buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still on the lowest side of guidance in regards to precipitation, but it would be a high-end advisory snow for most east of IL haven't checked soundings but at first glance the gfs looks like a warning criteria event for cmh... meanwhile the nam is light rain and drizzle from start to finish. Amazing differences less than 48hrs out. Normally i'd ride the nam, but when the gfs refuses to budge this close, you have to give it at least some cred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whoa where'd this come from! 4-6" for Toledo as of now it looks like. However as everyone's mentioning it's a tight gradient and that always makes for an interesting storm to forecast. With the amount of cold air associated with this cutter though I think there's a better chance of this storm moving south more on future model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whoa where'd this come from! 4-6" for Toledo as of now it looks like. However as everyone's mentioning it's a tight gradient and that always makes for an interesting storm to forecast. With the amount of cold air associated with this cutter though I think there's a better chance of this storm moving south more on future model runs Where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still on the lowest side of guidance in regards to precipitation, but it would be a high-end advisory snow for most east of IL The differences for us in Ohio are remarkable between the NAM and GFS for under 48 hours out. Just look at the timing too. At least we have the euro in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looking real good for NE IL on the GFS. Like stated before though..the system blows it wad after hitting ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 There isn't much difference. I think this will have issues to the end of the run. These setups aren't easily handled. I remember one in February 2008 that at the last sec, made a big northern push and columbus got rain lol LOL. Well, for us here in Northern Indiana, small differences are big. I am in Marion and this run looks a lot better than the 12Z for me, although we may still have some mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The differences for us in Ohio are remarkable between the NAM and GFS for under 48 hours out. Just look at the timing too. At least we have the euro in our favor. yep, for folks further north and west it's pretty much a question of how much. For us it's how much and what. Our juice is coming up from the south, not really a part of the precip that will be affecting chicago and those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 haven't checked soundings but at first glance the gfs looks like a warning criteria event for cmh... meanwhile the nam is light rain and drizzle from start to finish. Amazing differences less than 48hrs out. Normally i'd ride the nam, but when the gfs refuses to budge this close, you have to give it at least some cred. GFS at hr 54: NAM at 54: Just a tad different, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Don't forget that this wave is still offshore. 12z might be pushing it but tomorrow's 00z runs should really lock this down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 There isn't much difference. I think this will have issues to the end of the run. These setups aren't easily handled. I remember one in February 2008 that at the last sec, made a big northern push and columbus got rain lol you say that as though it's a rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where have you been? Ehh I've been busy with school and work lately and just haven't had much time to forecast. I haven't been checking daily this winter in all honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I would take the GFS/NAM blend right now. NAM usually overdoes WAA, GFS underdone. Probably a good bet. Some sort of slop to rain event along i-70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, I remember those columbus screw jobs quite well as I lived their since childbirth before moving in the spring of 2008. Generally on the edge, then that last push ko's us. That is what made March 2008 storm such a great parting gift. We were literally groundzero. I'll tell you what though, except for last year and the donut hole block from hell, the years before that I-70 has been a nice surprise bullseye for quite a few clipper events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Caplans microcast came down some with the newest run but still 6-10" area wide around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM much more realistic this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll tell you what though, except for last year and the donut hole block from hell, the years before that I-70 has been a nice surprise bullseye for quite a few clipper events. More of a lake cutter than a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 More of a lake cutter than a clipper i wasn't referring to any particular event....just a general ob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For what it's worth, JB is apparently saying that the Chicago region could potentially get 6". Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 UKMET looks cold...maybe all snow to within ~50 miles of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM much more realistic this run. a bit south and weaker than 12z. Wrt Ohio, looks like a rt 30 special. Area between i80 and i70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM much more realistic this run. Better than GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Better than GFS? Not really, it's just cut down on the precip in IL/IN/OH where it had upwards of 3/4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 kind of been ignoring tomorrow, but even it looks a bit snowier, maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Our local respected guy went 5-9" basically area wide N of I-80... think he's a touch high on the high end amounts. Dynamics look good, just enough moisture, and overall good atmospheric set up should give most N of I80 a good 4-7" but still room for this to wobble N or S so not getting real excited yet. I do feel the S end of the snow band will tail off rapidly as some guidance is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Anybody have a snow map for the 00Z GFS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Our local respected guy went 5-9" basically area wide N of I-80... think he's a touch high on the high end amounts. Dynamics look good, just enough moisture, and overall good atmospheric set up should give most N of I80 a good 4-7" but still room for this to wobble N or S so not getting real excited yet. I do feel the S end of the snow band will tail off rapidly as some guidance is suggesting. The combination of the significant southern gradient and the very low Euro QPF has me on the pessimistic side of things at this point lol. My early guess was 1-3", but even that would be high if the 12z Euro verifies. So far the 00z guidance has been nice, so at least we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Personally, I prefer the GFS over the NAM because of the more southern extent with the QPF. This gives OKK and LAF a little bit of love. The GFS has a lower grid resolution, so it tends to over-smooth cutoffs. Stick with the NAM, NMM, HRW and such and watch where it pegs that cutoff. My gut instinct is you end up on the unhappy side, but let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Anybody have a snow map for the 00Z GFS??? sorry cut off the amounts...i'm sure you can figure it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll tell you what though, except for last year and the donut hole block from hell, the years before that I-70 has been a nice surprise bullseye for quite a few clipper events. I made your sig my desktop. Hope ya don't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I made your sig my desktop. Hope ya don't mind. flattered, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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