A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You're freakin' me out with this optimism. Izzi just put out a statement expecting an inch or so down around I80, i think 1.5" is a reasonable call for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Izzi just put out a statement expecting an inch or so down around I80, i think 1.5" is a reasonable call for your area. I suppose...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 WANTED TO GET A COUPLE PRELIM THOUGHTS OUT PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOONDISCUSSION. PLAN TO MAKE RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW LOOKING QUITE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA...A QUICK HITTING INCH TO MAYBE TWO COULD RESULT IN ROADS TURNING INTO AN ABSOLUTE MESS VERY QUICKLY. OFTEN TIMES SEEMS THAT THESE MINOR SNOW EVENTS ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC AIR END UP BECOMING HIGHER IMPACT THAN MANY OF OUR 6+ INCH SNOWS...SO HAVE FIRED OUT AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT AND WILL WORK TO GET OUT A FORECAST/GRID UPDATE ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I like a dusting to 1" call for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Why is the forecasted high 34 for columbus tommorow?, the models I have seen show mid 20s it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 New Nam looks a little more exciting maybe a whopper with 1.5 inches instead of 1. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Alright, I'll cave...1-2" is my call for LAF. I did catch the end of Skilling's forecast on the noon broadcast, and the RPM had either 1.6" or 1.8" for IKK with tomorrow's action. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Final call for YYZ: 1" give or take a few 0.1s of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Alright, I'll cave...1-2" is my call for LAF. I did catch the end of Skilling's forecast on the noon broadcast, and the RPM had either 1.6" or 1.8" for IKK with tomorrow's action. FWIW. good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 my call is for 1.5" with this thing for LAF I like something around 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The warm tongue with this is pretty decent at 850 hPa, -3 °C over NW Iowa with much colder temps on each side. Light snow in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. I'm really hoping we get some flakes here. Maybe snowpack evaporation will provide some moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like no more than 1" here, I think .5" at best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The weather radio just rang. Lake effect snow warning for my neck of the woods. Talking about 50 mph winds. It will be a good day to call in hooky. I have been fighting off a cold for a few days now and don't few like going out into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gino makes a light snowfall sound exciting. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE LATE MORNING AFD UPDATE...GROWING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A FAIRLY STRONG F-GEN CIRCULATION IN THE 850-700MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CHANNELED VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A 90-100KT 500MB SPEED MAX. IN ADDITION...WRF-NAM AND HI-RES WRFS ACTUALLY SHOW A BIT OF JET COUPLING AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIRLY STRONG AND DEEP ASCENT. INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME AND EFFORT TO SATURATE...BUT ONCE THEY DO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BUT IMPRESSIVE PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/WRF-NAM BOTH SUGGEST MAXIMUM LIFT BECOMING CO-LOCATED WITH NEARLY 100MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES THOUGH THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE KEEPING AMOUNTS IN CHECK. HI-RES WRF-NMM (WHICH I`VE SEEN PERFORM WELL WITH F-GEN SET-UPS) SUGGESTS 0.10-0.20" OF QPF OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA WHICH COULD EASILY FLUFF UP TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW. PAVEMENT TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS COULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TOMORROW AND WITH LIMITED NOTICE ON THIS SNOWFALL IT COULD TURN INTO A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm bumping my LAF call to 1.5-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm bumping my LAF call to 1.5-2" Bold. With 15-25 MPH winds and high ratio fluff, it may be hard to get an accurate measurement. There will probably be reports of anywhere from a trace to 3", while in reality it will most likely be a swath of 1.5" or so through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nice DGZ forecast by the SREF tomorrow morning near LAF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gino makes a light snowfall sound exciting. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE LATE MORNING AFD UPDATE...GROWING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A FAIRLY STRONG F-GEN CIRCULATION IN THE 850-700MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CHANNELED VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A 90-100KT 500MB SPEED MAX. IN ADDITION...WRF-NAM AND HI-RES WRFS ACTUALLY SHOW A BIT OF JET COUPLING AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIRLY STRONG AND DEEP ASCENT. INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME AND EFFORT TO SATURATE...BUT ONCE THEY DO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BUT IMPRESSIVE PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/WRF-NAM BOTH SUGGEST MAXIMUM LIFT BECOMING CO-LOCATED WITH NEARLY 100MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES THOUGH THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE KEEPING AMOUNTS IN CHECK. HI-RES WRF-NMM (WHICH I`VE SEEN PERFORM WELL WITH F-GEN SET-UPS) SUGGESTS 0.10-0.20" OF QPF OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA WHICH COULD EASILY FLUFF UP TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW. PAVEMENT TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS COULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TOMORROW AND WITH LIMITED NOTICE ON THIS SNOWFALL IT COULD TURN INTO A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. lol, i thought the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What will the dewpoints be before the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I saw a flurry of all needles a couple hours ago, as a smaller tongue of WAA came through. The more potent WAA ahead of the cold front is becoming more respectable on radar, light snow reaching down into NW Iowa. HRRR shows a nice snow band from 10 pm to 1 am here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.25 precip in some areas, could be a lot if there are higher ratios. wouldn't count on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.21" for LAF on the NAM. It can't fook this up this close in, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.21" for LAF on the NAM. It can fook this up this close in, can it? HRRR looking good and Izzi seemed excited enough, you're probably in as good a spot as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 HRRR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.21" for LAF on the NAM. It can't fook this up this close in, can it? Another bump might be in order? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Another bump might be in order? Why not? 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thinking 1.5-2.5" here... last minute QPF bonuses pay off every once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS def drier with this particular clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 There's been about an hour of snow observed upstream in the La Crosse region. Radar suggests the band is intensifying a little, and there are some post-band snow showers developing. Very dynamic situation as this gets ready to transition from a weak band of snow to a good little storm down in IL and IN. Post front temp drops are pretty sharp right now, from the 20s to the single digits in an hour in upstream locations. That might be the most remarkable thing about this event for WI by far. It's up to 25 °F in the WI river valley btw, decent WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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