Jan 20th snow event

[A-L-E-K]

  On 1/17/2012 at 4:57 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

from LOT

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A

STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A

POSSIBLE STRONGLY FORCED FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS WOULD

ALSO LIKELY BE FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND 20 TO 1 OR POSSIBLY HIGHER IN

SOME AREAS AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK COLD. BUFFER

SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SUGGEST AN INCREDIBLY DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC

GROWTH LAYER...FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 550MB. THIS COULD

SET UP EFFICIENT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION.

Nice, from what i'm seeing, the high ratio talk is much more deserved for the time being than during the previous event.

[Thundersnow12]

Holy sh*t they weren't kidding! This is off the 0z GFS, 12z run not as favorable for this deep of a DGZ

[BowMeHunter]

be interesting to see if the euro keeps it south and dryer.. doubt it but prob a bad idea to doubt it.. just seemed a little fishy of a run

[Chicago WX]

12z GGEM loves eastern IA to northern IL...dropping a bullseye of 0.51" over NW IL from hour 72 to 84.

http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html

0z Euro should be thrown aside, as the consensus seems to favor the corridor from I-80 north to MKE.

[Stevo6899]

12z GGEM looks like the gfs and came in further north from the 0z run.

[Thunder Road]

Canadian is even wetter. 10mm (0.40") or more for much of Chicagoland.

[A-L-E-K]

  On 1/17/2012 at 5:20 PM, Chicago WX said:

12z GGEM loves eastern IA to northern IL...dropping a bullseye of 0.51" over NW IL from hour 72 to 84.

http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html

0z Euro should be thrown aside, as the consensus seems to favor the corridor from I-80 north to MKE.

good stuff

[A-L-E-K]

Added bonus that surface winds should be relatively light with this one.

[dmc76]

  On 1/17/2012 at 5:23 PM, Alek said:

good stuff

I-94 Special!

[WestMichigan]

Looks like we might get some snow to replace what we lost over the last day and a half. Synoptic snows are much nicer than LES because everyone gets in on the act, but I won't complain about the LES either.

[tuanis]

I'm wishing this one north to snow-starved Minnesota as I'll be up there for a hopeful snowmobiling trip this weekend... there's no snow to be found in central MN in mid-January!

[beavis1729]

  On 1/17/2012 at 5:31 PM, tuanis said:

I'm wishing this one north to snow-starved Minnesota as I'll be up there for a hopeful snowmobiling trip this weekend... there's no snow to be found in central MN in mid-January!

Try northern WI (Eagle River area) if you get a chance. I was there this past weekend; they have pretty good trail conditions.

[SpartyOn]

  On 1/17/2012 at 5:28 PM, dmc76 said:

I-94 Special!

Most def. Nice solid event event along that corridor. This esspecially true for the DTW crew. I would be a touch nervous if I lived to far north or south on this one.

[Chicago WX]

12z Ukie looks like it'll be coming in relatively hot...maps through 72 hours linked below.

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet

[A-L-E-K]

a couple clunkers but relatively good consensus here

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f84.gif

[Hoosier]

Quite a bit of shifting in the past couple runs although not as much with the GGEM.

[Hoosier]

Much of the precip with this system should be snow but there are some indications of a band of light icing on the southern end.

[Stebo]

Looks like the 00z runs last night were a bit of an aberration as the 06/12z runs have all trended back Northward to run along I-80 and North.

[Ajdos]

Hm Euro..

[Hoosier]

Euro back north...best area I-80 northward.

[Thundersnow12]

  On 1/17/2012 at 6:22 PM, Hoosier said:

Euro back north...best area I-80 northward.

Still not as wet as the Euro. .25" at DPA.

[A-L-E-K]

the Euro maintaining a drier event is a cause for concern.

[Stebo]

  On 1/17/2012 at 6:33 PM, Alek said:

the Euro maintaining a drier event is a cause for concern.

Of course it can't be easy, this is meteorology after all. Can't have all models lock in .25-.50 with 15 to 20:1 ratios.

