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Jan 20th snow event

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

Didn't we have this discussion before? It's mid January. The amount of snow loss due to insolation, especially when temps are going to be as cold as they are, is minimal.

It is mid January, however don't forget that it has been fairly mild thus far. I've seen a few bursts of heavier snow move through, and dump about 1-2"overnight, once daylight hits, it melts.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Let's hope so! Although I do think that the euro will continue to increase its QPF output for us as it will start to trend more north. Good news is that the torch looks semi-muted next week but probably still will get a couple of warm days.

It could go either way. Lack of initial/decreasing amplitude with the s/w makes me think this thing could only go so far north. But for us, it would only take a noise level shift to get into the northern periphery of the better snows.

I'd say the LES potential is one to watch. Sort of reminds me of December 8, 2000. Conditions only looked semi-favourable then but at the end of the day, Oakville walked away with 2 feet of snow. Obviously I'm not calling for the same this time, but these things can surprise.

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
Posted

It could go either way. Lack of initial/decreasing amplitude with the s/w makes me think this thing could only go so far north. But for us, it would only take a noise level shift to get into the northern periphery of the better snows.

I'd say the LES potential is one to watch. Sort of reminds me of December 8, 2000. Conditions only looked semi-favourable then but at the end of the day, Oakville walked away with 2 feet of snow. Obviously I'm not calling for the same this time, but these things can surprise.

Hmm was too young to remember that but a more recent storm was Jan 2009 when the system tracked more north than expected and gave lake effect snow which added to 3-7"

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BeastFromTheEast

BeastFromTheEast

Posted
Posted

12z ECMWF

LSE:

FRI 12Z 20-JAN -14.2   -13.5	1022	  49	 100	0.01	 543	 526  
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.8   -12.1	1021	  75	  97	0.22	 543	 528  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -13.2   -12.1	1021	  83	  83	0.14	 544	 529

MSN:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.8   -11.0	1022	  76	 100	0.16	 546	 529  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.2	-9.2	1019	  87	 100	0.24	 546	 532  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.4   -10.1	1019	  88	  56	0.05	 546	 532

MKE:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -8.8   -12.8	1021	  76	  98	0.09	 546	 530  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.1	-9.4	1018	  87	  98	0.31	 547	 533  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.0	-9.0	1017	  84	  84	0.11	 547	 533  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.4	-8.1	1018	  80	  14	0.01	 548	 534

SBM:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -9.9   -14.5	1022	  70	 100	0.05	 543	 526  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.1   -12.5	1019	  84	  98	0.22	 544	 529  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.6   -11.7	1019	  82	  64	0.05	 544	 530  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.9   -10.5	1019	  82	  18	0.00	 546	 532  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -4.2	-8.3	1021	  69	  21	0.01	 551	 534

CID:

FRI 12Z 20-JAN -11.8	-7.3	1020	  56	  99	0.01	 551	 536  
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -8.4	-5.0	1017	  59	  85	0.03	 551	 538  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.7	-5.7	1016	  77	  76	0.01	 550	 538  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.8	-6.6	1018	  82	  52	0.01	 550	 536


DVN:
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.5	-4.7	1017	  47	  79	0.03	 551	 538  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.6	-4.3	1016	  67	  79	0.02	 551	 539  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.1	-4.8	1016	  79	  69	0.01	 550	 537

PIA:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.2	-1.1	1014	  60	  73	0.01	 553	 542

RFD:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -8.8	-8.0	1020	  74	  98	0.12	 549	 534  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.9	-6.4	1017	  85	 100	0.12	 549	 536  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.7	-6.6	1016	  90	  81	0.04	 549	 536

ORD:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.7	-8.0	1020	  71	 100	0.09	 550	 534  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.8	-5.8	1017	  83	  99	0.11	 550	 537  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.1	-5.4	1015	  86	  90	0.06	 549	 537  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -3.2	-5.5	1016	  82	  25	0.01	 550	 537

