Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 New RPM with a sharp shouthern gradient. 6-8" along and north of 88 to around 2" down by LaSalle/Peru area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 New short AFD, MKX. 000 FXUS63 KMKX 190302 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 902 PM CST WED JAN 18 2012 .UPDATE... WILL FOLLOW TRENDS IN THE HRRR 4 KM RUN THAT TAKES THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST 00Z HRR NOW REACHES MADISON AT MIDNIGHT AND MILWAUKEE BY 3 AM. THIS MAY BE AN HOUR FAST...BUT WE COULD GET A CONVECTIVE BURST WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z NAM SHIFTS THE MAX PRECIP AREA JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE 0.75 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS LAFAYETTE COUNTY WITH 0.38 INCHES FOR MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. LOOK LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THE GFS THAT HAS HAD A LITTLE LESS QPF THAN THE NAM TRENDS TOWARD THE NAM...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 1.5" per BUFKIT for Friday night. Very narrow DGZ with minimal vvs. LSRs are about 12:1. It does show moderate lake induced instability but with the usual problems that plague E wind LES. Inversion height at about 3K feet and a ton of wind shear. It would probably be enough to set up some multibands. Maybe add on an additional 1-2" locally. Really, are you serious? I guess 2-3" isnt bad at this point, lets hope the models trend a bit wetter and perhaps show more LES entrancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Want to make it a bet? Under 5 you win, over 5 I win for $5? If not, let me know on yahoo. loser has to change their avatar to the winners choice for 2 weeks? 902 PM CST WED JAN 18 2012 UPDATE WILL FOLLOW TRENDS IN THE HRRR 4 KM RUN THAT TAKES THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST 00Z HRR NOW REACHES MADISON AT MIDNIGHT AND MILWAUKEE BY 3 AM. THIS MAY BE AN HOUR FAST...BUT WE COULD GET A CONVECTIVE BURST WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z NAM SHIFTS THE MAX PRECIP AREA JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE 0.75 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS LAFAYETTE COUNTY WITH 0.38 INCHES FOR MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. LOOK LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THE GFS THAT HAS HAD A LITTLE LESS QPF THAN THE NAM TRENDS TOWARD THE NAM...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 New RPM with a sharp shouthern gradient. 6-8" along and north of 88 to around 2" down by LaSalle/Peru area. There's that heart breaker gradient showing up again...sounds like it bumped amounts a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thinking the Dee Town area gets a high end advisory out of this one. Everything in line for the first plow of the season for the landscape weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 loser has to change their avatar to the winners choice for 2 weeks? 902 PM CST WED JAN 18 2012 UPDATE WILL FOLLOW TRENDS IN THE HRRR 4 KM RUN THAT TAKES THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST 00Z HRR NOW REACHES MADISON AT MIDNIGHT AND MILWAUKEE BY 3 AM. THIS MAY BE AN HOUR FAST...BUT WE COULD GET A CONVECTIVE BURST WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z NAM SHIFTS THE MAX PRECIP AREA JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE 0.75 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS LAFAYETTE COUNTY WITH 0.38 INCHES FOR MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. LOOK LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THE GFS THAT HAS HAD A LITTLE LESS QPF THAN THE NAM TRENDS TOWARD THE NAM...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH. Sure, I know you are running short on loot...j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Really, are you serious? I guess 2-3" isnt bad at this point, lets hope the models trend a bit wetter and perhaps show more LES entrancement. The thing with LES, especially shallow stuff like this, is that the models usually don't pick up on it. Check out King City radar right now. Those SHSN blowing into eastern Durham/Northumberland county right now at no time showed up on the NAM. That being said, usually the "bigger" LES events do show up, even on comparatively lo-res models. So the fact that NAM's not picking up on it may be a sign that we probably shouldn't count on more than 1-2" additional. I'd wait until this gets into the range of the 12km WRF before coming to any conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sure, I know you are running short on loot...j/k. we can do 5 dollars - I'm sure there will be other chances we disagree ongoing forward for more 5 bets.. get down 20 and its payup time.. or when you lose the 1st 20 you could just hook me up with a mu ticket. no more ot.. i'll get on yahoo in a few.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The thing with LES, especially shallow stuff like this, is that the models usually don't pick up on it. Check out King City radar right now. Those SHSN blowing into eastern Durham/Northumberland county right now at no time showed up on the NAM. That being said, usually the "bigger" LES events do show up, even on comparatively lo-res models. So the fact that NAM's not picking up on it may be a sign that we probably shouldn't count on more than 1-2" additional. I'd wait until this gets into the range of the 12km WRF before coming to any conclusions. I'd rather focus on LES in the short term....perhaps 6-12 hrs within the event. Its best to first see where this storm tracks and the total qpf. The winds do seem to be out of the SE, ESE predominantly so it'll be interesting to say the least. 21z SREF members look sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'd rather focus on LES in the short term....perhaps 6-12 hrs within the event. Its best to first see where this storm tracks and the total qpf. The winds do seem to be out of the SE, ESE predominantly so it'll be interesting to say the least. 21z SREF members look sick. eh, I can multitask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 There's that heart breaker gradient showing up again...sounds like it bumped amounts a little though. has continued to do so the last several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 has continued to do so the last several runs nice to hear, GFS rolling out now, wonder if it will stay on the drier side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM looks a hair south of the NAM at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM looks a hair south of the NAM at 48 hours. and coming in slower like it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks Awesome TS, I'm gonna have to attempt the intern thing at WGN.. Where are you going to school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks Awesome TS, I'm gonna have attempt the intern thing at WGN.. Where are you going to school? College of DuPage then probably NIU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 College of DuPage then probably NIU. We may run into each other then next year.. heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 0z GFS a tad south and wetter through 39hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 7.9 midway to 2.5 joliet yikes . . . lol gl on the first night at the office bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like it may be trending South as the SLU CIPS Cold analogs have suggested, Good News for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks good over here, a lot better than the NAM at least 7.9 midway to 2.5 joliet yikes . . . lol gl on the first night at the office bud Bottom line is someone is going to get p*ssed off with this gradient on the southern edge, just a matter of who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS is def south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice hit for the Northern IL guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0z GFS not much different than the 12z, maybe a bit further north further east. Further north? Further south if anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS; not impressed at all..Looks faster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still on the lowest side of guidance in regards to precipitation, but it would be a high-end advisory snow for most east of IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thinking a solid 2-4 inch event for most of the Detroit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Personally, I prefer the GFS over the NAM because of the more southern extent with the QPF. This gives OKK and LAF a little bit of love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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