Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I love our UKMET graphics on the COD site but they take forever to update runs. Here was the 12z, pretty jacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I love our UKMET graphics on the COD site but they take forever to update runs. Here was the 12z, pretty jacked. Yeah, Plymouth State gets the job done, but its like using a Tracfone instead of an iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM actually has a band of rather significant icing (0.2-0.5") running along I-80, per the coolwx graphics anyway. not surprising given that power plus WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol What the... Taft or Caplan be trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 What the... Taft or Caplan be trolling. Caplan put it up on fb earlier from their in house microcast. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol http://www.wsbt.com/weather/futurecast/ matches South Bend's in house..... total snow accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 LSX WRF...insane southern gradient, also 850mb temps get as warm as -2 up to I-88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Part of 648pm Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Cleveland... SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THIS EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH FAST AND BE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY...QUICKLY OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW WITH BREEZY SOUTH WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACROSS THE WEST...MAY HAVE FALLING TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WE GET A BRIEF LAKE EFFECT SET UP. AGAIN IT IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIMITED CLEARING POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE COLD AND WILL KEEP THEM BETWEEN 10 AND 15 OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SOUTHERN SYSTEM. ITS TRACK AND THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR PUSH WILL DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...GFS FURTHEST SOUTH AND THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT LOOK MORE LIKE SLEET WITH A DEEPER SUB-FREEZING LAYER WITH A NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT STAY TUNED. OTHERWISE A SEVERAL INCH SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SLEET/WINTRY MIX. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST AS SOME SORT OF HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED. HPC HAS ALSO PAINTED SOME ICING IN THE FORECAST TOO. THIS MIX COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN THIS IS A QUICK SYSTEM AND WILL SCOOT ACROSS FAST ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL BE PULLING AWAY SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If I have learned one thing as an weather watcher it is one can never ignore the Euro. Sometimes it is wrong but it can't be ignored especially by non professionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like they are ignoring the Euro/NAM As Alek pointed out earlier, the EE rule in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am new to the board what is the EE rule?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am new to the board what is the EE rule?? ETA/Euro. When the 2 were in agreement, you could basically take the solution to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I wouldn't ignore the Euro either but I think there's been enough waffling to say that it's not quite locked in to a solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 http://www.wsbt.com/...her/futurecast/ matches South Bend's in house..... total snow accum Holy cow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 And on the note, I miss the NGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 And on the note, I miss the NGM. the one model you could always count on not to overdo QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If we had it for the current setup, it would be congrats Green Bay. with 0.25" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I know. You can't keep your eyes off the GGEM solution lol Eh, snow (well anything significant) is looking like a longshot. I'm all about avoiding plain rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the one model you could always count on not to overdo QPF Yeah. It's MOS (FWC) wasn't too bad though. I remember back in the day totaling the categorical snow numbers (though I guess you can still do it with MET and MAV)...ah the good old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Toledo looks solid for a good thumping. Like there placement for a more wetter solution. The southern half of DTX's CWA could be flirting with borderline warning criteria. I like where we are at this point. Mixing with sleet near the Ohio Border will trim down snow totals... Hence weaker ratios. Sweet spot is between 94 and 69. Ratios will be higher in the 13-17 to 1 category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Eh, snow (well anything significant) is looking like a longshot. I'm all about avoiding plain rain now. I hope you have a bad feeling/are pessimistic about the next good snowfall threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 What's crazy about the Euro solution is not only does it give areas like Madison and Milwaukee a half inch of QPF, but 850 temps are in the -8 to -10 range, pretty much the optimal range for the DGR. I don't think we will be able to have a better run for the duration of this model watching period, except maybe by the jacked up NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like they are ignoring the Euro/NAM I don't know why the NAM should be considered right now, completely out of line with any other model Mixing with sleet near the Ohio Border will trim down snow totals... Hence weaker ratios. Sweet spot is between 94 and 69. Ratios will be higher in the 13-17 to 1 category. Why sleet? If anything, it would either be all snow or freezing rain which the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I hope you have a bad feeling/are pessimistic about the next good snowfall threat. I'll leave that to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 SREF has some fun little winter weather products... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOL that's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I don't know why the NAM should be considered right now, completely out of line with any other model Why sleet? If anything, it would either be all snow or freezing rain which the NAM shows. ok even if it's Freezing rain it still would knock down totals and that means lower snow ratio's is why I think the heaviest snow will be north of Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll leave that to you. Touche. It cuts deep though. But I was hinting towards your PM a couple of days ago about feeling confident about the late week system. Alas, maybe you were talking about tomorrow's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 What's crazy about the Euro solution is not only does it give areas like Madison and Milwaukee a half inch of QPF, but 850 temps are in the -8 to -10 range, pretty much the optimal range for the DGR. I don't think we will be able to have a better run for the duration of this model watching period, except maybe by the jacked up NAM. No you would want them to be colder if you want a deeper DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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