MDW:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.2	-7.4	1020	  65	  99	0.07	 550	 535  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.4	-4.7	1017	  72	  94	0.08	 551	 538  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.7	-4.5	1015	  80	  88	0.05	 550	 538  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.9	-5.1	1016	  81	  33	0.01	 551	 538

DEC:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN   1.0	 2.9	1012	  62	  75	0.01	 557	 548  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.3	 2.6	1011	  89	  64	0.14	 555	 546  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.9	-0.2	1014	  74	  54	0.01	 554	 543

VPZ:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.0	-6.6	1020	  54	 100	0.04	 551	 536  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.8	-2.6	1017	  62	  87	0.04	 552	 539  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.5	-2.8	1015	  78	  96	0.05	 551	 540

LAF:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.9	 2.3	1012	  80	  94	0.05	 554	 545  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.9	 0.3	1013	  81	  63	0.03	 553	 543

IND:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN   0.2	 5.4	1010	  93	  96	0.13	 557	 549  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -1.7	 2.9	1012	  90	  60	0.11	 555	 546

OKK:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.2	-0.4	1016	  49	  60	0.01	 555	 543  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -2.3	 2.1	1012	  81	 100	0.06	 554	 544  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -3.2	 0.2	1013	  84	  72	0.05	 553	 543

FWA:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.1	-1.7	1018	  61	  83	0.04	 554	 540  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.4	 0.4	1014	  79	  98	0.06	 553	 542  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -3.4	-0.9	1014	  87	  77	0.09	 552	 542

DAY:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -1.2	 0.6	1017	  51	  64	0.01	 558	 544  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN   0.2	 6.4	1011	  85	  93	0.04	 557	 548  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -0.7	 4.5	1010	  93	  82	0.26	 556	 548  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   0.8	 3.5	1014	  85	  55	0.01	 557	 546

CMH:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -1.4	-0.1	1018	  49	  77	0.01	 557	 543  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -0.3	 5.4	1013	  78	  90	0.03	 557	 547  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN   0.7	 4.2	1009	  93	  83	0.15	 556	 549  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   3.2	 4.1	1012	  80	  61	0.02	 557	 547

TDZ:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.7	-5.8	1020	  72	 100	0.09	 552	 536  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.2	-1.8	1016	  82	  98	0.09	 552	 539  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.4	-2.3	1014	  91	  95	0.18	 551	 540  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -2.2	-1.4	1017	  80	   8	0.01	 554	 541

CLE:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -3.8	-6.4	1021	  64	 100	0.03	 552	 536  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.4	-1.3	1016	  81	  98	0.09	 552	 540  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.7	-1.1	1013	  92	  99	0.28	 552	 542  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -0.5	-0.2	1015	  85	  34	0.06	 554	 542

MKG:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -7.2   -12.8	1022	  67	 100	0.02	 544	 527  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.3	-9.7	1020	  83	  99	0.23	 546	 530  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.0	-8.7	1019	  85	  93	0.14	 546	 532

GRR:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -7.2   -11.8	1022	  53	 100	0.01	 545	 528  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.1	-8.9	1020	  82	 100	0.20	 547	 531  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.5	-7.4	1018	  87	  97	0.18	 547	 533  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -11.7	-7.9	1018	  87	  23	0.02	 548	 534

BTL:

FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.6   -10.5	1022	  48	 100	0.01	 547	 530  
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.4	-7.0	1020	  78	  99	0.20	 549	 534  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.1	-5.4	1017	  87	  99	0.18	 549	 536  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -8.6	-6.5	1017	  87	  53	0.03	 549	 536

ADG:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.4	-6.6	1021	  76	 100	0.13	 551	 535  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.7	-3.5	1017	  87	  99	0.15	 551	 538  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.8	-3.9	1015	  89	  82	0.09	 550	 538

DTW:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.7	-8.6	1022	  76	  99	0.10	 549	 532  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.5	-4.9	1017	  89	  99	0.22	 549	 536  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -6.0	-5.1	1016	  89	  84	0.10	 549	 537

