HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Once again the NAM is a bit warmer than the GFS and Euro Not much for qpf on any of the big 3, but we will take what we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 From BOX MONDAY NIGHT... THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BRING MILDER AIR AND INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE COMES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...PERHAPS A LITTLE SOONER IN CT. WE WILL TREND INCREASING HOURLY POPS STARTING AT 10 PM WITH CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY POPS TOWARD MORNING. SECOND QUESTION IS P-TYPE. FORECAST TEMPS ALOFT SHOW BELOW FREEZING VALUES ALL LEVELS AT 00Z...BUT WARMING INLAND BETWEEN 850 MB AND 925 MB AND AT ALL LEVELS IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD MEAN AN INITIAL SNOW PERIOD IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALL RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BY THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A SNOW/SLEET MIX IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE ANY MIXING LATE AT NIGHT. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...TEMPS MAY FALL A LITTLE MONDAY EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD RISE OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Sort of a mini version of last Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 BTV thinks the same thing, Dave. Noting the similarities between last Friday's system. Its a similar track with backside snows pretty similar as the low tracks for Vim Toot. Comma head in upstate NY then moves over northern VT with orographic enhancement adding to the situation. Looks like a good bet for 3-6" up this way with locally more depending on how well the upslope machine cranks it out. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WARM DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SUPPORTING A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING...PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE STORM TRACK OF THIS ONE COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKS STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE COMMA-HEAD DEFORMATION BAND...AND THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FELT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN AND LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A RESULT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This will not be like the last storm at all in SNE. Way different with a low going over or west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yeah we will not have a high pressure system north of Maine throughout the event...what we have is some pseudo-CAD as the airmass is initially cold and the high retreating offshore...but the winds quickly go SW and that means the icing period should be fairly short lived...but a few hours of ice (and maybe some snow initially) could make it pretty nasty on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yeah we will not have a high pressure system north of Maine throughout the event...what we have is some pseudo-CAD as the airmass is initially cold and the high retreating offshore...but the winds quickly go SW and that means the icing period should be fairly short lived...but a few hours of ice (and maybe some snow initially) could make it pretty nasty on the roads. These suck ... it's synoptically moving the cold air out as the system goes west. I suspect that is why the QPF fields are pretty light through the translation of the system, because with the cold air bodily moving out, the the total isentropic lift locally is somewhat mitigated. It's tough to "over-run" an air mass when the the air mass your trying to overrun is moving right along in the same direction. That said ... there is some speed shear so it will attempt to warm up aloft first, and that's why we get anything at all. For those feeling apoplectic about this winter, I guess you gotta be grateful for anything you get. Looks to me like a band of light snow passes through the area for most around 36 hours with steadily rising temps. I agree with the pseudo-CAD assessment, also enhanced by what I suspect will initially be some exceptionally dry air. Some hygroscopic cooling will feed-back into that I suspect. But...temps will rise toward 34 -40eventually, with perhaps an isolated pocket or two in a the deeper interior protected low spots maybe holding onto borderline ZR. Cold front comes through and then some flashing of sorts happens - that looks a jolt cool back between 60 and 72 hours, west to eat. 40 to 20 in just a few hours. The UKMET at 12z had an ~96 hour weak impulse with some implicit light snow, and now this run has that two. What is interesting to me overall is what I was mentioning to Scott a while ago; it seems as though despite the heights hell-bent on ending winter , the thicknesses seem to lag on that quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This sort of has the look of a band of -SN breaking out pretty far ahead. at 06z..I could see it snowing in a lot of areas tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 We will see a mix bag here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well, I did say a mini version...lol Not expecting much...maybe and inch of sloppy snow and some freezing drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 seems like an "OK" shot at a couple of inches of snow