[A-L-E-K]

  On 1/17/2012 at 6:40 PM, Stebo48858 said:

Of course it can't be easy, this is meteorology after all. Can't all lock in .25-.50 with 15 to 20:1 ratios.

Sure, it just seems locked in on a drier overall solution (not so much talking about IMBY) and it does better overall at QPF without the tendency to inflate like the NAM.

[PatrickSumner]

Looks like LAF and OKK will miss this one for the most part. Boo....

[dmc76]

What we looking at QPF for the DTW area.. Roughly?

[Ajdos]

Euro seems to be alright, but then once it hits Michigan it starts weakening..then leaves Michigan starts intensifying.. lol

[Ajdos]

  On 1/17/2012 at 6:46 PM, dmc76 said:

What we looking at QPF for the DTW area.. Roughly?

.25-all snow

[Chicago WX]

2-5" north of I-80 seems like a reasonable call at this stage. Euro remains stingier, but 0.25" could fluff up...if ratios work out of course.

[Chicago Storm]

12zECMWF

  Reveal hidden contents

LSE:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -11.5   -12.0    1023	  62	 100    0.07	 544	 526   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -12.1   -10.5    1021	  81	  96    0.09	 545	 529   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN -11.9   -10.7    1022	  82	  89    0.01	 546	 529

MSN:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.4   -11.4    1025	  62	 100    0.05	 545	 527   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -11.6    -8.5    1022	  83	  99    0.16	 547	 531   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -9.9    -9.0    1020	  88	  91    0.03	 548	 532   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -9.9    -8.0    1020	  88	  43    0.01	 550	 535

MKE:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -9.8   -12.4    1025	  56	 100    0.02	 545	 526   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.6    -9.0    1021	  82	  99    0.16	 547	 531   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6    -8.7    1019	  85	  97    0.05	 548	 533   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.9    -7.7    1018	  84	  53    0.02	 550	 536   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -2.7    -5.5    1019	  75	  20    0.01	 553	 538

SBM:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.0   -11.3    1023	  79	  99    0.08	 544	 527   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.7   -11.1    1020	  81	  98    0.02	 545	 529   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -7.7   -10.6    1020	  82	  69    0.01	 547	 532   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -3.7    -7.7    1020	  73	  32    0.01	 550	 535

CID:

 
FRI 12Z 20-JAN -12.7    -8.0    1023	  50	  99    0.01	 549	 532   
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.0    -6.4    1021	  76	  92    0.12	 551	 535   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.6    -5.0    1019	  80	  89    0.02	 551	 537

DVN:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -8.7    -6.1    1022	  69	  91    0.10	 552	 535   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.2    -3.9    1019	  76	  92    0.03	 552	 538   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.1    -4.5    1018	  80	  64    0.01	 552	 538

PIA:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -4.9    -4.0    1021	  45	  84    0.03	 554	 538   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.9    -1.7    1018	  50	  68    0.01	 555	 541   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.6    -1.1    1017	  65	  89    0.01	 554	 541

RFD:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN -10.5    -9.0    1024	  69	 100    0.09	 549	 530   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.4    -6.3    1020	  85	 100    0.15	 550	 534   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.6    -6.7    1019	  88	  95    0.03	 550	 535

ORD:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.8    -9.2    1024	  68	  99    0.04	 549	 531   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.6    -5.8    1020	  84	 100    0.18	 551	 535   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.6    -6.1    1019	  87	  99    0.06	 550	 536   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.7    -4.1    1017	  88	  28    0.01	 552	 539

MDW:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -6.3    -8.7    1023	  65	  99    0.04	 550	 531   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.4    -5.1    1020	  80	  95    0.15	 551	 536   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.4    -5.1    1018	  83	  99    0.06	 551	 537   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.3    -3.3    1017	  86	  30    0.01	 553	 539

DEC:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -1.2	 0.5    1016	  46	  56    0.01	 557	 544   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.7	 1.5    1015	  73	  91    0.04	 556	 544   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -3.0	 1.7    1015	  78	  55    0.03	 557	 545

VPZ:

