Jan 20th snow event

[Chicago Storm]

LOT...obviously it will change...

[Chargers09]

Figures the nam and the gfs would flip flop. Can anyone post the ggem and ukie when they update map-wise?

[Thunder Road]

The UKMET and GGEM are drier this go around, although I think we were all expecting that anyway.

The UK took a pretty big step down tonight, with just 0.30" for most area along and north of I-80.

(note every 5mm is roughly 0.20")

[Hoosier]

Still early in the run but it looks to me like the Euro may try to nudge south.

[Hoosier]

The combination of the significant southern gradient and the very low Euro QPF has me on the pessimistic side of things at this point lol.  My early guess was 1-3", but even that would be high if the 12z Euro verifies.  So far the 00z guidance has been nice, so at least we're still in the game.  

00z Euro gets you into the .25+ range

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF

LSE:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.3   -12.7    1023	  64	 100    0.09	 544	 526   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.2   -12.1    1022	  81	  88    0.14	 545	 528

MSN:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -13.0   -11.6    1024	  66	 100    0.08	 546	 528   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.2   -10.1    1022	  84	  99    0.24	 547	 530   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN -11.6   -10.5    1021	  86	  80    0.04	 547	 530

MKE:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.8   -12.3    1024	  55	 100    0.03	 546	 528   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.8   -11.1    1021	  84	  99    0.24	 547	 531   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.7   -10.5    1019	  83	  93    0.09	 547	 532   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -7.0   -10.8    1020	  79	  48    0.01	 548	 533   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.9    -7.3    1022	  70	  35    0.01	 552	 535

SBM:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -11.5   -14.4    1024	  49	  99    0.01	 543	 525   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.5   -12.6    1023	  80	 100    0.12	 544	 527   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.7   -12.7    1021	  80	  80    0.03	 544	 528

CID:

 
FRI 12Z 20-JAN -12.7    -8.7    1023	  53	 100    0.01	 551	 533   
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.1    -6.8    1020	  70	  95    0.09	 552	 536   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -9.4    -6.3    1019	  82	  95    0.06	 551	 536   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.6    -6.9    1020	  84	  66    0.01	 550	 535

DVN:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -8.7    -6.0    1021	  55	  80    0.06	 552	 536   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.4    -5.2    1019	  76	 100    0.06	 552	 538   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.3    -5.9    1019	  83	  82    0.04	 551	 536

PIA:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.0    -1.9    1017	  76	  92    0.07	 553	 540   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.1    -2.9    1018	  77	  40    0.01	 553	 539

RFD:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.7    -8.9    1023	  68	 100    0.10	 550	 532   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.7    -7.1    1020	  86	 100    0.22	 550	 534   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.1    -7.6    1019	  90	  95    0.09	 549	 535

ORD:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -7.0    -9.1    1023	  69	  99    0.06	 550	 532   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.7    -6.6    1020	  84	 100    0.19	 551	 535   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.0    -6.8    1018	  89	  99    0.17	 550	 536   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.1    -6.2    1019	  82	  54    0.02	 550	 536   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.1    -4.8    1021	  75	  28    0.01	 554	 538

MDW:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.7    -8.5    1023	  65	  99    0.06	 551	 533   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.6    -6.1    1020	  76	  97    0.14	 551	 536   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.2    -6.1    1018	  86	  99    0.19	 550	 536   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.1    -5.7    1018	  83	  55    0.02	 551	 536   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.1    -4.6    1021	  76	  27    0.01	 554	 538

DEC:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -2.4	 1.8    1015	  69	  83    0.03	 556	 545   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.1    -0.8    1017	  78	  57    0.02	 555	 542

VPZ:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.8    -7.9    1023	  54	 100    0.03	 552	 534   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.6    -5.1    1020	  70	  94    0.09	 552	 537   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.5    -4.8    1018	  85	 100    0.20	 551	 537   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.5    -5.2    1018	  87	  65    0.05	 551	 537

LAF:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.6	 0.6    1015	  75	  98    0.04	 555	 543   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.6    -1.4    1016	  83	  76    0.06	 554	 541

IND:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.6	 3.9    1014	  87	  96    0.08	 557	 546   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.8	 1.1    1015	  86	  80    0.06	 556	 544

OKK:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -5.5    -5.4    1023	  43	  99    0.01	 555	 537   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.4    -1.3    1019	  54	  83    0.02	 555	 540   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.0	 0.3    1016	  77	  99    0.05	 555	 542   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.7    -1.8    1016	  86	  82    0.11	 554	 541

