Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't see those ratios for my area, I used 15:1 in the call i made around noon (12z guidance really flipped the switch here)...the 18z NAM would be more like 10:1 with 5" of cement. Sorry, I'm just replying as I'm reading/getting caught up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DTX going with 3 to 5" with possible Higher amounts. Also noted ratios around 13 to 1 Detroit Northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That would be a EURO scenario at this point. Good range to start from though. The Euro spit out .4 in LaCrosse. If that really verifies its at least 8 inches. But I understand there is a wide range of scenarios on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looking at soundings off the 18z NAM for around here we stay all snow but come very close to freezing around 850mb late friday night but with sfc temps and dew points not really close to freezing and some solid ascent through the column, hopefully we can cool it a bit more. pretty wild that it's come this far, nearly .7" liquid IMBY this run...cement city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Has a met even posted in this thread once? That's one of the areas our subforum has to improve on. Hey man any thoughts on this for the GTA? I think 3-6cm currently is a good call? I would use snow ratios of 10:1 and 12:1 for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM gets LAF IND to 37º at the surface...or slightly above. 900mb temps of 7.7C at 66 hours. Yikes. EDIT: crap that was the sounding for IND. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I bet the GFS will be colder on the 18z because the NAM was warmer. The models will try their hardest to confuse us all even more. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM gets LAF to 37º at the surface...or slightly above. 900mb temps of 7.7C at 66 hours. Yikes. Pretty wild, plain rain call may verify after all. I'm still impressed by how efficient that WAA is as eroding the fresh cold air...I'm used to seeing it with cutters that crank heights but not a pac ripple so quick on the heals of a cutter, fun stuff. EDIT: see your edit, doesn't matter, it's still an impressive warmup, the maps of 850 temps between 24 and 48 hours are wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 HPC That map was issued at 9z, so it's been 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM gets LAF IND to 37º at the surface...or slightly above. 900mb temps of 7.7C at 66 hours. Yikes. EDIT: crap that was the sounding for IND. My bad. This one is kinda tough to figure since we will be cold going in. We have ESE flow to start which quickly becomes southerly farther aloft which is not very good for maintaining a sfc cold layer, but this becomes more favorable later on in the event. GGEM could be a problem if it's cold enough given its robust precip output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I didn't get a chance to post them, but interesting, differing, reads between IWX and IND AFD's for tomorrow and Friday's storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That map was issued at 9z, so it's been 12 hours oops, my bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This one is kinda tough to figure since we will be cold going in. We have ESE flow to start which quickly becomes southerly farther aloft which is not very good for maintaining a sfc cold layer, but this becomes more favorable later on in the event. GGEM could be a problem if it's cold enough given its robust precip output. Well I think the robust WAA is going to happen, that much I think you agree with. The only issue I see, other than what you mentioned above, is how quickly the precip arrives. Later or the longer it takes=warmer outcome to me...of course warmer being relative. Should be an interesting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well I think the robust WAA is going to happen, that much I think you agree with. The only issue I see, other than what you mentioned above, is how quickly the precip arrives. Later or the longer it takes=warmer outcome to me...of course warmer being relative. Should be an interesting one. Since we're now talking about surprisingly strong WAA, it's worth watching for WAA precip to break out earlier than expected as often happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hey man any thoughts on this for the GTA? I think 3-6cm currently is a good call? I would use snow ratios of 10:1 and 12:1 for this storm. Prelim thoughts for Toronto proper would be 5 to 8 cm. Less as you move further north (further away from synoptic forcing + LES). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I didn't get a chance to post them, but interesting, differing, reads between IWX and IND AFD's for tomorrow and Friday's storms... IWX apparently bought the NAM completely. Though I'm not sure I see what they see on the bolded below. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG THE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS REMAIN AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES PER MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE AFTERNOON...INTRODUCING A MIX AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS....AND SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...PREFERRED TO LEAVE A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FRIDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE. WILL DEFER REFINING OF P-TYPE TO NEXT FORECAST CYCLE AND HOPEFULLY MORE CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 MKE CIPS ANALOGS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN CORRECTION MAY BE IN ORDER GOING FORWARD. IF THE COLD AIR BECOMES DEEPER...AND THAT BAROCLINIC ZONES STAYS MORE SOUTH...THE CORE OF THE PRECIP WILL FOLLOW A SOUTHERN CORRECTION. