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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV Banter thread


NortheastPAWx

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Tx for the 1.5 and 0.2 reports... expect more of the area today to receive bands of SW+... very large 925-700MB lapse rates and a weak trough in the sfc pres pattern fm vcnty pwm-har... this moves off the coast tonight. NAM not v good with convection qpf and 12z run still dry. HRRR seems to be best on this showing nice ese-wnw bands ...not perfect placement but good enough. NSSL WRF and SPC WRF from 00z/25 missed this snow shower event. some of the global models had better indicators including 00z/25 ECMWF/GFS

On the longer range banter and not going to continue w this here except to say... thinking that while its warm and general traditionally used pattern tools including EC ens, NAEFS week 2, PNA/NAO etc say warm... it can be warm on the non pcpn days and marginally cold enough for snow on the pcpn days. pattern has adjusted slightly in the last couple of weeks...seems like slightly clolder 500mb and better opportunities for snow N of 40 or 41N latitude. Wed-THU has been off and on and 00z/25 is on for snow most of the time kmpo-HP NJ..even at times down to KABE. obviously a long time to go... and maybe all the models will trend strongly inside from now on... but till they do... winter is not over at least for E PA and N 1/2 NJ for the next 10 days.

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Tx for the 1.5 and 0.2 reports... expect more of the area today to receive bands of SW+... very large 925-700MB lapse rates and a weak trough in the sfc pres pattern fm vcnty pwm-har... this moves off the coast tonight. NAM not v good with convection qpf and 12z run still dry. HRRR seems to be best on this showing nice ese-wnw bands ...not perfect placement but good enough. NSSL WRF and SPC WRF from 00z/25 missed this snow shower event. some of the global models had better indicators including 00z/25 ECMWF/GFS

On the longer range banter and not going to continue w this here except to say... thinking that while its warm and general traditionally used pattern tools including EC ens, NAEFS week 2, PNA/NAO etc say warm... it can be warm on the non pcpn days and marginally cold enough for snow on the pcpn days. pattern has adjusted slightly in the last couple of weeks...seems like slightly clolder 500mb and better opportunities for snow N of 40 or 41N latitude. Wed-THU has been off and on and 00z/25 is on for snow most of the time kmpo-HP NJ..even at times down to KABE. obviously a long time to go... and maybe all the models will trend strongly inside from now on... but till they do... winter is not over at least for E PA and N 1/2 NJ for the next 10 days.

Thanks for the update Walt.

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Thanks for the update Walt.

That is all I have around 10 days in Edison before a hectic work travel schedule for a month out west!

I will have a stop in Denver & SLC though where I am hopeful to see winter.

Hopefully this storm on the euro cuts up the apps as I will be in Cleveland, OH on Thursday and Friday next week.

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