FWA:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.2    -3.3    1021	  67	  98    0.09	 554	 538   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6    -1.5    1017	  86	  97    0.11	 553	 540   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.5    -3.1    1017	  90	  85    0.16	 553	 540

HAO:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -0.2	 6.2    1013	  86	  91    0.06	 559	 548   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -0.7	 4.3    1012	  92	  85    0.27	 557	 548

DAY:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.5    -0.4    1020	  51	  81    0.01	 557	 542   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.8	 2.7    1015	  79	  97    0.06	 557	 546   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.4	 2.6    1014	  90	  88    0.18	 556	 545   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -0.4	 0.9    1016	  82	  54    0.04	 556	 543

CMH:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.0    -1.7    1021	  48	  97    0.02	 557	 540   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.8	 2.2    1016	  74	  95    0.05	 557	 545   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -1.7	 3.1    1013	  92	  96    0.16	 556	 546   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   0.6	 1.6    1015	  81	  67    0.02	 556	 544

TDZ:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.9    -7.1    1023	  70	 100    0.08	 552	 534   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.0    -4.5    1019	  87	 100    0.22	 551	 537   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -3.9    -4.3    1017	  90	  89    0.20	 551	 538   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.8    -3.2    1019	  82	  40    0.01	 553	 538

CLE:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.1    -7.8    1024	  63	  99    0.02	 552	 533   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.9    -3.7    1019	  86	 100    0.20	 552	 537   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.0    -3.5    1016	  90	  98    0.26	 552	 539   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -1.2    -2.1    1017	  82	  54    0.03	 553	 539

MKG:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.8   -15.1    1024	  63	  95    0.01	 545	 526   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.2   -11.6    1022	  82	  99    0.15	 546	 529   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.1    -9.5    1021	  84	  95    0.11	 546	 530

GRR:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.1   -10.7    1023	  77	 100    0.13	 547	 530   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.5    -8.5    1020	  86	  97    0.14	 547	 531   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -11.5    -8.5    1021	  87	  56    0.01	 548	 532

BTL:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.0    -8.6    1022	  74	 100    0.14	 549	 532   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.0    -6.5    1020	  87	  98    0.19	 549	 533   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.1    -7.0    1019	  87	  67    0.05	 549	 534

ADG:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.4    -7.9    1023	  73	  99    0.10	 551	 533   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.3    -4.8    1019	  88	 100    0.23	 550	 535   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.3    -5.8    1018	  87	  83    0.13	 550	 536

DTW:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.7    -9.7    1024	  72	  99    0.06	 549	 530   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.4    -5.8    1020	  88	 100    0.22	 549	 533   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.2    -6.7    1019	  87	  84    0.11	 549	 535

PHN:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.7   -12.1    1025	  78	 100    0.02	 546	 527   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN -10.2    -9.2    1022	  86	 100    0.13	 546	 530   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.2    -8.6    1019	  85	  76    0.04	 547	 532

YKF:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.1   -12.2    1023	  77	 100    0.05	 544	 526   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -9.6   -10.2    1020	  87	  87    0.05	 545	 529

YYZ:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.8   -13.4    1023	  68	 100    0.03	 543	 525   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.9   -11.3    1020	  80	  91    0.06	 544	 528   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -2.8    -8.6    1020	  71	  35    0.01	 546	 531

[Thunder Road]

Since the hi-res runs are out, I want to take a look at their handling of speed and the southern cut-off:

These are all 24-hour precip ending at hour 48, 0z Sat.

NMM:

ARW:

NAM:

GFS:

Who looks like the odd man out here? In terms of how far east the 0.25" shading gets, obviously the GFS. In terms of southern cut-off, perhaps the ARW, although it's not as clear cut as with the speed of the system.

What's worrying (mainly for LAF, but even for the VPZ-FWA corridor) is the ARW, since that is somewhat like the hi-res version of the GFS, and it shows a much sharper southern cut-off. What's encouraging is the NMM, which is wetter than even the NAM in northwest Iowa, and has a pretty decent southern extent to the precip.

Hi-res mesoscale models like these will be the ones to watch, especially with the 12z suite tomorrow.

