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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV Banter thread


NortheastPAWx

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Very nice day (with the exception of the strong breeze). Was able to get some yardwork done in preperation of the all the spring bulbs that will greet us in the weeks to come. Glad to hear others are suffering from muddy yards too. Can't wait for things to dry out.........in July. :)

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The low/mid level clouds that the NAM were trying to fire up for today for SE PA aren't there to the extent the model was calling for. I think Philly hits 70 today. Wouldn't shock me to see 75 in Millville or Hammonton.

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The low/mid level clouds that the NAM were trying to fire up for today for SE PA aren't there to the extent the model was calling for. I think Philly hits 70 today. Wouldn't shock me to see 75 in Millville or Hammonton.

The model bias with this is quite annoying; its like the JMA with winter storms, their only guidance is that it sounds the all clear when its not forecasting it to occur.

You think Jack is smiling about this past winter?

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The model bias with this is quite annoying; its like the JMA with winter storms, their only guidance is that it sounds the all clear when its not forecasting it to occur.

You think Jack is smiling about this past winter?

Jack probably is getting 80 and sun every day in his heaven. I'm sure he's enjoying his 365 days of warmth.

I was kinda concerned that the NAM would ultimately be right since the GFS was showing drizzle and similar setup down in SW Virginia (thought some of that would sneak up the east side of the Apps). Thankfully it looks like we'll at least get some sun through a good chunk of the day.

Too bad the record today is 80. :lol:

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Living in mushroom growing country, fire weather is always something we watch for. At least one or two manure\hay fires a season.

Even without significant snow melt I cannot envision reading the word drought. My yard as well it still absolutely saturated. I do not recall it being this way for this long of time, ever.

I still think we seeing the residual effects of the ridiculous 2011 rainfall. Rainfall totals were unprecedented in some areas and it takes quite a while evaporate that out of the ground. The increasing strength of the sun, lack of tree canopy (for now) and little chance for additional heavy rain should dry things out pretty quickly though I would think.

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Jack probably is getting 80 and sun every day in his heaven. I'm sure he's enjoying his 365 days of warmth.

I was kinda concerned that the NAM would ultimately be right since the GFS was showing drizzle and similar setup down in SW Virginia (thought some of that would sneak up the east side of the Apps). Thankfully it looks like we'll at least get some sun through a good chunk of the day.

Too bad the record today is 80. :lol:

I agree, I was concerned about this morning from an aviation perspective for a couple of days, because the gfs had it too.

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Anyone remember when PHL was last under a drought? I can't remember the summer/year.

Philadelphia county was under a drought watch Aug. 5, 2011 which quickly disappeared as the monsoon got underway. Drought warning for Philadelphia county was issued Sept. 16, 2010.

Looks like last drought emergency was Feb. 12, 2002 due to lack of winter snow (sounds familiar).

http://www.pabulletin.com/secure/data/vol32/32-8/291.html

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Philadelphia county was under a drought watch Aug. 5, 2011 which quickly disappeared as the monsoon got underway. Drought warning for Philadelphia county was issued Sept. 16, 2010.

Looks like last drought emergency was Feb. 12, 2002 due to lack of winter snow (sounds familiar).

http://www.pabulletin.com/secure/data/vol32/32-8/291.html

02' sounds familiar. I was thinking more summer long drought rather than a monthly drought. Thanks.

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My withdraw from the winter train wreck is officially over, what a gorgeous afternoon for some pick-up b-ball & tennis. Any late season winter surprise would not break my heart but at this point I'm all-in for the seasonal change from warm to warmer.

Some general tibits after reviewing the historically warm March records at Philly:

Though 1990 isn't one of the top 10 warmest on record the early 3/12-3/17 torch is arguably the most noteworthy warm MAR event, (5) consecutive 80 days & (6) consectutive 70 days look to be the longest on record. What's really interesting is that following the torch there were (3) measurable snowfall events

3 12 1990 83 48 0 0
3 13 1990 84 49 0 0
3 14 1990 85 49 0 0
3 15 1990 81 46 0 0
3 16 1990 80 58 -1 0
3 17 1990 76 51 85 0

1921 is the warmest MAR on record culminating with (3) straight days of 80 on 3/26-28, warmth however really came to an abrupt end on the 28th - must have been a pretty strong cold front blow through, 82 high & 36 low with a 46 degree spread is very impressive for this area, following day was cold with a low of 25 - sensitive foliage probably didn't appreciate that change

3 26 1921 80 56 0 0
3 27 1921 83 50 0 0
3 28 1921 82 36 16 0
3 29 1921 44 25 -1 -1

11 months make up the top 10 warmest March's on record:

- (4) yrs were followed by top 10 warm April's - 2010, 1977, 1921 & 1910

- (4) yrs had measurable snowfall the following April - 1921, 1903, 1898 & 2000

- (3) yrs had 90 degree weather the following April - 1977, 1929 & 1903

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Interesting, see text for almost all of the area tomorrow. I'll make a seperate thread for it if a Slight Risk gets issued.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF SERN CANADA INTO

THE NERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT

BEGINS TO DIG SEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL

UNDOUBTEDLY AID A MOISTENING PROCESS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE

DAY1 PERIOD THAT WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUESDAY.

IT APPEARS SFC DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO THE MID 50S BY MID DAY AHEAD

OF A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL ALIGN ITSELF ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE

APPALACHIANS FROM UPSTATE NY...SWWD INTO WRN VA. AS A

RESULT...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A VEERED

FLOW REGIME FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DIURNAL

DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IMPLIES THAT SUFFICIENT

INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AS TEMPERATURES

WARM TO NEAR 70F...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE NY BORDER AND WARMER OVER

THE DELMARVA. IF SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THE

AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT ISOLATED

STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EMERGE DURING

THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WILL INTRODUCE 5% PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS

SCENARIO.

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