Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Even though this possible system isn't even close to coming onshore yet, all the models are in a pretty good agreement in bringing a low amplitude wave running through the mean flow and across an impressive baroclinic zone resulting in a decent WSW-ESE snow band from the plains into the lakes region. The 12z Euro actually came in really wet giving southern WI a 6-10" snowfall. The GEM and GFS are further south and a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Although there isn't much of a Gulf connection, looks like a decent setup with tight thermal gradient as you said. These are usually good for a band or two of heavy snow. 12z Euro looks good especially north of I-80 but was messy down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Although there isn't much of a Gulf connection, looks like a decent setup with tight thermal gradient as you said. These are usually good for a band or two of heavy snow. 12z Euro looks good especially north of I-80 but was messy down this way. Yeah still manages to dump about 4" or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Although there isn't much of a Gulf connection, looks like a decent setup with tight thermal gradient as you said. These are usually good for a band or two of heavy snow. 12z Euro looks good especially north of I-80 but was messy down this way. Nice hit for WI. Looks wet here. All I know is I want no part of s****. Yes, I put asterisks up...it's a five letter bad word to me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looking good for this area. Euro is really bullish on snowfall amounts. Looks like an active week of winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This system actually has allot of potential. It will be interesting watching the models dance with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Nice hit for WI. Looks wet here. All I know is I want no part of s****. Yes, I put asterisks up...it's a five letter bad word to me now. Lol, yes, I could go a lifetime without seeing sleet. Euro looks very borderline....the 32F line basically straddles us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Watch this storm fail miserably. lol Although this is probaly the best chance we have had all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The GFS Ensembles have it on the Map. Some further south and weaker, but some look very similar to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 More like Jan 20-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18Z GFS 1-70 special that will never happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18Z GFS 1-70 special that will never happen. lol That's actually a preceding storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31912-january-19th-clipper/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 That's actually a preceding storm http://www.americanw...y-19th-clipper/ I dunno. Maybe not. Both look good for your area. When you made that post though GFS on NCEP was only out to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 18Z GFS 1-70 special that will never happen. lol What's the point of posting if you are going to say stuff like that each time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The GFS looks to suppressed. The pattern needs to be more zonal. That could be why it isn't as warm afterwords like it should be either. Some of the ECMWF ensembles really lift the overrunning frozen precip to I-80 north fwiw. I haven't been keeping track but are the same biases still in play as previous winters....gfs always too far southeast, euro always right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro has had this system now for about 3 days and really hasn't deviated off the track much at all either. It could be a nice hit for those along and North of I-80. This is the first system all year where I am modestly excited about the potential for the region/locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro has had this system now for about 3 days and really hasn't deviated off the track much at all either. It could be a nice hit for those along and North of I-80. This is the first system all year where I am modestly excited about the potential for the region/locally. Same here. Lets hope for the EURO to be consistent for another 2-3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The Euro and GEM look very similar. EURO has the most moisture and continues to show southern WI and northern IL in the thick of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Tons of potential with this event, NWS offices really downplaying it though. Surface temps look very cold too, could be a very nice powder event for some/many. Its just depressing knowing what is waiting in the wings a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro has had this system now for about 3 days and really hasn't deviated off the track much at all either. It could be a nice hit for those along and North of I-80. This is the first system all year where I am modestly excited about the potential for the region/locally. Agree. The EURO/GEM have been consistent and the GFS has waffled from about the U.P. to I-70, so all in all as good of shape as you can be in this far out. Consistency is both exciting and scary 4 days out. Whats funny is weve already had 10 inches of snow and it certainly doesnt feel like it, and this event looks to melt a few days later with the warmup. This winter could be one where you sit back in April and look at the season total and say wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Agree. The EURO/GEM have been consistent and the GFS has waffled from about the U.P. to I-70, so all in all as good of shape as you can be in this far out. Consistency is both exciting and scary 4 days out. Whats funny is weve already had 10 inches of snow and it certainly doesnt feel like it, and this event looks to melt a few days later with the warmup. This winter could be one where you sit back in April and look at the season total and say wtf? Well now I wouldn't get this confident yet either, there is still a range of solutions out there. Plus like you said it is 4 days out, things can/have changed before. Thus my modest excitement at the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Well now I wouldn't get this confident yet either, there is still a range of solutions out there. Plus like you said it is 4 days out, things can/have changed before. Thus my modest excitement at the potential. Oh trust me Im not too confident. I know as well as anybody how the models surprise and disappoint, and 4 days might as well be a lifetime in model-land. But with so much consistency, however, I am confident that SOMEONE will get some good snow out of this. I say this now and watch all the models take it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 My local forecast has a 50% of snow for Friday. This morning it was 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GFS would be far from terrible: Actually, it would easily be the biggest event of the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 0z GFS is a good run for many around here, ratios would be high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Bah, even if that suppressed track were to verify, looks like a pretty good setup for E-wind LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 give me any other support for the gfs and I might actually think about beginning to maybe consider it's solution as an outside possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Bah, even if that suppressed track were to verify, looks like a pretty good setup for E-wind LES. The GFS is on an island with its track, the NAM even is further north by a substantial margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The GFS is on an island with its track, the NAM even is further north by a substantial margin. Long range NAM... EDIT: Not saying the GFS is any better, however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If the Euro looked like the GFS I'd be a very happy guy. I suspect it will remain north though. The sharp cutoff on amounts along the southern edge will make for some nail biting for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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