[Ajdos]

0z ECMWF

LSE:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.3   -12.7	1023	  64	 100	0.09	 544	 526  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.2   -12.1	1022	  81	  88	0.14	 545	 528

MSN:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN -13.0   -11.6	1024	  66	 100	0.08	 546	 528  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.2   -10.1	1022	  84	  99	0.24	 547	 530  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN -11.6   -10.5	1021	  86	  80	0.04	 547	 530

MKE:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.8   -12.3	1024	  55	 100	0.03	 546	 528  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.8   -11.1	1021	  84	  99	0.24	 547	 531  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.7   -10.5	1019	  83	  93	0.09	 547	 532  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -7.0   -10.8	1020	  79	  48	0.01	 548	 533  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.9	-7.3	1022	  70	  35	0.01	 552	 535

SBM:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN -11.5   -14.4	1024	  49	  99	0.01	 543	 525  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.5   -12.6	1023	  80	 100	0.12	 544	 527  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.7   -12.7	1021	  80	  80	0.03	 544	 528

CID:

FRI 12Z 20-JAN -12.7	-8.7	1023	  53	 100	0.01	 551	 533  
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.1	-6.8	1020	  70	  95	0.09	 552	 536  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -9.4	-6.3	1019	  82	  95	0.06	 551	 536  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.6	-6.9	1020	  84	  66	0.01	 550	 535

DVN:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -8.7	-6.0	1021	  55	  80	0.06	 552	 536  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.4	-5.2	1019	  76	 100	0.06	 552	 538  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.3	-5.9	1019	  83	  82	0.04	 551	 536

PIA:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.0	-1.9	1017	  76	  92	0.07	 553	 540  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.1	-2.9	1018	  77	  40	0.01	 553	 539

RFD:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.7	-8.9	1023	  68	 100	0.10	 550	 532  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.7	-7.1	1020	  86	 100	0.22	 550	 534  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.1	-7.6	1019	  90	  95	0.09	 549	 535

ORD:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -7.0	-9.1	1023	  69	  99	0.06	 550	 532  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.7	-6.6	1020	  84	 100	0.19	 551	 535  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.0	-6.8	1018	  89	  99	0.17	 550	 536  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.1	-6.2	1019	  82	  54	0.02	 550	 536  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.1	-4.8	1021	  75	  28	0.01	 554	 538

MDW:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.7	-8.5	1023	  65	  99	0.06	 551	 533  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.6	-6.1	1020	  76	  97	0.14	 551	 536  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.2	-6.1	1018	  86	  99	0.19	 550	 536  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.1	-5.7	1018	  83	  55	0.02	 551	 536  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.1	-4.6	1021	  76	  27	0.01	 554	 538

DEC:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -2.4	 1.8	1015	  69	  83	0.03	 556	 545  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.1	-0.8	1017	  78	  57	0.02	 555	 542

VPZ:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.8	-7.9	1023	  54	 100	0.03	 552	 534  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.6	-5.1	1020	  70	  94	0.09	 552	 537  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.5	-4.8	1018	  85	 100	0.20	 551	 537  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.5	-5.2	1018	  87	  65	0.05	 551	 537

LAF:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.6	 0.6	1015	  75	  98	0.04	 555	 543  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.6	-1.4	1016	  83	  76	0.06	 554	 541

IND:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.6	 3.9	1014	  87	  96	0.08	 557	 546  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.8	 1.1	1015	  86	  80	0.06	 556	 544

OKK:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -5.5	-5.4	1023	  43	  99	0.01	 555	 537  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.4	-1.3	1019	  54	  83	0.02	 555	 540  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.0	 0.3	1016	  77	  99	0.05	 555	 542  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.7	-1.8	1016	  86	  82	0.11	 554	 541

FWA:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.2	-3.3	1021	  67	  98	0.09	 554	 538  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6	-1.5	1017	  86	  97	0.11	 553	 540  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.5	-3.1	1017	  90	  85	0.16	 553	 540

HAO:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -0.2	 6.2	1013	  86	  91	0.06	 559	 548  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -0.7	 4.3	1012	  92	  85	0.27	 557	 548

DAY:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.5	-0.4	1020	  51	  81	0.01	 557	 542  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.8	 2.7	1015	  79	  97	0.06	 557	 546  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.4	 2.6	1014	  90	  88	0.18	 556	 545  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -0.4	 0.9	1016	  82	  54	0.04	 556	 543

CMH:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.0	-1.7	1021	  48	  97	0.02	 557	 540  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.8	 2.2	1016	  74	  95	0.05	 557	 545  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -1.7	 3.1	1013	  92	  96	0.16	 556	 546  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   0.6	 1.6	1015	  81	  67	0.02	 556	 544

TDZ:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.9	-7.1	1023	  70	 100	0.08	 552	 534  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.0	-4.5	1019	  87	 100	0.22	 551	 537  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -3.9	-4.3	1017	  90	  89	0.20	 551	 538  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.8	-3.2	1019	  82	  40	0.01	 553	 538

CLE:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.1	-7.8	1024	  63	  99	0.02	 552	 533  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.9	-3.7	1019	  86	 100	0.20	 552	 537  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.0	-3.5	1016	  90	  98	0.26	 552	 539  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -1.2	-2.1	1017	  82	  54	0.03	 553	 539