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE QPF AND RATIOS...LOOKING AT A SOLID 5 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A GOOD ADVISORY SITUATION THAT MAY END UP BEING UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF QPF BEGINS TO INCREASE. CONTEMPLATED A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. JUST CAN/T SEE HIGHER QPF WITH THIS COLD AIR. FOR NOW...NO HEADLINES. ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE USUALLY LIMITED TO THE SECOND AND POSSIBLY THIRD PERIOD. ALSO...THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER FRIDAY AS THE WEAK FLOW TURNS ONSHORE. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO THEN WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT MAY CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well I think the robust WAA is going to happen, that much I think you agree with. The only issue I see, other than what you mentioned above, is how quickly the precip arrives. Later or the longer it takes=warmer outcome to me...of course warmer being relative. Should be an interesting one. I think I'm just going to wait until it comes onshore before getting too deep in this. These model differences make it tough to have a meaningful discussion about our precip type lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 IWX apparently bought the NAM completely. Though I'm not sure I see what they see on the bolded below. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG THE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS REMAIN AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES PER MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE AFTERNOON...INTRODUCING A MIX AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS....AND SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...PREFERRED TO LEAVE A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FRIDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE. WILL DEFER REFINING OF P-TYPE TO NEXT FORECAST CYCLE AND HOPEFULLY MORE CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. Yeah I don't get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think I'm just going to wait until it comes onshore before getting too deep in this. These model differences make it tough to have a meaningful discussion about our precip type lol Hey, I'm just throwing out some scenarios...my bad. I guess we can get through our 1-2" tomorrow and then narrow in on the Friday deal later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah I don't get that. IND on the other hand remains all Winter precip for their Northern Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 MKE CIPS ANALOGS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN CORRECTION MAY BE IN ORDER GOING FORWARD. IF THE COLD AIR BECOMES DEEPER...AND THAT BAROCLINIC ZONES STAYS MORE SOUTH...THE CORE OF THE PRECIP WILL FOLLOW A SOUTHERN CORRECTION. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE QPF AND RATIOS...LOOKING AT A SOLID 5 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A GOOD ADVISORY SITUATION THAT MAY END UP BEING UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF QPF BEGINS TO INCREASE. CONTEMPLATED A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. JUST CAN/T SEE HIGHER QPF WITH THIS COLD AIR. FOR NOW...NO HEADLINES. ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE USUALLY LIMITED TO THE SECOND AND POSSIBLY THIRD PERIOD. ALSO...THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER FRIDAY AS THE WEAK FLOW TURNS ONSHORE. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO THEN WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT MAY CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER. Analogs only take you so far when forecasting future wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Quad Cities disco... THERE ARE TWO CAMPS IN THE MODELS...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE HITTING THE NORTH WITH SATURATION AND THE SOUTH...MISSING COMPLETELY OUT. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIR VERY WELL...AND A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AS NOTED BY THE 12Z...UKMET...GFS...GEM IS PREFERRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Analogs only take you so far when forecasting future wx. Yep.. I guess its still better to play it safe at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Qc always keeps hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lots of offices discounting the EURO. Gonna be interesting to watch this the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah I don't get that. Their zone and point forecast doesnt support their AFD. I'm kinda confused, especially as they have the high of 22 Friday with all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This is one of the few situations where I'm not sure I believe that the WAA will win out, especially with the Arctic air mass to the North, the trajectory of the system, and a fresh layer of snow for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 IND on the other hand remains all Winter precip for their Northern Counties. correct, with a 1 - 1.5" snow for points north of Indy tomorrow, and essentially frozen precip in 1 form for the next, whereas IWX is saying rain for most of their areas to the south...shall be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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