in spots tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yeah we will not have a high pressure system north of Maine throughout the event...what we have is some pseudo-CAD as the airmass is initially cold and the high retreating offshore...but the winds quickly go SW and that means the icing period should be fairly short lived...but a few hours of ice (and maybe some snow initially) could make it pretty nasty on the roads. Numerous superintendants got chewed out by the public Thurs morning. Maybe we get a delayed opening this time Wish the low was a little more SE, and it looks like crap anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 seems like an "OK" shot at a couple of inches of snow in spots tomorrow night. GEFS were pretty darn bullish on 1-2" here tomorrow night...we'll see how it pans out. That would be cool to get as it would probably ensure we do not have much loss of snow pack for when the low passes west of us. Create a "barrier", lol...have to find weenie moral victories where possible in this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This winter I find myself looking forward to even these possible small gains especially now that we finally have some snow on the ground. It makes me appreciate winter wx that much more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Numerous superintendants got chewed out by the public Thurs morning. Maybe we get a delayed opening this time Wish the low was a little more SE, and it looks like crap anyway I was surprised at the lack of school closing thursday morning...esp since the DOTs were pretty unprepared for it...most were expecting not much. My forecast was too low, but it was higher than the TV forecasts...which generally had a coating to an inch here and not much more for you. But there were school buses all over the roads here Thu morning, and it was ugly because they didn't really get plowing until about the time they were out...there was like nearly 3" of snow before they started plowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 I was surprised at the lack of school closing thursday morning...esp since the DOTs were pretty unprepared for it...most were expecting not much. My forecast was too low, but it was higher than the TV forecasts...which generally had a coating to an inch here and not much more for you. But there were school buses all over the roads here Thu morning, and it was ugly because they didn't really get plowing until about the time they were out...there was like nearly 3" of snow before they started plowing. Same here and at work. Our building has a pretty steep and long driveway with a brook passing under it. Sort of "U" shaped. The busses coming back down the hill after dropping off students could not get up the other end. Very nasty. Lots of accidents I had figured on ice, not snow, but they should have been prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GEFS were pretty darn bullish on 1-2" here tomorrow night...we'll see how it pans out. That would be cool to get as it would probably ensure we do not have much loss of snow pack for when the low passes west of us. Create a "barrier", lol...have to find weenie moral victories where possible in this winter so far. Any chance the barren CP sees any accumulation tomorrow night. The cold should be exiting from SW to NE, so I'd think NE MA could be in a good spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GEFS were pretty darn bullish on 1-2" here tomorrow night...we'll see how it pans out. That would be cool to get as it would probably ensure we do not have much loss of snow pack for when the low passes west of us. Create a "barrier", lol...have to find weenie moral victories where possible in this winter so far. 18z NAM was almost .3" qpf at ORH as snow maybe 1-2 (3?) followed by some fzdz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z NAM was almost .3" qpf at ORH as snow maybe 1-2 (3?) followed by some fzdz? Euro not as bullish, so gives me some pause. But I think we should get measurable anyway before some light freezing rain...then eventually light rain as the low passes west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 seems like an "OK" shot at a couple of inches of snow in spots tomorrow night. Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro not as bullish, so gives me some pause. But I think we should get measurable anyway before some light freezing rain...then eventually light rain as the low passes west. NWS has 37F here Tuesday and the 18z GFS looked pretty warm as the first low passing to our north in Ontario/Quebec looks to scour out a lot of the cold. Some of the local radio stations had 40s but that might be too mild for the microclimate here on campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 NWS has 37F here Tuesday and the 18z GFS looked pretty warm as the first low passing to our north in Ontario/Quebec looks to scour out a lot of the cold. Some of the local radio stations had 40s but that might be too mild for the microclimate here on campus. It should warm up as the low passes west...we don't have a classic CAD setup like last system. So everyone will torch into the upper 30s or lower 40s for a time eventually. But for a time some spots will hold onto a bit of icing...but it shouldn't be a huge deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I was surprised at the lack of school closing thursday morning...esp since the