MKG:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.8   -15.1	1024	  63	  95	0.01	 545	 526  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.2   -11.6	1022	  82	  99	0.15	 546	 529  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.1	-9.5	1021	  84	  95	0.11	 546	 530

GRR:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.1   -10.7	1023	  77	 100	0.13	 547	 530  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.5	-8.5	1020	  86	  97	0.14	 547	 531  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -11.5	-8.5	1021	  87	  56	0.01	 548	 532

BTL:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.0	-8.6	1022	  74	 100	0.14	 549	 532  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.0	-6.5	1020	  87	  98	0.19	 549	 533  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.1	-7.0	1019	  87	  67	0.05	 549	 534

ADG:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.4	-7.9	1023	  73	  99	0.10	 551	 533  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.3	-4.8	1019	  88	 100	0.23	 550	 535  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.3	-5.8	1018	  87	  83	0.13	 550	 536

DTW:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.7	-9.7	1024	  72	  99	0.06	 549	 530  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.4	-5.8	1020	  88	 100	0.22	 549	 533  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.2	-6.7	1019	  87	  84	0.11	 549	 535

PHN:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.7   -12.1	1025	  78	 100	0.02	 546	 527  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN -10.2	-9.2	1022	  86	 100	0.13	 546	 530  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.2	-8.6	1019	  85	  76	0.04	 547	 532

YKF:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.1   -12.2	1023	  77	 100	0.05	 544	 526  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -9.6   -10.2	1020	  87	  87	0.05	 545	 529

YYZ:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.8   -13.4	1023	  68	 100	0.03	 543	 525  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.9   -11.3	1020	  80	  91	0.06	 544	 528  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -2.8	-8.6	1020	  71	  35	0.01	 546	 531

Can you post TOL?? Thanks!

[cyclone77]

00z Euro gets you into the .25+ range

Wow, very tight southern gradient. Chicago Storm's spoiler has DVN at just 0.16". Too close for comfort.

[Thunder Road]

Great model consensus of around 0.40" for Chicagoland, from the GFS, GGEM and EURO. UKMET and the NAM are extremes, but only by 0.10"-0.20". Much better than where we were 6 hours ago anyway.

I'll take a nice 4"-6" event, and hope against hope for a 7" or 8: lollipop.

[Hoosier]

Wow, very tight southern gradient.  Chicago Storm's spoiler has DVN at just 0.16".  Too close for comfort.

It slopes ESE...it could be more like .2-.25 since a small amount is the current system.

[Chicago Storm]

Can you post TOL?? Thanks!

just this once... use TDZ in the future.

TOL

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.3    -7.0    1023	  70	 100    0.09	 552	 534   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6    -4.5    1019	  88	 100    0.22	 551	 536   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.7    -4.8    1017	  89	  87    0.18	 551	 538

[Thundersnow12]

0z Euro throws out .39" and DPA and .45" at ORD. Time to watch the new episode of Justified, and wait for the 6z NAM? lol

[cmichweather]

0z Euro throws out .39" and DPA and .45" at ORD. Time to watch the new episode of Justified, and wait for the 6z NAM? lol

Lol I've been there...... and then just sneak a peak at the 6z gfs and all of a sudden its 4am.

[Ajdos]

just this once... use TDZ in the future.

TOL

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.3	-7.0	1023	  70	 100	0.09	 552	 534  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6	-4.5	1019	  88	 100	0.22	 551	 536  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.7	-4.8	1017	  89	  87	0.18	 551	 538

Dankeschön

[Stebo]

I am thinking that 3-5" initial call for the Metro Detroit area looks to be pretty good right now, Chicagoland probably 5-7" looks good maybe localized higher amounts for both locations.

[Harry]

Lets see.. No blocking what so ever, modeling tending to always keep these types of systems moving further ese then they end up doing and thus they turn a little quicker east/ene especially when there is lack of blocking vs what models showed.. Thus i'll assume that the GFS was hitting the pipe.

Also as of 06z/2am the GFS had a bit lower heights then what we have in the eastern part of the country. GFS also off with the current clipper in N.Lakes by about 75+ miles already. 850s 0 line was supposed to be reaching KC. Not the biggest deal to some ( Here/Chicago ) i suppose but others yeah especially further east. Pretty reasonable to assume tomorrows runs should come back north/ene a bit.