 
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  -5.6    -8.3    1024	  53	 100    0.01	 550	 532   
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.0    -4.1    1021	  76	  92    0.11	 552	 536   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.1    -3.3    1018	  82	 100    0.06	 552	 538   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -6.9    -1.9    1017	  87	  38    0.01	 553	 540

LAF:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.8    -1.1    1019	  47	  66    0.01	 555	 540   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -2.3	 0.9    1016	  72	  98    0.05	 555	 542   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.6    -0.2    1016	  82	  67    0.06	 556	 544

IND:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -0.9	 3.3    1015	  70	  88    0.03	 557	 545   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -1.2	 2.3    1015	  90	  79    0.12	 557	 546

OKK:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -3.5    -1.9    1020	  52	  79    0.02	 555	 539   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -2.7	 0.6    1017	  70	  98    0.04	 554	 541   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.8    -0.3    1016	  83	  75    0.09	 556	 543

FWA:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.2    -3.7    1022	  65	  98    0.07	 553	 536   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.1    -0.9    1018	  76	  97    0.06	 553	 539   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -3.7    -1.6    1017	  84	  83    0.07	 554	 541

HAO:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -0.7	 4.0    1016	  72	  85    0.03	 558	 545   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN   0.3	 4.2    1014	  93	  99    0.08	 559	 548   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   4.0	 5.3    1014	  83	  71    0.03	 560	 549

DAY:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -2.0    -1.1    1021	  46	  91    0.01	 557	 540   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.6	 2.4    1017	  63	  88    0.03	 556	 543   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -1.0	 2.9    1015	  90	  96    0.10	 557	 545   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   2.7	 3.7    1014	  83	  64    0.07	 559	 547

CMH:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -1.3	 1.0    1018	  56	  99    0.02	 556	 541   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -0.6	 2.8    1015	  92	  94    0.15	 557	 545   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   2.4	 3.9    1014	  87	  79    0.03	 559	 547

TDZ:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -5.2    -7.6    1024	  63	 100    0.04	 551	 532   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -4.5    -4.2    1020	  83	  99    0.16	 551	 536   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.9    -3.4    1018	  89	  95    0.09	 552	 538

CLE:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -4.1    -8.6    1025	  57	 100    0.01	 551	 531   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -3.8    -3.5    1021	  80	  99    0.12	 552	 536   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -2.9    -2.8    1017	  88	  98    0.14	 552	 539   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN   0.9    -0.4    1016	  80	  58    0.01	 555	 542

MKG:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.8   -10.5    1023	  82	  98    0.10	 546	 528   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -6.9    -8.2    1021	  85	  97    0.05	 547	 531   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -9.3    -7.7    1019	  87	  62    0.02	 549	 534

GRR:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.9    -9.9    1023	  85	  99    0.09	 547	 529   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.6    -7.5    1021	  87	  98    0.06	 547	 531   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN -10.4    -6.9    1019	  89	  67    0.03	 549	 534

BTL:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -7.2    -8.2    1023	  77	  99    0.11	 549	 531   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -7.1    -6.1    1020	  85	  99    0.11	 549	 533   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -7.0    -5.3    1018	  88	  65    0.03	 551	 536

ADG:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.5    -8.0    1024	  66	 100    0.06	 550	 531   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6    -4.8    1020	  87	  99    0.16	 550	 535   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.1    -4.4    1018	  89	  90    0.07	 551	 537

DTW:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -6.6    -9.8    1025	  66	 100    0.03	 548	 529   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -5.7    -5.5    1021	  85	  99    0.14	 549	 533   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -4.9    -5.4    1019	  87	  96    0.08	 550	 536

PHN:

 
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  -8.2   -11.7    1025	  65	 100    0.01	 545	 526   
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.1    -8.8    1023	  80	  99    0.06	 547	 530   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -6.7    -7.3    1020	  85	  97    0.04	 548	 533

YKF:

 
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  -8.0   -11.2    1024	  61	  98    0.01	 544	 526   
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -7.2    -9.3    1021	  78	  97    0.03	 546	 529

YYZ:

 
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  -5.0   -10.4    1021	  73	  97    0.02	 545	 528   
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  -2.1    -7.5    1020	  71	  79    0.01	 547	 532