dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 0.42 QPF DTW with temps on average -6.5 (20) degrees = 5-6" 0.34 QPF PHN temps on average -7.5 (17) degrees = 6-7" So 4 to 7" for the Detroit area (Southern SEMI) is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The Euro continues to be a huge kick in the crotch for Cedar Rapids and the QCA. Unfortunately it's probably right. GFS and GEM are probably out to lunch. Looks like a non event here if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thanks for posting these by the way! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The Euro continues to be a huge kick in the crotch for Cedar Rapids and the QCA. Unfortunately it's probably right. GFS and GEM are probably out to lunch. Looks like a non event here if trends continue. EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ratio chart: http://www.erh.noaa....-meltwater.html as i'm sure you know, surface temps play a small part in determining ratios, so really this chart is fairly worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 as i'm sure you know, surface temps play a small part in determining ratios, so really this chart is fairly worthless. Do you have a link of good snow ratio chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 EE rule? Locked and loaded...but with the Euro's QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Locked and loaded...but with the Euro's QPF. of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I will say it seems rather strange to have temps in the single digits all day tomorrow, and then have a system track largely north the next day. The Euro owns all this season though, so I won't be against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I will say it seems rather strange to have temps in the single digits all day tomorrow, and then have a system track largely north the next day. The Euro owns all this season though, so I won't be against it. It's the battle of seasonal trends, the NAM's epic failure is aligned with the Euro's clear superiority. I mentioned it in my call, but it's worth noting that if WAA is robust enough to do what the NAM and to a lesser extent the Euro shows, the higher QPF numbers might not be that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Do you have a link of good snow ratio chart? i do not. it's more of a thing that you'll have to check bufkit/soundings and determine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I will say it seems rather strange to have temps in the single digits all day tomorrow, and then have a system track largely north the next day. The Euro owns all this season though, so I won't be against it. It's weird to likely have a low below zero, then see a decent snow event for those who do get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z ECMWF 12z/17 EURO: 0.03" 0z/18 EURO: 0.19" 12z/18 EURO: 0.21" I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I will say it seems rather strange to have temps in the single digits all day tomorrow, and then have a system track largely north the next day. The Euro owns all this season though, so I won't be against it. I agree. Especially with another front to go through a day ahead of it. And with a rather meager SLP. Alas, yep...have to ride the Euro to the grave here. It's weird to likely have a low below zero, then see a decent snow event for those who do get this. Not weird really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Do you have a link of good snow ratio chart? Unfortunately, I don't think one exists. There's no clear cut 1 to 1 conversion from a single variable. You've got to look at the whole picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 .4 on the EURO.... 30:1 ratios ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I agree. Especially with another front to go through a day ahead of it. And with a rather meager SLP. Alas, yep...have to ride the Euro to the grave here. Not weird really. Most snow events are between 20 and 32. The expected high on Friday is upper teens. This isn't even a clipper and is likely to be a tad juicier than your typical clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 .4 on the EURO.... 30:1 ratios ... A foot of powdah for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You have to admit, this is about a best of track you can get so that the most amount of people on this forum get hit with decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Most snow events are between 20 and 32. The expected high on Friday is upper teens. This isn't even a clipper and is likely to be a tad juicier than your typical clipper. Not weird really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Most snow events are between 20 and 32. The expected high on Friday is upper teens. This isn't even a clipper and is likely to be a tad juicier than your typical clipper. Your moving the goal posts. You said it was weird having snow after a low below zero. Not this flim flam about what temperatures snow usually falls at. Never mind...moving along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 anyone catch Skilling at lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 anyone catch Skilling at lunch? Yeah I caught his forecast. He was concentrating on talking about the cold first. Then he said several inches likely Friday, so get out your shovel! Nothing very specific on the system. His RPM temperatures for Friday are colder then other guidance. His RPM model puts northern IL in direct line, alot like the CMC. And the model paints a window of opportunity for lake effect snow on the west side of the lake. Extended forecast has cooled considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Didn't see his full forecast, and all he said at the end of the newscast was sticking snow for Friday...his RPM shows 4-5, but mentioned models showing more and models showing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah I caught his forecast. He was concentrating on talking about the cold first. Then he said several inches likely Friday, so get out your shovel! Nothing very specific on the system. His RPM temperatures for Friday are colder then other guidance. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not sure if it means anything but it looks the the timing of the snowfall here in metro detroit will be overnight towards the morning. Assuming it always helps to not have the snow falling during the day to maximize accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Just from the guidance I have seen the EURO would probably be the best combination of moisture and thermo's around here. NAM is a little more moist but ratios would not be as good. GFS way less moisture but would be sweet ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Delta Ts around 19c and a solid 90-110 degree flow for about 18 hours might yield some half-decent LES on the west side of Lk Ontario. Inversion heights and shear will be a problem as always and will prevent things from going nuts, but I'm thinking I could add 1-3" of LES on top of maybe ~2" synoptic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not sure if it means anything but it looks the the timing of the snowfall here in metro detroit will be overnight towards the morning. Assuming it always helps to not have the snow falling during the day to maximize accumulation. Didn't we have this discussion before? It's mid January. The amount of snow loss due to insolation, especially when temps are going to be as cold as they are, is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Delta Ts around 19c and a solid 90-110 degree flow for about 18 hours might yield some half-decent LES on the west side of Lk Ontario. Inversion heights and shear will be a problem as always and will prevent things from going nuts, but I'm thinking I could add 1-3" of LES on top of maybe ~2" synoptic here. Let's hope so! Although I do think that the euro will continue to increase its QPF output for us as it will start to trend more north. Good news is that the torch looks semi-muted next week but probably still will get a couple of warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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