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.1 -4.9 1019 87 99 0.24 550 535 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -4.1 -6.2 1019 85 57 0.13 550 536 MKG: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.4 -15.5 1024 66 100 0.02 544 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.9 -12.9 1022 83 99 0.24 545 528 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -10.6 -12.1 1022 84 67 0.05 545 528 GRR: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.5 -13.0 1024 55 100 0.01 545 527 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.9 -11.5 1022 85 100 0.21 546 528 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -12.5 -11.0 1022 89 84 0.10 545 529 BTL: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.5 -8.9 1022 80 100 0.22 548 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.2 -8.7 1021 88 96 0.16 547 531 ADG: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.4 -7.9 1022 77 99 0.15 549 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.0 -6.7 1020 89 98 0.25 548 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -11.3 -7.8 1022 83 18 0.02 550 533 DTW: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.7 -10.0 1023 76 99 0.12 548 530 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.2 -7.7 1021 88 99 0.24 547 531 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -12.3 -9.1 1022 84 18 0.02 548 532 PHN: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.6 -12.6 1025 82 99 0.07 545 526 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -10.3 -10.8 1022 85 99 0.15 545 528 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -11.5 -11.1 1022 82 20 0.01 546 529 YKF: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.7 -14.5 1025 63 100 0.01 542 523 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.8 -12.9 1022 80 100 0.09 542 526 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -12.6 -12.7 1021 79 47 0.02 543 527 YYZ: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.6 -13.6 1022 73 100 0.08 541 524 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.5 -13.2 1021 75 66 0.03 542 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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