Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Jan 21, 2008 event BTW. ARX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=jan2108 MKX: http://www.crh.noaa....=13899&source=2 GRR map: http://www.crh.noaa....080121_1200.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:27 PM, Chicago WX said: Jan 21, 2008 event BTW. ARX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=jan2108 MKX: http://www.crh.noaa....=13899&source=2 GRR map: http://www.crh.noaa....080121_1200.png MKE and ARX both mention ratios 25-30:1 during that event, including a mention of light surface winds. It's a rather interesting analog and shows that talk about 12" amounts with this aren't totally off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Rest of the global models making the NAM is on some illegal substances... GGEM is juicy good: EDIT: That would be roughly .5 to .75" or precip for most areas in Northern IN/OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:35 PM, AppsRunner said: Rest of the global models making the NAM is on some illegal substances... GGEM is juicy good: HR 60 is good this area as well, the NAM hasn't been right all winter, probably wise to assume it won't start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:35 PM, Alek said: HR 60 is good this area as well, the NAM hasn't been right all winter, probably wise to assume it won't start now. Assuming that it kept good ratios (assumingly less than 20:1), that's still a large area of 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:37 PM, AppsRunner said: Assuming that it kept good ratios (assumingly less than 20:1), that's still a large area of 6-12" I'm probably going to use 18-20:1 as an average in making my call but that is partially going to be a hedge against overdone model QPF and underdone WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GGEM looks goofy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Don't like being near the southern edge with one of these types of systems. Looks to be a sharp cutoff to areas just south of the main snow band. Looks like it will be one of those situations where it goes from barely anything to 6+ inches in less than 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:41 PM, Chicago WX said: GGEM looks goofy to me. Looks similar to it's 0z solution, really robust with the cyclogenisis, probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:44 PM, Alek said: Looks similar to it's 0z solution, really robust with the cyclogenisis, probably overdone. Most likely. 12z Ukie is juiced at 60 hours...looking at the maps off Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 diagnostics... Quote MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1139 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE. SOME SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NAM LIES ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE GFS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER RELATIVE TO THE NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS AND THE FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. THE 00Z UKMET ALSO LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Crappy map, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:55 PM, Chicago WX said: Crappy map, but you get the idea. Here's a zoomed in version w/ surface temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:59 PM, AppsRunner said: Here's a zoomed in version w/ surface temps: Thanks. I'd love to see what happens between 60-72. Freezing line pretty close at 60, but batted back down at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 HPC preferring the 12Z Ukie thus far... Quote MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1223 PM EST WED JAN 18 2012 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL ...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY... PREFERENCE: UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 5:41 PM, Gilbertfly said: HPC preferring the 12Z Ukie thus far... i can only get this thru H72... 12Z Ukie @H72... That image is old (the 0z run). Here's the 12z run: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 5:43 PM, Chicago WX said: That image is old (the 0z run). Here's the 12z run: http://meteocentre.c...&map=na〈=en I was about to say the Ukie is really slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 5:43 PM, Chicago WX said: That image is old (the 0z run). Here's the 12z run: http://meteocentre.c...&map=na〈=en thanks..... earl...bah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Is that our storm crashing the west coast now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Over achiever on our hands! These setups are sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro looks like its going north. 32 line on top of LAF at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:04 PM, Chicago WX said: Euro looks like its going north. 32 line on top of LAF at 60 hours. Yep it is. Southern WI looks like best through 60hr. Along and north of 88 still look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:06 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Yep it is. Southern WI looks like best through 60hr. Along and north of 88 still look decent. Looks a little drier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 5:47 PM, Stevo6899 said: Is that our storm crashing the west coast now? Yes it is I believe. i think a disturbance breaks off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well the Euro is a bit of a buzzkill, especially for those south of I-80/88. Maybe the NAM being north wasn't so kooky...though the Euro's QPF is nowhere near the NAM's excessive amounts. Still a good hit for SE MN, NE IA, WI, far northern IL/IN and most of MI. Who knows? Stupid models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Time for my early first call...largely Chicago centric. I'm using a pretty hard GFS/Euro split given their superior prior performace this winter with very minor input from the GGEM and NAM. As far as QPF goes, I generally think the main band will deliver amounts around .25-.35 but expect a thin line of .4-.5 across Southern Wisconsin. LOT had been mentioning the possibility of some lake moisture getting pulled in later in the event as boundary level winds could turn off the lake but I'm going to discount that for now given brief window, sketchy details and range but will review once in hi-res range. Also worth mentioning that setups with super cold air and calm winds over the far southern end of the lake can surprise. Ratios are always hard to figure at this range, the NAM is almost certainly wrong by mega torching at 850 but even looking at the much colder GFS, there is some rather robust WAA trying to fire up over the central plains around hr40 and I get the feeling it could possibly be underdoing it...the 12z Euro is a good compromise with respect to thermals. The cold surface temps and calm winds should factor positively in accums and best lift should be just north of the area. I'm going to use 17:1 or so ratios for MBY. First IMBY call 5" EDIT: worth mentioning that i'd increase ratios as you head north and still expect some locations to see double digit totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z ECMWF Reveal hidden contents LSE: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -14.2 -13.5 1022 49 100 0.01 543 526 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.8 -12.1 1021 75 97 0.22 543 528 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -13.2 -12.1 1021 83 83 0.14 544 529 MSN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.8 -11.0 1022 76 100 0.16 546 529 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.2 -9.2 1019 87 100 0.24 546 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.4 -10.1 1019 88 56 0.05 546 532 