[Justin]

^{Well based on blending of all the new model data I'd say the I-80 corridor around here is probably looking at 3-4" at most. Between highway 30 and 20 across Iowa and Illinois should be in the 4-6" range. Not as big of a snow as it looked just 6+ hours ago. Models have definitely trended away from a bigger snow, kinda disappointing but it is what it is. That Southern cutoff to the snow band is still looking extreme too. Looks like one of those situations we'll go from no snow to 3-4" in a matter of 40miles.}

[cyclone77]

^{Well based on blending of all the new model data I'd say the I-80 corridor around here is probably looking at 3-4" at most. Between highway 30 and 20 across Iowa and Illinois should be in the 4-6" range. Not as big of a snow as it looked just 6+ hours ago. Models have definitely trended away from a bigger snow, kinda disappointing but it is what it is. That Southern cutoff to the snow band is still looking extreme too. Looks like one of those situations we'll go from no snow to 3-4" in a matter of 40miles.}

These high gradient southern cutoff clippers are always interesting/frustrating to forecast. The way this season is going settling for a 3-4" snow seems fairly victorious to me lol. The new Euro was a bit better than the 12z, but it wasn't enough to keep me from being more pessimistic with a general 1-3" call for the QCA.

[Justin]

Yeah cyclone, this is going to be a tough call for the NWS south of 80, I'll be interested to see how tightly they cluster the zones across the area. I'm thinking they'll still put the metro area in a 3-5" call but that might be a hair optimistic....we'll see. Should only be a WWA for this event. I'm with you on settling for less considering with how the Winter has gone. I have a gut feeling we're going to see a whopper of a storm sometime late this month or Early February ala 2011. Just get the feeling something good is gonna happen around these parts in the not to distant future.

[Ajdos]

So, nam on board with the shift south... Oh well..Maybe gfs will come back north now? lol

[PatrickSumner]

The NAM is on crack. 0.75 QPF for places like LAF and OKK. Also way to warm, so even if it did come to fruition, it wouldn't be all snow. That's for sure. Never seen so much model disagreement this close to a storm...

[Harry]

So, nam on board with the shift south... Oh well..Maybe gfs will come back north now? lol

Figures that would happen rght after i posted what i did above.. lol

[Ajdos]

Figures that would happen rght after i posted what i did above.. lol

Eh, even if we get a good 3-4" of snowfall it should melt away quickly..the next ridge and rain storm is on the way.. YEYY..

[Ajdos]

One thing is for sure, temps looks really cold, ratios are going to be really high.. mid teens for my area Friday night.

[Ajdos]

Interesting from GRR:

YNOPTIC SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY

AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE

TN AND LWR OH VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN PARTIALLY BY MID

LEVEL FGEN WELL NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH

SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTN THRU

FRIDAY EVE... WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY NEAR TO

PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-96. COULD SEE TOTALS REACH 8 INCHES

FURTHEST SOUTH ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR.

[Harry]

Eh, even if we get a good 3-4" of snowfall it should melt away quickly..the next ridge and rain storm is on the way.. YEYY..

GFS Looks like it has come back north some.

BTW.. 06z NAM is/was to strong with the high in the Plains and too far south with it. NAM showed 1028mb high..

NAM

vs Reality

[Powerball]

In the event we do only manage to get yet another non-advisory nuisance snow event, at least we'll be in good company with Toronto (or the highway 401 corridor) and won't be alone in our misery.

The key will be how much confluence today's system leaves behind. The models have also been a little too weak with it. Its confluence will certainly help to keep the heights flatter and thus force the storm to take a faster/ESE track.

Two things we do have on our side however is the fact that the system isn't onshore yet, and the storms this season have had the tendency to trend back more or less to their original solutions after a couple rogue runs.

[snowstormcanuck]

In the event we do only manage to get yet another non-advisory nuisance snow event, at least we'll be in good company with Toronto (or the highway 401 corridor) and won't be alone in our misery.

The key will be how much confluence today's system leaves behind. The models have also been a little too weak with it. Its confluence will certainly help to keep the heights flatter and thus force the storm to take a faster/ESE track.

Two things we do have on our side however is the fact that the system isn't onshore yet, and the storms this season have had the tendency to trend back more or less to their original solutions after a couple rogue runs.

No comparison. You'll at least get 1-3" worst case scenario. There's a growing chance we'll get shutout completely.

[A-L-E-K]

Worth noting that we still won't really get this properly sampled until this evening, I think that the disturbance being relatively weak as far as 500mb fort and jet goes is making it hard for the models to really key in on, leading to these little swings either way with each run. Shifts back north, south, wetter or drier wouldn't be a shock...what remains consistent is that my original early call of 5" IMBY is looking spot on.

Edit: thermals have improved, not great but not cement

Will readdress my call this evening, including the LE issues i had previously deffered