Rainshadow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Even yesterday's 12Z run suggest 3-5 I think. Oh well, I know I expected a bit more cooling of the BL and it just didn't happen. If it was 32 this AM instead of 33 (per their Davis), my parents could've had at least 2". We got about half the precip the 12z nam was forecasting yesterday. 0.19" w/e for 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 lesson learned? don't always run to the highest QPF model especially if it's a single run of it. There were a couple of guys on Guarino's site who were talking up 5-10 in Jersey and 6" in Philly from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 especially if it's a single run of it. There were a couple of guys on Guarino's site who were talking up 5-10 in Jersey and 6" in Philly from this. i stopped reading when i saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 i stopped reading when i saw that. I needed a good lol for the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I used to always whip up the weenies over there into a frenzy. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I needed a good lol for the day... That site always comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I think that can be done at the expense of the GFS! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmH56ypfFeA&feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 0.18" precip for 1.0" of snow... 5.5:1 ratio. Blech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 0.18" precip for 1.0" of snow... 5.5:1 ratio. Blech. .21 on 1.3 lol bl issues ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 .21 on 1.3 lol bl issues ftw Yeah that may have been the longest I have seen it snow for such a small accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 looks as if the euro had the idea on the qph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. So how's this forecast working out? "Anyway, the Euro control run produces a massive snowstorm here on Monday the 13th. It starts developing a low in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday of next week then starts bringing it up the coast on Saturday in a dual barrel structure with one low near the North Carolina Coast at 192 hrs and one near Tallahassee Florida. The wave near the North Carolina Coast moves out to sea and stays safely south of us but the wave over Tallahassee procees to near Cape Hatteras at 210 hrs, with precipitation on our doorstep. Then it appears to be safely sliding out to sea at 222 hrs with only light snow here, then it starts to interact with a trailing wave over the Southern Appalachians that starts pulling it back in toward the DelMarva with light snow continue and it also starts deepening the low to a 1002 mb as the snow starts to increase in intensity. It then pulls the low back to just off of Atlantic City at 234 hrs as a 996mb with moderate snow falling from a Trenton to Asbury Park North line, and possibly changing to rain along the south shore of Long Island. It then starts pulling the low slowly NNE to just south of Long Island and deepens it to a 240 hrs with moderate snow falling in the same locations previously mentioned. Then at 246 hrs. the low has moved to the Benchmark and has deepened to 984mbs with moderate snow continuing to fall in wrap-around fashion throughout our area. The precip finally ends by 252 hrs. as the low has moved to Nova Scotia. It looks like total snowfall amounts would be around a foot as there would be around or just more than an inch of total precip. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Honestly guys, it is worth getting a trial free subscription to Accuweather Pro just to see this. The control run sometimes keys in on things that the operational run does not. You see how close it was today if things worked out just a little differently we could have gotten nailed. The control run of the Euro showed today's potential a week ago very nicely, although things did not come together perfectly. I can tell you that I only watch the control run to see if it is vastly different than the operational run. The control run is like 001 of the GFS ensembles. It is usually very much like the operational run, but when things look very different on the control run it is often a sign that there is potential. It of course does not mean it will work out, but when the control run is vastly different, it is at least a sign that there is potential and that it would only take very small changes to the operational run to produce vastly different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It didn't but that does not mean that this one won't does it? Models showed varied solutions on each run. It shows the potential, just as last week's model run did. They don't always work out. The point is that the potential is there, just as it was today. So how's this forecast working out? "Anyway, the Euro control run produces a massive snowstorm here on Monday the 13th. It starts developing a low in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday of next week then starts bringing it up the coast on Saturday in a dual barrel structure with one low near the North Carolina Coast at 192 hrs and one near Tallahassee Florida. The wave near the North Carolina Coast moves out to sea and stays safely south of us but the wave over Tallahassee procees to near Cape Hatteras at 210 hrs, with precipitation on our doorstep. Then it appears to be safely sliding out to sea at 222 hrs with only light snow here, then it starts to interact with a trailing wave over the Southern Appalachians that starts pulling it back in toward the DelMarva with light snow continue and it also starts deepening the low to a 1002 mb as the snow starts to increase in intensity. It then pulls the low back to just off of Atlantic City at 234 hrs as a 996mb with moderate snow falling from a Trenton to Asbury Park North line, and possibly changing to rain along the south shore of Long Island. It then starts pulling the low slowly NNE to just south of Long Island and deepens it to a 240 hrs with moderate snow falling in the same locations previously mentioned. Then at 246 hrs. the low has moved to the Benchmark and has deepened to 984mbs with moderate snow continuing to fall in wrap-around fashion throughout our area. The precip finally ends by 252 hrs. as the low has moved to Nova Scotia. It looks like total snowfall amounts would be around a foot as there would be around or just more than an inch of total precip. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It didn't but that does not mean that this one won't does it? Models showed varied solutions on each run. It shows the potential, just as last week's model run did. They don't always work out. The point is that the potential is there, just as it was today. So then why are you sharing it in this thread? Storm potential a week out should be discussed in the medium range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 That was also a forecast for 234 hrs out, this is closer in already at 192 hrs. Each model run is different. It does however show the potential. It is not a forecast, it is a model run. So how's this forecast working out? "Anyway, the Euro control run produces a massive snowstorm here on Monday the 13th. It starts developing a low in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday of next week then starts bringing it up the coast on Saturday in a dual barrel structure with one low near the North Carolina Coast at 192 hrs and one near Tallahassee Florida. The wave near the North Carolina Coast moves out to sea and stays safely south of us but the wave over Tallahassee procees to near Cape Hatteras at 210 hrs, with precipitation on our doorstep. Then it appears to be safely sliding out to sea at 222 hrs with only light snow here, then it starts to interact with a trailing wave over the Southern Appalachians that starts pulling it back in toward the DelMarva with light snow continue and it also starts deepening the low to a 1002 mb as the snow starts to increase in intensity. It then pulls the low back to just off of Atlantic City at 234 hrs as a 996mb with moderate snow falling from a Trenton to Asbury Park North line, and possibly changing to rain along the south shore of Long Island. It then starts pulling the low slowly NNE to just south of Long Island and deepens it to a 240 hrs with moderate snow falling in the same locations previously mentioned. Then at 246 hrs. the low has moved to the Benchmark and has deepened to 984mbs with moderate snow continuing to fall in wrap-around fashion throughout our area. The precip finally ends by 252 hrs. as the low has moved to Nova Scotia. It looks like total snowfall amounts would be around a foot as there would be around or just more than an inch of total precip. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Because this is considered banter for just the reasons you mention. It would not be permitted in the other threads. So then why are you sharing it in this thread? Storm potential a week out should be discussed in the medium range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Because this is considered banter for just the reasons you mention. It would not be permitted in the other threads. Glad to know that in truth, you believe it just as much as I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 That was also a forecast for 234 hrs out, this is closer in already at 192 hrs. Each model run is different. It does however show the potential. It is not a forecast, it is a model run. get a grip with reality please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. You must be new to this. Do you have any idea how times models show storms that disappear? Why are you hyping one model run that is a week away? It means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Aren't we all here for the same reason? We are hoping for a big storm. When a model shows something big wouldn't you want to hear about it, or should I keep it a secret? I am definitely not new to this. The control run of the Euro is just one more model tool that can be used to help show storm potential. You must be new to this. Do you have any idea how times models show storms that disappear? Why are you hyping one model run that is a week away? It means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Interestingly, people were saying this to me back in October too. get a grip with reality please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Interestingly, people were saying this to me back in October too. I know what you mean. The potential is there and you want to believe but there is so much negativity in the reliability of these weather models right now for our region that it is like talking to the wall. Do not give up. I warn as well about potentials. I can tell you right now that the potential for a significant drought and groundwater shortages exist for our entire region this summer. The lack of snow and snow cover is not a laughing matter and many businesses and resident rely on ground water. There should be more talk right now on this board about the significant precip as a whole. We are not only in a snow drought but a rain drought the last few months Where are the analogs for that on this subforum? Posts like it "its a tundra" is correct. The soil profile is not even completely frozen and meanwhile the moisture is being sucked right out of it. That is not good for the varieties of vegetation in our area. Unless we get significant precip (snow or rain) in the next four - eight weeks, drought watches will be issued by May because the recharge cycle will be lost for the summer months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Aren't we all here for the same reason? We are hoping for a big storm. When a model shows something big wouldn't you want to hear about it, or should I keep it a secret? I am definitely not new to this. The control run of the Euro is just one more model tool that can be used to help show storm potential. Good post. Keep in mind also....the larger storms have almost always been modeled a week out on the Euro and/or the GFS so this is a decent signal imo. Maybe not this year, but still a decent signal for a KU-type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I like this sub forum...going to try and post in here more....light flake falling....last night had a trace from a snow shower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I like this sub forum...going to try and post in here more....light flake falling....last night had a trace from a snow shower... Thanks. Some nice snow showers across northern Jerz. I bet its a fun ride on I-78 near the Delaware River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Thanks. Some nice snow showers across northern Jerz. I bet its a fun ride on I-78 near the Delaware River. Np.....good burst of snow here...nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I needed a good lol for the day... Not to put u in the spotlight, but I have followed ur site since I was in high school....been very informative and top notch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Np.....good burst of snow here...nice to see it is coming down a decent clip with the wind blowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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