MKE: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.8 -12.8 1021 76 98 0.09 546 530 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.1 -9.4 1018 87 98 0.31 547 533 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.0 -9.0 1017 84 84 0.11 547 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.4 -8.1 1018 80 14 0.01 548 534 SBM: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -9.9 -14.5 1022 70 100 0.05 543 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.1 -12.5 1019 84 98 0.22 544 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.6 -11.7 1019 82 64 0.05 544 530 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.9 -10.5 1019 82 18 0.00 546 532 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.2 -8.3 1021 69 21 0.01 551 534 CID: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -11.8 -7.3 1020 56 99 0.01 551 536 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.4 -5.0 1017 59 85 0.03 551 538 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.7 -5.7 1016 77 76 0.01 550 538 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.8 -6.6 1018 82 52 0.01 550 536 DVN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.5 -4.7 1017 47 79 0.03 551 538 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.6 -4.3 1016 67 79 0.02 551 539 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.1 -4.8 1016 79 69 0.01 550 537 PIA: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.2 -1.1 1014 60 73 0.01 553 542 RFD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.8 -8.0 1020 74 98 0.12 549 534 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.9 -6.4 1017 85 100 0.12 549 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.7 -6.6 1016 90 81 0.04 549 536 ORD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.7 -8.0 1020 71 100 0.09 550 534 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.8 -5.8 1017 83 99 0.11 550 537 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.1 -5.4 1015 86 90 0.06 549 537 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.2 -5.5 1016 82 25 0.01 550 537 MDW: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.2 -7.4 1020 65 99 0.07 550 535 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.4 -4.7 1017 72 94 0.08 551 538 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.7 -4.5 1015 80 88 0.05 550 538 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 -5.1 1016 81 33 0.01 551 538 DEC: SAT 00Z 21-JAN 1.0 2.9 1012 62 75 0.01 557 548 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.3 2.6 1011 89 64 0.14 555 546 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 -0.2 1014 74 54 0.01 554 543 VPZ: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.0 -6.6 1020 54 100 0.04 551 536 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.8 -2.6 1017 62 87 0.04 552 539 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.5 -2.8 1015 78 96 0.05 551 540 LAF: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.9 2.3 1012 80 94 0.05 554 545 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 0.3 1013 81 63 0.03 553 543 IND: SAT 06Z 21-JAN 0.2 5.4 1010 93 96 0.13 557 549 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.7 2.9 1012 90 60 0.11 555 546 OKK: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.2 -0.4 1016 49 60 0.01 555 543 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.3 2.1 1012 81 100 0.06 554 544 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.2 0.2 1013 84 72 0.05 553 543 FWA: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.1 -1.7 1018 61 83 0.04 554 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.4 0.4 1014 79 98 0.06 553 542 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.4 -0.9 1014 87 77 0.09 552 542 DAY: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -1.2 0.6 1017 51 64 0.01 558 544 SAT 06Z 21-JAN 0.2 6.4 1011 85 93 0.04 557 548 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -0.7 4.5 1010 93 82 0.26 556 548 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 0.8 3.5 1014 85 55 0.01 557 546 CMH: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -1.4 -0.1 1018 49 77 0.01 557 543 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -0.3 5.4 1013 78 90 0.03 557 547 SAT 12Z 21-JAN 0.7 4.2 1009 93 83 0.15 556 549 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 3.2 4.1 1012 80 61 0.02 557 547 TDZ: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.7 -5.8 1020 72 100 0.09 552 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.2 -1.8 1016 82 98 0.09 552 539 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.4 -2.3 1014 91 95 0.18 551 540 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -2.2 -1.4 1017 80 8 0.01 554 541 CLE: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -3.8 -6.4 1021 64 100 0.03 552 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.4 -1.3 1016 81 98 0.09 552 540 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.7 -1.1 1013 92 99 0.28 552 542 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -0.5 -0.2 1015 85 34 0.06 554 542 MKG: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.2 -12.8 1022 67 100 0.02 544 527 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.3 -9.7 1020 83 99 0.23 546 530 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.0 -8.7 1019 85 93 0.14 546 532 GRR: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.2 -11.8 1022 53 100 0.01 545 528 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.1 -8.9 1020 82 100 0.20 547 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.5 -7.4 1018 87 97 0.18 547 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -11.7 -7.9 1018 87 23 0.02 548 534 BTL: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.6 -10.5 1022 48 100 0.01 547 530 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.4 -7.0 1020 78 99 0.20 549 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.1 -5.4 1017 87 99 0.18 549 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.6 -6.5 1017 87 53 0.03 549 536 ADG: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.4 -6.6 1021 76 100 0.13 551 535 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.7 -3.5 1017 87 99 0.15 551 538 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.8 -3.9 1015 89 82 0.09 550 538 DTW: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.7 -8.6 1022 76 99 0.10 549 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.5 -4.9 1017 89 99 0.22 549 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -6.0 -5.1 1016 89 84 0.10 549 537 PHN: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -9.8 -11.6 1023 80 100 0.05 546 528 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.8 -7.2 1019 88 100 0.21 547 532 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.6 -7.4 1017 88 76 0.07 547 534 YKF: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.3 -13.6 1024 66 100 0.01 544 525 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.1 -10.5 1021 85 100 0.12 545 528 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -6.2 -8.3 1017 91 87 0.08 545 532 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.8 -6.0 1018 76 14 0.01 548 534 YYZ: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.8 -12.4 1022 80 99 0.10 544 527 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.1 -9.6 1018 83 90 0.09 545 531 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.4 -7.2 1019 76 15 0.02 547 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think 3-5" right now is a solid call for Metro Area and Chicagoland. It's a good middle ground starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sweet, 0.08" of -ZR. Next. Nice hit for LSE-MSN-MKE on east to MI. Not awful for ORD either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:20 PM, Chicago Storm said: 12z ECMWF Thanks for posting these by the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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