Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM has it's sights set on the border region here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 and slower? tad slower, still warm, weaker at 850 and slightly south with precip, lighter QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nam looks like all ice. Low is far south, but 540 line is far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM has it's sights set on the border region here! 20 miles either side of the border has been a nice cross model consensus for a while now, i'd probably favor just north of the border over just south but you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Man the NAM is scorching the lower levels. This run will probably be 6C+ at 900 here...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the NAM is very slow and really allows 850s to crank...p-type issues into Chicago...a day after an artic front and without a gulf connection...only this year could this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The low is in Oklahoma, put the precip is in Chicago. lol How does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Almost identical from the 12Z run at HR 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I see the GFS/NAM model war is continuing on. NAM/EURO versus GGEM/GFS with UKIE inbetween who will the winner be?? and the SREF's continue to be all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Man the NAM is scorching the lower levels. This run will probably be 6C+ at 900 here...lol. Lets just warm the lower levels and get another round of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 the NAM is very slow and really allows 850s to crank...p-type issues into Chicago...a day after an artic front and without a gulf connection...only this year could this happen. lol with the GFS keeping 850s between -8 and -10 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Definitely wetter for this area and back towards Cyclone but it looks like p-type issues or very close to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 After some further review, i really wanted to hype the ratio issue a bit more. First, lets put the last storm behind us, totally different setup (heck we were near 50 not 12 hours before on set), cold filtered in late and surfaces were wet and warm. This go around looks close to perfect...about as big a DGZ as you see around here that coincides nicely with good lift, ice cold dry surfaces and nearly calm winds. The 20:1 talk isn't just warranted, i think we'll see better than that, especially under any banding and if lake moisture gets pulled in as mentioned by LOT. EDIT: I see MKE is going full weenie like I just did, mentions ratios at 20:1 to start and drops a 30:1 mention in for fun. Geos is going to slant stick a 15"er I'd be cautious about going with crazy high ratios in your area. DGZ looks much better farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 My Map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the NAM is very slow and really allows 850s to crank...p-type issues into Chicago...a day after an artic front and without a gulf connection...only this year could this happen. WAA always seems to be under-appreciated with these types of systems. Sneaky really. I'd love to punt the NAM's thermals, but that's what it used to be good at...or still is I guess. IL/WI border on north FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol with the GFS keeping 850s between -8 and -10 around here. Our model discrepencies seem to be growing...still feel the NAM is a little too quick to jack up those 850s but it really slows down who knows. The HPC did discount the GFS's quicker wave so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM excellent for synoptic here in Toronto but really throughs a wrench into the LES potential with temps moderating so quickly. EURO, even compared to the 12z NAM, is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM looks a tad to warm. Mixing issues From Detroit South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Over a 1/4" of ice on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 The low is in Oklahoma, put the precip is in Chicago. lol How does that happen? Its not always about where the sfc low is. Look aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'd be cautious about going with crazy high ratios in your area. DGZ looks much better farther north. I don't see those ratios for my area, I used 15:1 in the call i made around noon (12z guidance really flipped the switch here)...the 18z NAM would be more like 10:1 with 5" of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Has a met even posted in this thread once? That's one of the areas our subforum has to improve on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's a nail biter. Moving one grid point north/south on the twisterdata soundings makes the difference between a sufficient cold layer for zr or not. Not that I'm rooting for zr. It's not much but if we get 1-2" of snow tomorrow it could be enough to ensure the surface stays aob 32. Pretty good warm air aloft (especially NAM) as Tim said and the question is how much of that mixes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Has a met even posted in this thread once? That's one of the areas our subforum has to improve on. We lost a couple good ones, Justin normally weighs in for my area when we get closer to zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Man I don't know what to think. The Euro is now the only model low-balling us with 0.06" precip lol. It had us near 0.25" on the previous run. Hoping the 12z was just a crappy run, but who knows. Model breakdown for us would be 3-6" from the GFS/Ukie/GEM, and now 18z NAM. Euro would be <1" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 La Crosse currently going 2-4 Southeast Minnesota and 3-6 northeast Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Has a met even posted in this thread once? That's one of the areas our subforum has to improve on. Stebo is the only one that posts on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I feel pretty confident that most of Northern and North Central Indiana will stay aob freezing Friday Night and Saturday. What could happen though, if the NAM's warm layer verifies, is that the droplets could be so warm, they don't freeze on contact, even with temperatures below freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 La Crosse currently going 2-4 Southeast Minnesota and 3-6 northeast Iowa. That would be a EURO scenario at this point. Good range to start from though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looking at soundings off the 18z NAM for around here we stay all snow but come very close to freezing around 850mb late friday night but with sfc temps and dew points not really close to freezing and some solid ascent through the column, hopefully we can cool it a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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