Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah I'm confused with marsilis disco as well. He's a great met...but yeah...doesn't make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lot thinking 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah I'm confused with marsilis disco as well. He's a great met...but yeah...doesn't make sense I thought he might've meant freezing rain but the next part of the disco shows that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Prelim thoughts for Toronto proper would be 5 to 8 cm. Less as you move further north (further away from synoptic forcing + LES). Good call. Lets hope it comes to fruition. The HP anomaly across the north wil be key but it doesnt seem like we will have any precip issues so I guess we can toss that possiblity out for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thoughts on the Fri PM - Sat PM snow http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/01/third-wave-of-arctic-air-reinforcement.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The grass around here is not even close to brown..and ground is soaked..not frozen..Last night I picked up about 1.5" of snowfall, and guess what it's all gone..but of course this system is a lot stronger, and rates will make the snow stick quickly and accumulate..the thing I'm trying to say is that we did not have a sustained cold pattern..we were in the 50s yesterday. First of all the grass here is a lot more brown than it is green. Of course there are some green blades of grass, but when you look at the big picture the dominant color of the ground is brown, certainly not green. Next, how in the heck is your ground soaked and not frozen, and how did 1.5" of snow melt? It was in the 20s today. Being in the 50s for a few hours in January with cold air before and after it means nothing for "warm ground temps". If you think the ground will do anything to hinder snow accumulation Friday night, just, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wonder if the clipper will have a impact on track? If the clipper is slower the cold air will not move out as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 always lose when i bet with my heart or gut. rather dumb bet no matter what but after a dicked over holiday season when i love snow the most and it was basically snowless I was pretty much fed up with winter and nothing looked like it was changing too fast.. Pissed, and a few beers in when I made the bets that night is normally a good thing for the sober one or vegas. lol i remember when i commented some time back the gfs was advertising a torch on my b-day tomorrow and how I couldn't ask for a much better day to in mid jan to go ice fishing.. Instead its the coldest day of the winter and we're tracking a decent snow event. I remember you saying that. LR GFS is just lolz. Happy Birthday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Good call. Lets hope it comes to fruition. The HP anomaly across the north wil be key but it doesnt seem like we will have any precip issues so I guess we can toss that possiblity out for this storm. Yeah, RA/ZR/PL is not happening here. There is the potential for more than that amount if LES helps out but it's too early to know for sure. There are at least hints right now that we could get some modest enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DTX going with 3 to 5" with possible Higher amounts. Also noted ratios around 13 to 1 Detroit Northward. Sfc temps should be in the teens to near 20F during the event here, Ive seen 10-1 ratios with temps in the teens and 20-1 ratios with temps near 30F. As someone said, surface temps arent everything with ratios. I think snowflake size will have something to do with it, although 10-1 ratios for DTW sound a bit TOO low imo (thats what DTX prelim thinking is). Said they wont even touch on sleet mixing in because the NAM is the only model that doesnt keep us all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS is similar to NAM - hits IL/WI border areas hardest. Colder than 18z NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Shallow subfreezing air hanging on for dear life, but IF that huge warm layer plays out with the lack of deep low level easterly flow, it doesn't give high confidence in surface temps staying below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS looks like it nudged north a hair from its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah, RA/ZR/PL is not happening here. There is the potential for more than that amount if LES helps out but it's too early to know for sure. There are at least hints right now that we could get some modest enhancement. I guess in this case timing and track are key. Until the track gets nailed I wouldnt worry much about how LES interacts and it depends on the wind flow of LK Ont and the strength but snow ratios of 12:1 seem legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS is similar to NAM - hits IL/WI border areas hardest. Colder than 18z NAM though. The northern most extent of the .25+ QPF is further north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think I'm just going to wait until it comes onshore before getting too deep in this. These model differences make it tough to have a meaningful discussion about our precip type lol Shallow subfreezing air hanging on for dear life, but IF that huge warm layer plays out with the lack of deep low level easterly flow, it doesn't give high confidence in surface temps staying below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I guess in this case timing and track are key. Until the track gets nailed I wouldnt worry much about how LES interacts and it depends on the wind flow of LK Ont and the strength but snow ratios of 12:1 seem legit. I think I'll checkout what BUFKIT has to say about it starting after the 12z runs tomorrow. Oh, and welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Can't hep myslef. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS is further north and a bit beefier with QPF than the 12z run 18z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think I'll checkout what BUFKIT has to say about it starting after the 12z runs tomorrow. Oh, and welcome back. lol.....decided to come back after seeing this week, lol. thanks man! Only got 1.0cm with that clipper last week whereas everyone else got like 2"+ 18z GFS, further north than the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DVN point for here is a bullish 5". My early first call would be more in the 1-3" range, but still several more model runs to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 A lot wetter here than the 12z was... nearly .5" for FWA to TOL/DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 First of all the grass here is a lot more brown than it is green. Of course there are some green blades of grass, but when you look at the big picture the dominant color of the ground is brown, certainly not green. Next, how in the heck is your ground soaked and not frozen, and how did 1.5" of snow melt? It was in the 20s today. Being in the 50s for a few hours in January with cold air before and after it means nothing for "warm ground temps". If you think the ground will do anything to hinder snow accumulation Friday night, just, LOL. No, absolutely not. I was just saying lack of snowfall, and cold air in this region could be a problem..waa? J/S..And yes I did have 1.5" of snowfall over night, and honestly it melted all today.. although temps are in the 20s, there are ponds of water on the streets, not frozen.. so you tell me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm thinking this is a total non-event here for friday night and yet ILN was batting around the idea of issuing a watch. A couple more model runs should put that silliness to rest. Euro will clobber the gfs. ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FA...IT LOOKS LIKE A WINTERY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ACROSS THE FAR N...MOSTLY SNOW WITH A LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW...DUE TO THE GFS SOLUTION...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM actually has a band of rather significant icing (0.2-0.5") running along I-80, per the coolwx graphics anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Toledo looks solid for a good thumping. Like there placement for a more wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Toledo looks solid for a good thumping. Like there placement for a more wetter solution. The southern half of DTX's CWA could be flirting with borderline warning criteria. I like where we are at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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