Freezing rain/sleet threat Monday night - NW burbs, LV, Poconos

[LVblizzard]

Models are indicating that temps will remain below freezing for at least part of tomorrow night while the precip moves in. As usual, the Poconos have the greatest chance of seeing moderate accumulations, probably between .1-.25". The Lehigh Valley will get in on it, too, with probably up to .1". The NW suburbs of Philly could also see some freezing rain at the onset, but any impact there will be minimal.

I would post a model image here, but I'm on my phone. So I'd just like to hear people's thoughts about tomorrow night.

[Rainshadow]

Agree. Only caveat on the southern extension is that the new NAM has had a cold low level thermal bias (a run last week gave the Poconos an ice storm) in our area this winter, so would like to see other model corroboration. I'm off so it may be there in the other models also. Regardless we are going to be and have been cold moving into this (vs last week) and there will be some snow on the ground in parts of the Poconos.

[phlwx]

Models are indicating that temps will remain below freezing for at least part of tomorrow night while the precip moves in. As usual, the Poconos have the greatest chance of seeing moderate accumulations, probably between .1-.25". The Lehigh Valley will get in on it, too, with probably up to .1". The NW suburbs of Philly could also see some freezing rain at the onset, but any impact there will be minimal.

I would post a model image here, but I'm on my phone. So I'd just like to hear people's thoughts about tomorrow night.

Not really keen in immediate burbs getting in on this. This is more Quakertown, Chescowx, and iceman56 type "north/west" and notsomuch south of the Turnpike.

Agree. Only caveat on the southern extension is that the new NAM has had a cold low level thermal bias (a run last week gave the Poconos an ice storm) in our area this winter, so would like to see other model corroboration. I'm off so it may be there in the other models also. Regardless we are going to be and have been cold moving into this (vs last week) and there will be some snow on the ground in parts of the Poconos.

GFS had it in 0z run but it was more freezing drizzle/sleet ( light green shade) than a bonafide freezing rain event.

[phlwx]

FWIW, here's the graphic on the high res NAM (good thru 12z tomorrow)...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_12z/cld42.gif

[Rainshadow]

Not really keen in immediate burbs getting in on this. This is more Quakertown, Chescowx, and iceman56 type "north/west" and notsomuch south of the Turnpike.

GFS had it in 0z run but it was more freezing drizzle/sleet ( light green shade) than a bonafide freezing rain event.

Thanks for making Rib's day.

[phlwx]

yeah...really looks like this is going to be Quakertown-Reading and points north...

[eastonwx]

low off 8.8° this AM. What's everyone's thoughts on possibilities of some sleet, or will this be strictly freezing rain?

[Rainshadow]

low off 8.8° this AM. What's everyone's thoughts on possibilities of some sleet, or will this be strictly freezing rain?

I could see some sleet occurring, espeically up your way.

[dssbss]

_{Temps coming up quicly already up to 25 in Reading. We need the clouds to move in or we will be all rain here in Berks.}

[ChescoWx]

Current Wxsim has 0.18" of ZR with temps rising above freezing by 6am tomorrow AM. Nothing in the current point and click but I wouldn't be surprised

Currently

Partly Sunny 32.1

DP 17.3

Wxsim forecast

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the evening, then a chance of a mix of freezing rain, rain, and sleet after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 20. Wind south around 11 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.

[LVblizzard]

Winter weather advisory for Lehigh/Berks/northern Bucks until 6 am, Carbon/Monroe/Northampton until 9 am. Looks like it could be pretty much any type of wintry precip to start. The HRRR and some SREF members have shown some snow in eastern PA and parts of NJ, and sleet is a possibility because 925mb temps are colder than 850mb temps.

[wdrag]

We'll be looking for your observed wintry weather as pcpn breaks out between 7PM and 10 PM this evening in e PA and NNJ. Location and wx... definitely can see a touch of snow on the front end. HRRR does not look very good...unsure about the SPC WRF attm... we are hopeful that KMPO data will be fixed by 6PM but no promises. Thanks in advance for your assistance, Walt

[anthonyweather]

Wfmz says frozen precip till 8 or 9am. Glenn seems to say the same thing, penndot is brining. Should be interesting

[eastonwx]

Wfmz says frozen precip till 8 or 9am. Glenn seems to say the same thing, penndot is brining. Should be interesting

Ed Hanna said at 5 that in most of LV, expect temps to rise above freezing around 5-8AM, 9-10AM in the Poconos.

[anthonyweather]

Thats what broderick said at 4, eds latest face book update was exactly what you said

[atownwxwatcher]

First we have to get below freezing to rise above freezing...as of 5 PM ABE is sitting at 34 degrees with a S wind of 8 MPH

[eastonwx]

Thats what broderick said at 4, eds latest face book update was exactly what you said

probably their earlier report, Ed's was the updated perhaps. Will wait and see how it all plays out, I guess

[wdrag]

Looks like KMPO has rts for its temps. still need to see it be consistent for the nxt hour or so. wd/kphi 6p/16

[phlwx]

First we have to get below freezing to rise above freezing...as of 5 PM ABE is sitting at 34 degrees with a S wind of 8 MPH

Dewp is 14...temps will drop a bit when the rain starts...might go down to 31 or so

[chrisNJ]

I want plain rain, as I get to leave my house in Easton at around 5 AM, heading into Jersey. Once I get on 78, I would imagine the roads would be ok. I want snow! As of now, looks like snow virga approaching the area.

[atownwxwatcher]

Allentown Lehigh Valley International Airport

Lat: 40.66 Lon: -75.43 Elev: 390

Last Update on Jan 16, 6:51 pm EST

Overcast

35 °F

(2 °C)

Temperature is still rising here AT ABE..

[LVblizzard]

Temp holding steady just above freezing, looking at some weather stations around the area.

[wederwarrior]

hovering at 32.2 here

valley looks a touch warmer

This one is gonna be close for some freezing precip

nobody likes 33 and rain.....

[Parsley]

Currently sleeting here. 35 degrees.

[PAPPG]

Currently sleeting here. 35 degrees.

Same here. Looks like no melt on untreated surfaces. If it keeps up, driveway will be a glaze.

Dewpoint shot up from 15 earlier this pm to now 21. (..it was a low of 6 at 3am)

[dssbss]

Looks like rain tonight in Berks county... At least near reading...too warm

[snowwors2]

Dewp is 14...temps will drop a bit when the rain starts...might go down to 31 or so

I remember hearing that, at the onset of precipitation, a rule of thumb is that temp drops ~ 1/3 the difference between temp and dew point:

for example: 37f - 16dp = 21

21/3 = 7

37f - 7f = 30f

is this roughly correct as a general rule?

[Parsley]

Same here. Looks like no melt on untreated surfaces. If it keeps up, driveway will be a glaze.

Dewpoint shot up from 15 earlier this pm to now 21. (..it was a low of 6 at 3am)

Yup, (side) road was lightly covered rather quickly........luckily the sleet shower has passed. Should be interesting with the larger area of precipitation moving in from the west.

[JTA66]

Sleet passed through Lansdale 7:15-7:30. Very fine film on the pavement. Temp up to 34.7, so it's not going to stick around for long.

[dssbss]

Sleeting @ 7:50 in north Reading