thunderbolt Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 with all this doom and gloom talk about this winter going down the crapper, I thought i would look at the latest ENSO for the end of this year 2012. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201201!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 with all this doom and gloom talk about this winter going down the crapper, I thought i would look at the latest ENSO for the end of this year 2012. http://www.ecmwf.int...plumes!201201!/ great weak nino..main analogs 63-64,68-69,76-77,02-03..all great winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 K2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Those plumes don't mean much. I forget if it was this past spring or the spring before but I know they showed an El Nino and of course we had the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 If it's a third-year nina, I'd be very concerned about our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 If it's a third-year nina, I'd be very concerned about our chances. Yes I'd agree with this. We need it to turn Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yes I'd agree with this. We need it to turn Nino. Whether the ENSO state is positive, negative or neutral, our wintry weather chances mostly depend on the Atlantic, other factors in the Pacific and the Artic. El Nino winters can suck just as badly as La Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Whether the ENSO state is positive, negative or neutral, our wintry weather chances mostly depend on the Atlantic, other factors in the Pacific and the Artic. El Nino winters can suck just as badly as La Nina winters. El Nino winters can suck like La Nina winters but are we more likely to see winter weather if the NAO/AO are neutral/positive in an El Nino (strength similar to this season's La Nina) compared to a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Whether the ENSO state is positive, negative or neutral, our wintry weather chances mostly depend on the Atlantic, other factors in the Pacific and the Artic. El Nino winters can suck just as badly as La Nina winters. At least it's a safe bet the weather will be interesting across the country. I take solace in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Whether the ENSO state is positive, negative or neutral, our wintry weather chances mostly depend on the Atlantic, other factors in the Pacific and the Artic. El Nino winters can suck just as badly as La Nina winters. Ninos are more likely to have a +PNA at least, and an active southern stream, giving us more storm chances when they can ride north up the coast. Ninas are far more likely to have crappy cutter and dry-clipper patterns like this that favor the Midwest or New England. The Atlantic certainly helps, but Ninos just as a blank slate are more likely to produce big storms here than Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If it's a third-year nina, I'd be very concerned about our chances. Why? Third-year Ninas are usually the best of the three. Consider the time frame from 1999-2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Why? Third-year Ninas are usually the best of the three. Consider the time frame from 1999-2001. 2000-2001 was more of a neutral one, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Ninos are more likely to have a +PNA at least, and an active southern stream, giving us more storm chances when they can ride north up the coast. Ninas are far more likely to have crappy cutter and dry-clipper patterns like this that favor the Midwest or New England. The Atlantic certainly helps, but Ninos just as a blank slate are more likely to produce big storms here than Ninas. That is true; but I'd rather hedge my chances in seeing a weak La Nina than a weak El Nino in any given year. Weak El Nino episodes typically are not strong enough to impact the sub-tropical jet in the winter as much as moderate to strong ones do. On the other hand, La Nina summers tend to have relatively more scorching temperatures and more active tropical cyclone seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 2000-2001 was more of a neutral one, right? Yeah, but that was partly my point! Third year Nina or Nino is generally weak. It's hard to sustain a strong anomaly that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah, but that was partly my point! Third year Nina or Nino is generally weak. It's hard to sustain a strong anomaly that long. Wasn't that also combined with the end of the +PDO cycle? 50-51 was the same deal in the last -PDO regime, and only 11.6" fell in Central Park that year. Ninas in a -PDO regime have been shown to act "worse" than Ninas in a +PDO regime because of the effect on the PNA, although those are rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 three year or longer la nina's.. JMA data has la nina/negative winters from 1869-70 to 1875-76...1872-73 was the best winter..1908-09 to 1910-11...1908-09 was the best winter...1915-16 to 1917-18...all three winters were great...1920-21 to 1922-23...1922-23 was the best winter...1942-43 to 1945-46...1945-46 was the best winter...1954-55 to 1956-57...1955-56 was the best winter...1973-74 to 1975-76...1973-74 was the best winter...1998-99 to 2000-01...2000-01 was the best winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.