snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 early guess is the NAM could be flipping back north/wet/warm. EDIT: def a bit stronger than 6z. thermals look about the same. QPF placement is further north though in comparison to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 thermals look about the same. QPF placement is further north though in comparison to 6z. pretty good run here, actually a tad cooler than 6z at least at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 To me the main difference in the NAM is that it is starting to orientate the band more WNW to ESE rather than More E to W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM looks quicker...when comparing to the 0z run. Real nice for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM looks to be coming significantly north of its 6z run. Today will be the 12th measurable snow day of the season at DTW, mostly nuisance snows that will, after today, likely have amounted to 10+ inches....but it ends tomorrow night. Snow advisory for metro-Detroit. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 early guess is the NAM could be flipping back north/wet/warm. EDIT: def a bit stronger than 6z, also a tad cooler at 850 despite being stronger Ya its back north a tad from its 6z run crushing along/north of 88. Easy to see its a bit stronger with the 850mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 pretty good run here, actually a tad cooler than 6z at least at 850. Sfc features actually looked a tad weaker in comparison to 0z/6z runs. Don't think there's been a fundamental change at 12z. Just a noise level adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sfc features actually looked a tad weaker in comparison to 0z/6z runs. Don't think there's been a fundamental change at 12z. Just a noise level adjustment. agree and it falls within what the more consistent GFS/Euro have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM went from less than .1 here in the 6z run to between .3-.4 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, not ideal for YYZ, but anything beats the horror that was the 6z NAM. This'll at least keep me around for the rest of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z NAM continues to show a fairly significant band of icing across portions of Indiana & Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I knew it was a good idea to not get excited over here. The models appear to be lifting the west end of the band back north, to the detriment of many in Iowa.. As cyclone said, the 00z Euro not budging was a red flag for us on the sw edge. I've gone from 0.5" back down to 0.2" on the NAM. The Euro has never really had more than 0.2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I knew it was a good idea to not get excited over here. The models appear to be lifting the west end of the band back north, to the detriment of many in Iowa.. As cyclone said, the 00z Euro not budging was a red flag for us on the sw edge. I've gone from 0.5" back down to 0.2" on the NAM. The Euro has never really had more than 0.2" here. That is one of the trends that I have been noticing as well more of a WNW to ESE oreintated band in Iowa and Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I forsee LOT either adding a row of counties (to the south) to the warning or lumping them in with an advisory that will likely be added for the souther half of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The SREF site has some pretty cool winter weather graphics. It is indicating ratios of 25:1 on the northern flank of heaviest snow band, but in Iowa and Illinois it is not nearly as excited about ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I forsee LOT either adding a row of counties (to the south) to the warning or lumping them in with an advisory that will likely be added for the souther half of LOT Not sure if an advisory will be need for the entire southern half, might just add a row and convert the whole thing to a WWA, warning criteria looks isolated and winds a non-factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The SREF site has some pretty cool winter weather graphics. It is indicating ratios of 25:1 on the northern flank of heaviest snow band, but in Iowa and Illinois it is not nearly as excited about ratios. The SREF spread is still pretty large with quite a few rather north/warm and still shows mean ratios around 13-15:1 for far northern Illinois, it's not all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Who are you tell what people can say? First: He was on topic Second: wasn't complaining Third: Probably wasn't here for that conversation lol it's not that big of a deal. Still sticking with the heaviest snows north of Detroit? thats what baffled me and as well him - models showing good consensus qpf for us and their rpm backs off....and 11 is calling for 3-6 which is very aggressive for them... Yeah, that really is strange, nothing, I mean nothing suggests that low of any amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is a mixed bag for LAF...about 0.17" of it. Needless to say, gone are the 6C temps at 900 from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Not sure if an advisory will be need for the entire southern half, might just add a row and convert the whole thing to a WWA, warning criteria looks isolated and winds a non-factor. yeah, we'll see...all semantics i suppose...either way, better than a month ago . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is a mixed bag for LAF...about 0.17" of it. Needless to say, gone are the 6C temps at 900 from yesterday. glad to see the mega torch never caught on outside those two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah, we'll see...all semantics i suppose...either way, better than a month ago . . . true, most of the area should see a few inches, heaviest around evening rush and surface/ground temps should be pretty cold allowing easy accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can envision quite the spread across LOT's CWA. Like from little to nothing for Iroquois County to 2" at IKK to 6"+ for RFD-ORD-UGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 lol it's not that big of a deal. Still sticking with the heaviest snows north of Detroit? Yeah, that really is strange, nothing, I mean nothing suggests that low of any amounts lol. Nope I guess I have shift that 5" band from 696 to about Monroe. Im really intrigued on whats going on now. Very Intense snow in Oakland cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 My guess is La Crosse may go warning over Northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Most likely advisories for southern minnesota and western wiscosin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 izzi multi media briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 izzi multi media briefing worth checking out or more or less what we've been rehashing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 worth checking out or more or less what we've been rehashing here? a couple little nuggets....but pretty much just over-all informative... well put together though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS might slide a little south with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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