AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ok even if it's Freezing rain it still would knock down totals and that means lower snow ratio's is why I think the heaviest snow will be north of Detroit IMBY a little? I mean one model (and almost the ECM) show anything like that... and given the consistency/agreement between the GFS and its ensembles, I'd think Kenosha-Kalamazoo-Detroit would be the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Touche. It cuts deep though. But I was hinting towards your PM a couple of days ago about feeling confident about the late week system. Alas, maybe you were talking about tomorrow's snow. I was hoping that the cold wouldn't be bullied out of the way but it appears that's what's going to happen unless we see a big change quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 No you would want them to be colder if you want a deeper DGZ. Aren't mid teens F near the optimal zone? -8 and -10C are within that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Aren't mid teens F near the optimal zone? -8 and -10C are within that range. about -12C to -18C is best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 about -12C to -18C is best Well, I'm a bit off anyways. At 18z, after the first tenth or so of precip, the 850s according to the 12z Euro are projected to be 12.8 C. Bottom line, the Euro shows good potential for ratios in the zone of most intense precip, something many of the other models do not show as much of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, I'm a bit off anyways. At 18z, after the first tenth or so of precip, the 850s according to the 12z Euro are projected to be 12.8 C. Bottom line, the Euro shows good potential for ratios in the zone of most intense precip, something many of the other models do not show as much of. Only thing I'd caution is that 850 mb temps may not tell the whole story. There could be warmer layers above that which would make the DGZ smaller than what it may appear. You'd have to see the entire thermal profile to really make a good assessment about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 In with Skilling tonight and were coming in with an average of 5.6" for here averaged out over 36 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I don't think I ever saw an NGM frame spitting out greater than 0.50"/6 hr. Green only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In with Skilling tonight and were coming in with an average of 5.6" for here averaged out over 36 model runs. my call this afternoon was for 5", so nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM looking a tick south through 33hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM looks south a bit through36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM looks south a bit through36. Yep fairly easy to see when comparing to 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It is weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks really weak and dry too this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 looks pretty for this area, going to be much more GFS like, nice run to stop the bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 looks pretty for this area, going to be much more GFS like, nice run to stop the bleeding. Thank the lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thank the lord. going from a probably fluffy snow event to possible p-type issues in 12 hours was pretty unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Def further south and colder at 48hr, should be a great run for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 going from a probably fluffy snow event to possible p-type issues in 12 hours was pretty unsettling. 850mb 0C line @ hour 54 is near Southern IL/IN/OH, compared to just south of I-80 on the 18z. Edit: hr 54, not 48 as I said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 850mb 0C line @ hour 54 is near Southern IL/IN/OH, compared to just south of I-80 on the 18z. Edit: hr 54, not 48 as I said before. consistency...NAM style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Chicago poundage on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In with Skilling tonight and were coming in with an average of 5.6" for here averaged out over 36 model runs. get skilling to board here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 consistency...NAM style Hey now, this is a solid 1 run in a row showing the same solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Although highly highly unlikely I would Lol if the GFS moved north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll take higher ratio fluff over lower ratio bullseye snows anyway. At least many of us shouldn't have to worry about precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll take higher ratio fluff over lower ratio bullseye snows anyway. At least many of us shouldn't have to worry about precip type. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM looks weird. Some would say the 12z run looked weirder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like the location I'm at with this run - the northern edge of the highest qpf. Should get decent snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 get skilling to board here haha he is usually really busy, I'll try to get Hamernik who is a good met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM looks a good bit like the previous couple GFS runs with the general orientation of the band...just wetter overall in comparison but that is normal for the NAM. I still like my original IMBY call for 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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