Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:07 PM, snowstormcanuck said: It's all good. I was just breaking balls. At least the NAM says you don't leave the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:09 PM, Chicago WX said: Meh, 0.10" liquid total. 900mb temps at 6C should wash down quite nicely. Flirting with plain rain is fine with me, don't need no zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The Clown map from the NAM is going to be LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:20 PM, blue60007 said: Flirting with plain rain is fine with me, don't need no zr That's my call. Hoosier hates it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:22 PM, Chicago WX said: That's my call. Hoosier hates it though. It's a nail biter. Moving one grid point north/south on the twisterdata soundings makes the difference between a sufficient cold layer for zr or not. Not that I'm rooting for zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:22 PM, Chicago WX said: That's my call. Hoosier hates it though. You're calling for plain rain on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:30 PM, Alek said: You're calling for plain rain on this one? No. I'm just doing it to spite/troll Hoosier. He wants ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:37 PM, Chicago WX said: No. I'm just doing it to spite/troll Hoosier. He wants ice. How about our first place Illini? 12z GFS rolling out now, will it go into flip flop madness mode or hold steady? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think the GFS will be Alek's friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:45 PM, gosaints said: I think the GFS will be Alek's friend. The 6z ensembles showed that it was zeroing in on a solution and you can already tell by 24 hrs out that it won't as warm as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:42 PM, Alek said: How about our first place Illini? 12z GFS rolling out now, will it go into flip flop madness mode or hold steady? Better not flop against PSU tomorrow night. GFS gonna tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 PSU is one man show. Even my Gophers beat them pretty good. STOP FRAZIER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12Z NAM looks awesome for here! Southern Wisconsin and southern 1/2 of Michigan win the prize according to it. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GFS is looking fairly moist but very similar overall to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:37 PM, Chicago WX said: No. I'm just doing it to spite/troll Hoosier. He wants ice. Why on earth would he want ice? Just because it's some wintry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Definetly south of the NAM, much less precip for me but would probably be extreme fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:59 PM, Mottster said: Why on earth would he want ice? Just because it's some wintry? They guy likes mixed events. Eh, it'll be a light event anyway...and if the NAM is right , it melts off fairly quickly. 12z GFS looks nice for I-80 north. Steady wins the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:02 PM, Chicago WX said: They guy likes mixed events. Eh, it'll be a light event anyway...and if the NAM is right , it melts off fairly quickly. 12z GFS looks nice for I-80 north. Steady wins the race. The 12z/6z runs were remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Loving the 12z GFS(although it's pretty similar to previous runs). All the models have a couple inches falling here, but most have us on the southern edge. A little shift south would ramp up my total nicely. A 4.4 inch total would put my week total at a foot, after only 0.1" through Jan 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS a little drier then 06Z for SEMI. still a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:04 PM, Alek said: The 12z/6z runs were remarkably similar. Pretty similar to 0z too, though a bit quicker. +1 for consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Jon dee's thoughts on a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Compare, contrast. 48 hour totals through 0z Sunday. 12z NAM 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:12 PM, Chicago WX said: Compare, contrast. I guess it's not shocking that the NAM would be that wet given how strong the WAA is on that run . Either way if the GGEM and Euro maintain the consistency that the GFS is starting to show, i'll be severly discounting the NAM in my afternoon first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 la crosse talked about a January 2008 storm in their discussion. That was the coolest fluff storm I had ever seen. I think I ended up with 40:1 ratios. That storm was not this moist though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:19 PM, gosaints said: la crosse talked about a January 2008 storm in their discussion. That was the coolest fluff storm I had ever seen. I think I ended up with 40:1 ratios. That storm was not this moist though. Ratios will be extreme especially on the northern fringe, which is part of the reason why I think 12" is in play for someone...right now i'm favoring Southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 So, at least in terms of the GL, the NAM loves S Wisconsin, the GFS loves N Illinois, and the 0z Euro loved both. Who will win out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Its not everyday that some areas that are gonna see .2 QPF reach warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ratio chart: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:22 PM, wisconsinwx said: So, at least in terms of the GL, the NAM loves S Wisconsin, the GFS loves N Illinois, and the 0z Euro loved both. Who will win out? Looking at the entire model picture (9z SREF spreads, GFS, NAM, last nights Euro and GGEM), within 20-30 miles either side of the WI/IL border is looking best right now. FWIW a closer look at the GFS precip, some .50 popping up in I-80 land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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