BeastFromTheEast Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 haha he is usually really busy, I'll try to get Hamernik who is a good met. He's one of my favs after Tom.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like the Lake will have to bail this one out for Toronto. Although it's not unknown for the NAM to shift abruptly one run only to shift back a few runs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 as whe thought..nam on crack.. like i thought all a long its a i80 special and bascially what every model has shown from the get go. euro has been decent but its been far from perfect and we should see it follow suit and south like its been mosty with the best qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM looks a good bit like the previous couple GFS runs with the general orientation of the band...just wetter overall in comparison but that is normal for the NAM. I still like my original IMBY call for 5". Insane gradient on the southern end in NWOH... over .6" @ TOL and barely .2" at FDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hamernick. Didn't that guy used to be in rochester, minute?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nah, they were both weird. It is weaker than both the ECMWF and the GGEM. It was tongue in cheek, but yes the NAM takes its sweet time "strengthening". Eh, see what the rest of the silly models have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Tapers out in SEMI a bit... but good run for N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Insane gradient on the southern end in NWOH... over .6" @ TOL and barely .2" at FDY. i know some of the early wrf runs have been hinting at a razor southern edge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LAF and OKK get close to three inches on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like the Lake will have to bail this one out for Toronto. Although it's not unknown for the NAM to shift abruptly one run only to shift back a few runs later. Just one run, lets see. It does show SE to ESE Winds of Lk. Ont, does seem interesting. You mind running bufkit for this when available? Thanks! It still shows 3-4" w/o snow ratios and possible enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll take higher ratio fluff over lower ratio bullseye snows anyway. At least many of us shouldn't have to worry about precip type. Keep telling yourself that lol.. And be affraid, very affraid of se and east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Keep telling yourself that lol.. And be affraid, very affraid of se and east winds. normally hate those, not too afraid this time, look very light to almost calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00z NAM has LAF more solidly in zr although possibly a little snow/sleet to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Keep telling yourself that lol.. And be affraid, very affraid of se and east winds. Ok, so T-1" is your prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hamernik. Didn't that guy used to be in rochester, minute?? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just one run, lets see. It does show SE to ESE Winds of Lk. Ont, does seem interesting. You mind running bufkit for this when available? Thanks! It still shows 3-4" w/o snow ratios and possible enhancement. Sure. That map is contaminated with tomorrow's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hamernick was solid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ok, so T-1" is your prediction? wut lol? 3-5" 5 in western kenosha, maybe 3 or 4 for you would be my call.. best snows i've always thought were west and south of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sure. That map is contaminated with tomorrow's snow. Yeah like 0.5-1.0 inches at max LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LAF and OKK get close to three inches on this run That's with tomorrow's snow dude. Friday's deal is a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 wut lol? 3-5" 5 in western kenosha, maybe 3 or 4 for you would be my call.. best snows i've always thought were west and south of the border. Fair enough, so I suppose you'll say Mark McGinnis' early call of 3-6" is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00z NAM has LAF more solidly in zr although possibly a little snow/sleet to start. Looks like it. lol, what a dumb model. We only get to 3.2C at 900 with this run. Solidly below freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.53" at VPZ on the NAM, but we've gotta watch that warm layer. Technically all snow on this run, but in the middle of it all, 900mb temps hit -1.2 C, which is too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like it. lol, what a dumb model. We only get to 3.2C at 900 with this run. Solidly below freezing at the surface. Gets a bit warmer than that at 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ORD is 0.65", even though ratios are probably 10:1 or 12:1. No 20:1 on the NAM, lol. Still though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Fair enough, so I suppose you'll say Mark McGinnis' early call of 3-6" is why would i say that. 3 north and 6 far south/sw is fine. fine tune up or down some as things become more clear tomorrow night. still don't like a se and east wind up here. be prepared to get needled to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Gets a bit warmer than that at 57 hours. I was only looking at the 6 hour plots. Regardless, a run in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 wut lol? 3-5" 5 in western kenosha, maybe 3 or 4 for you would be my call.. best snows i've always thought were west and south of the border. Want to make it a bet? Under 5 you win, over 5 I win for $5? If not, let me know on yahoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah like 0.5-1.0 inches at max LOL. 1.5" per BUFKIT for Friday night. Very narrow DGZ with minimal vvs. LSRs are about 12:1. It does show moderate lake induced instability but with the usual problems that plague E wind LES. Inversion height at about 3K feet and a ton of wind shear. It would probably be enough to set up some multibands. Maybe add on an additional 1-2" locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 new SREF, slowly ticking wetter probably a good compromise for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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