PHN:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -9.8   -11.6	1023	  80	 100	0.05	 546	 528  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.8	-7.2	1019	  88	 100	0.21	 547	 532  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -7.6	-7.4	1017	  88	  76	0.07	 547	 534

YKF:

SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.3   -13.6	1024	  66	 100	0.01	 544	 525  
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.1   -10.5	1021	  85	 100	0.12	 545	 528  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -6.2	-8.3	1017	  91	  87	0.08	 545	 532  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -4.8	-6.0	1018	  76	  14	0.01	 548	 534

YYZ:

SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.8   -12.4	1022	  80	  99	0.10	 544	 527  
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.1	-9.6	1018	  83	  90	0.09	 545	 531  
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -4.4	-7.2	1019	  76	  15	0.02	 547	 533

Holy **** .52 for MKE? Insane Ratios?? Double digit totals? Bowme Losing money? FTW :thumbsup::snowman:

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Hmm was too young to remember that but a more recent storm was Jan 2009 when the system tracked more north than expected and gave lake effect snow which added to 3-7"

The one around mid month? Yeah, that one actually dropped in excess of a foot across the eastern burbs (Pickering east). Winds had more of a southerly component, but the same principle.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

This snow is coming after a cold blast and during a cold blast.

I know, I'm just saying..Ground temps are still warm...good setup tho, secondary cold arctic front to plow through.. I think that's what really is helping us with this event, if that front did not come through, we would have been talking another rain event..or mix..

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Ya thats where are locations differ alot. The lack of snow here has actually turned the ground into a glacier and driven the frost quite deep.

I hope your water pipes hold up! Need some snow to insulate those utilities.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

I know, I'm just saying..Ground temps are still warm...good setup tho, secondary cold arctic front to plow through.. I think that's what really is helping us with this event, if that front did not come through, we would have been talking another rain event..or mix..

Just walked around at my lot... theres 2-3" of Frost after one night of temps in the mid teens

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

Ya thats where are locations differ alot. The lack of snow here has actually turned the ground into a glacier and driven the frost quite deep.

The grass around here is not even close to brown..and ground is soaked..not frozen..Last night I picked up about 1.5" of snowfall, and guess what it's all gone..but of course this system is a lot stronger, and rates will make the snow stick quickly and accumulate..the thing I'm trying to say is that we did not have a sustained cold pattern..we were in the 50s yesterday.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

:facepalm:

Is it November the 18th by any chance? :huh:

AM, yeah it's January 18th, and I had thunderstorms yesterday with a temp around 54..HM..and yeah I have not seen more then 3" of snowfall since early December, ever since it's been rain storm after rain storm! A couple of days in the teens, and that's about it.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Holy **** .52 for MKE? Insane Ratios?? Double digit totals? Bowme Losing money? FTW :thumbsup::snowman:

wouldn't get too excited and i'm not saying you're but, plenty of time for this to shift south enough to cut off a decent chunk of qpf. Could it stay the same sure but if i was a betting man lol - i would favor areas south and sw of mke to jackpot.. I'm prob wrong but it seems the euro and nam are slower than the GFS allowing it to plumper up that little extra.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

wouldn't get too excited and saying you're but, plenty of time for this to shift south enough to cut off a decent chunk of qpf. Could it stay the same sure but if i was a betting man lol - i would favor areas south and sw of mke to jackpot.. I'm prob wrong but it seems the euro and nam are slower than the GFS allowing it to beef that little extra.

system still just offshore, we should narrow in pretty soon, either way whether it's .25 or .5 for MKE, the cold and 20:1+ ratios up there say one thing, money for Chicagowx

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

always lose when i bet with my heart or gut. rather dumb bet no matter what but after a dicked over holiday season when i love snow the most and it was basically snowless I was pretty much fed up with winter and nothing looked like it was changing too fast.. Pissed, and a few beers in when I made the bets that night is normally a good thing for the sober one or vegas. lol i remember when i commented some time back the gfs was advertising a torch on my b-day tomorrow and how I couldn't ask for a much better day to in mid jan to go ice fishing.. Instead its the coldest day of the winter and we're tracking a decent snow event.

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