DOTs were pretty unprepared for it...most were expecting not much. My forecast was too low, but it was higher than the TV forecasts...which generally had a coating to an inch here and not much more for you. But there were school buses all over the roads here Thu morning, and it was ugly because they didn't really get plowing until about the time they were out...there was like nearly 3" of snow before they started plowing. I think the problem was they had to make the call at 5am and by that point there was a coating down and most forecasts were for it to change over by 7am so it would really only be borderline for high school buses. Hell, even you thought the changeover was coming at 6:30, then it didn't come until like 10am or so. In retrospect, not sure a delay would of helped because it was ripping here from 830-900. Then there was a period of drizzle then another brief period of snow before going back to rain again. The roads were pretty bad when I drove in at 8am. What also sucked was walking through the parking lot in 3" of water logged un-plowed slush at 2pm. With regards to this Tuesday, I'm hoping we can pull a miracle 2-3" and can somehow get a cancellation. Not expecting it, but my worst midterms Tuesday so I'll take any delay I can get lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I think the problem was they had to make the call at 5am and by that point there was a coating down and most forecasts were for it to change over by 7am so it would really only be borderline for high school buses. Hell, even you thought the changeover was coming at 6:30, then it didn't come until like 10am or so. In retrospect, not sure a delay would of helped because it was ripping here from 830-900. Then there was a period of drizzle then another brief period of snow before going back to rain again. The roads were pretty bad when I drove in at 8am. What also sucked was walking through the parking lot in 3" of water logged un-plowed slush at 2pm. With regards to this Tuesday, I'm hoping we can pull a miracle 2-3" and can somehow get a cancellation. Not expecting it, but my worst midterms Tuesday so I'll take any delay I can get lol. I'm not sure if they still do this anymore...but back in the day in the 1990s, we sometimes would get a delay that would be "upgraded" to a cancellation. Thursday is the type of situation they would have done it in...a situation where its probably prudent to delay it and see if it gets better...and when it doesn't, just call it. I had about 3 of those in the early to mid 1990s. I don't know if they still do that or not. Maybe its still an option but they just avoid it. Or coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'm not sure if they still do this anymore...but back in the day in the 1990s, we sometimes would get a delay that would be "upgraded" to a cancellation. Thursday is the type of situation they would have done it in...a situation where its probably prudent to delay it and see if it gets better...and when it doesn't, just call it. I had about 3 of those in the early to mid 1990s. I don't know if they still do that or not. Maybe its still an option but they just avoid it. Or coincidence. I've never had it...but there are some towns that do it. It happened for MPM's daughter on Thursday I think I remember him saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'm not sure if they still do this anymore...but back in the day in the 1990s, we sometimes would get a delay that would be "upgraded" to a cancellation. Thursday is the type of situation they would have done it in...a situation where its probably prudent to delay it and see if it gets better...and when it doesn't, just call it. I had about 3 of those in the early to mid 1990s. I don't know if they still do that or not. Maybe its still an option but they just avoid it. Or coincidence. We had that happen last year when I was a substitute teacher, and it happened a few times in high school. The delay gives them time to see if the roads will improve enough to have school. I went into town Thursday night to go to the bank and supermarket, and roads were pretty slick here in the Monadnocks. Conditions have obviously improved but a few slick spots remained as I drove back from watching the Giants game today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 00z NAM looks good for 1-2" across the interior...maybe even the interior CP in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 00z NAM looks good for 1-2" across the interior...maybe even the interior CP in MA. Too bad its the coldest of guidance right now...need the euro to get on board tonight. But yeah looks like 6z to 9-10z would be cold enough for snow. Probably too warm for morning commute problems as it seems to warm up by 12z except for maybe the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 00z NAM looks good for 1-2" across the interior...maybe even the interior CP in MA. It actually looks like the majority of the precip for the interior (at least by you) has the potential to be virtually all snow...by time the column warms significantly enough most of the moisture may be gone...with the first slug of precip anyways. Second slug of precip may not really arrive until sometime mid afternoon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A nice decent chunk of WAA moving in. I think the interior has a good shot of a weenie inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.